Brahm

Peak Oil Stocks for the Future

This article is well-intentioned, and the primary thesis behind it that price should determine supply and demand and hence solve the energy conundrum is sound. However, the problem comes up when the author points to some directions and potential solutions of which he does not know enough. This actually is one of the primary problems why an expeditious solution to the problem is not going to be easy. There are too many amateurs around, though having good foundations in economic and financial analysis, are not sophisticated enough about the sciences and the engineering. Even scientists and engineers per se fail on these issues very frequently because they often lack the wide range of knowledge and experience they shouild have for making an apt contribution. One only has one life-time to live and contribute. Often it takes more than that to genrate the right approaches!

The author mentions CTL from coal. Well, he is right that this could have been intiated long ago (I was a manager of some Federal programs relating to this area in the distant past!) However, in the context of global warming threatening us, this would be one of the most misguided and horrible approaches to solve our energy problem. The efficiency of converting coal through CTL is only about 50%. Petroleum cracking to yield the spectrum of products we use (diesel, gasoline, and chemicals, etc) has an efficiency of about 90%. Think about doubling CO2 when anyone mentions CTL from coal, and also efficiency! Perhaps, more than doubling CO2, if bureaucrats, engineers and other less sophisticated persons are willing to consider that it takes a lot more to mine coal (think diesel powered heavy equipment, electricity, etc) , transport it by rail/truck, etc. I would not be surprised if someone comes up with an overall efficiency of less than 40%, after factoring these issues. Pumping petroleum or gas out of the ground and transporting it by pipe and/or ships is far more efficient, and hence less CO2 polluting. Petroleum has far more hydrogen in it than coal, and unit energy per unit energy generates significantly less CO2 than the use of liquids derived through CTL from coal.

Most of the public discussions now on the subject of CO2 is dominated be politicians, public policy "experts"/do-gooders , bureaucrats and so-called environmentalists who do not have enouch knowledge at their command. Sadly, they do not want to seek out the few well-grounded people available(such as your's truely) who shun the public limelight or the rough and tumble of that come from swollen egos. Quite often they don't have the time and patience for acquiring the deep real knowledge required. That is how we have gotten into the wrong tracks like producing alcohol from grain which is ruining our planet and is going to increase poverty around!

There are other statements in the article which cannot be supported by rigorous scientific analysis, though the ideas seem to bew current wisdom in the public domain. In a nut-shell, without going through the sophisticated reasons like the above and others relating to gas, power, etc., the approach of producing CTL from natural gas is also not a good idea. It should be used in other ways to meet our energy needs, and at the same time enhance our global warming interests. But this is a very sophisticated discussion which has not even been touched yet, as far as I know.