jayminho

Brazilian Bovespa Sinks: Expect More Weakness in the Near Future

the only short position i want to own is AIG. thats it.

The Future of Brazilian Markets: A Private Equity Perspective

my bets for brazil are;

ITUB, BBD, and STD
the first two, are two major brazilian banks.
credit is abundant, and bankings are lending for real state (yes, we are creating our own real state bubble, which, will eventually, burst. but for now, take advantages of it.)

then you STD (santander) a spanish bank, largest european bank, who offset all his losses in europe by.. (yep, exactly!) the investments in brazil real state. they are huge, acquired some minor banks, and are also in this new and being formed, brazilian real state bubble trend.
by the way: STD is also a dividend play; quartly paying about .10 to .20+ cents a share regularly, and trading at 11.xx its more than an opportunity.

with that said;

I now introduce SID
it is an infratructure play
SID, is responsible for a lot of the steel used in everything from citzen living buldings, to bridges, to roads, basically, everything they are in. governamental and non-governamental.
rumors, say they got picked to provide all the steel to the PAC project (PAC stands for PROGRAMA ACELERACAO CRESCIMENTO - sort of; SPEED GROWING PROGRAM) a type of stimus package, for infrastructure.

I believe brazil is living, what US lived during the 50s to 70s (in a minor scale of course, but still, its what we are living here) when US were building roads, paving streets, lending money to citzens purchase their first home, and so on.. way before, it transfered all it manufacture structure to eastern countries..
thats what brazil is living now.
it will be kind of a deja vu, as we all know, sooner or later, just like in US, all this things will end here, so, it will be time to short everything, and the country will have to reinvent itself, but by now.. ITUB, BBD and STD are the banks to go, and SID is the infrastructure/commodity to play.

good luck.

BRIC to BIC to BICI?

russia is a one trick poney. without gas.. no russia!