jayminho

How Low Can the Dollar Go?

have you ever heard about a theory called "the earth is not the center of the universe" ??

this also apply to america son.
soon, you may find out that there other countries in the planet with potential and growing, internal market buying power.

now,
lets not be foolish, 1.3 billion chinese, 200 million brazilians and 1.1 billion indians will not become middle class(and start buying) overnight, just like china will not dump USD overnight.
so, for sure, I DO BELIEVE USD HAS A SHORT TERM REBOUND.
but look beyond, 20 years from now, maybe, in a multi-polarized world, US may not be the center of everything. no doubt, it wont lose its status as a super power, however, no longer a mega-power.


On Sep 14 05:38 AM globalview99 wrote:

> The so-called fall of the Dollar is a head fake sucking in easy money
> who think that because of the huge deficits, the US will need to
> ratchet up interest rates to attract foreign purchases of US debt.
>
>
> But that's not going to happen because the Japanese CB as well as
> other export-driven economies CB's (Germany, China, and other Asean
> Group exporters) upon looking over the precipice of continued falling
> exports (to the US) and unacceptable high unemployment, will intervene
> and buy up Treasury notes (thereby increasing exchange rates and
> strenghtening the USD) just to raise the buying power of US consumers
> which will raise their level of exports and keep people employed.
> It's a matter of politics and survival; and you can bet on it.<br/>
>
> Just remember, the US consumer generates some 16% of global trade;
> if the Dollar remains weak and US consumers cut back on their buying
> (which has already happened) the economies of nations that export
> to the US are likewise affected. So given the choice of sitting
> on USD reserves and watching their employment rolls dramatically
> fall and pople on the streets demanding jobs and bailouts to pay
> mortgages, foreign governements will buy up US T Bills at low rates
> to keep the economy humming.
>
> Conversely, the US government is delighted with a weak dollar as
> a natural barrier for US consumers to buy US goods rather than foreign
> goods. So the US is really in the catbird seat with a win win scenario
> going forward.

Can Oil Go Even Higher?

oil will go up not because of us, acctually, forget us.
oil will go up due to the non stoping internal market developing of china, india and brazil, (probably some others, but those are the main players)

everything is now connected to china.
what they will do, what they wont.

will they dump their 2t ?
are they keep switching their 2t usd accumulated through decades to commodoties (like investment in petrobras and similars?)
what about their internal market ? infra structure ?
they move the world now.