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Surprising Upturn for the Energy Sector

Many are thinking oil and natgas are due a pullback, and I sure can't say they are wrong.
However, if there is a pullback, I believe it will be shallow and short lived.
The massive flood of Obamamoney has started flowing into the system. Serious inflation projections are about to be tested.
Historically, there has never been such an injection of capital of this magnitude. In the same vein, we will have never experienced the inflationary pressure that comes with such.

In addition, I still believe that some people view "the market" in what I call short term tunnel vision. They are measuring the oil and gas market with short sighted "current market conditions".
The market actually is looking ahead, and the pending economic recovery is outweighing ALL of the standard measures of supply and demand.
This is due to the fact that demand will overwhelm the currently suppressed supply in very short order with any recovery.
Yes, supply can be added, but it always comes after prices have escalated.

To me, it would be too risky to be shorting any commodity, (especially oil and natgas) or most any energy stock.

NYT: The Great American Drilling Boom Is Over

How many times have we heard this type sentiment in the past. (Great drilling boom is over).
I remember when publications were espousing how the world was "awash in oil". Months later there were shortages driving the price to new highs.

Perhaps this article, in and of itself, is telling.

Oil Futures Market: Unwinding the Bubble

Alex,
You are certainly cocky in your assumption that you "know" what the long term price of oil should be.

Supply and demand will determine the price of oil as it always does.
The speculators have been incorporated into the pricing mechanism. Their effect on prices is consequential in the near term but over the long term it is negligible as it will average out with speculated low prices that will be short lived like the extreme highs.

There are many that believe the $147/bbl price is cheap based on available supply for the long term. It seems to me, that if one believes in markets and the law of supply and demand, crude oil is headed north again very soon.

Low prices kill supply development and increase demand. It is a combination punch that will rock most markets.

Yeah I am a believer in peak oil... Better safe than sorry.
I am a small indendent producer in Texas. I have cut my production as a result of the decline in prices. There are thousands of producers like myself who have done the same.