p. smith

Enterprise Software: More Room For Downside Surprises

For ERP software vendors like ORCL and SAP... yes.

For best breed software and consulting vendors such as supply chain management leader i2 technologies and SaaS vendors sepecially in HR and ACCOUNTING, 2008-2012 is the rapid growth period.

SAP and ORCL are not growing anymore, their decline will become obvious by end of this year...

SAP's Apotheker Tries To Explain Problems

SAP and ORCL are in muture industry, the ERP software; also known as “package software”.

No growth, they are buying companies just to milk the cow for maintainance revenue and that can only diminish over time.

The growth in software area is in SaaS area such as the “on-demand” model like CRM, i2/IBM freight matrix or the solution delivery model like the rest of i2 SCM results delivery.

SAP and ORCL are two big ships, it’ll take them 3 years to turn their business model to SaaS if not longer.

Customers are buying the results, they don’t want to buy software or technology any more…. the web 2.0 and the software 2.0 are here.

SAP Signals Weakness

4/30/2008 came and gone.

Today is the date i2 and SAP went to court, i2 is suing SAP for infringing 7 of its SCM patends involving about 300 cases/deals.

Can you believe that the Markman hearing is over?

Although we don't know how it went now but we know i2 was well prepared and dead serious about winning this case for several reasons.

1. SAP used the partnership to steal the patented technologies from i2.

2. SAP hired i2 employees who were familiar with the technologies to develop products with similiar capability to compete with i2.

3. SAP bad-mouthed i2 to scare potential customers from buying i2 products products by spreading rumors that i2 will be going out of business.

If wins the case, i2 intends to seek the maximum damage to SAP including court injunction to prohibit SAP from selling its products and servicing its customers together with maximum monetary damage.

i2 does not intend to license its technologies to SAP.

SAP had better be praying hard that i2 does not win the case, otherwise the loss will be devastating.

i2 Technologies' Turnaround: Part I

4/30/2008 comes and goes.

Today is the date i2 and SAP went to court, i2 is suing SAP for infringing 7 of its SCM patends involving about 300 cases/deals.

Can you believe that the Markman hearing is over?

Although we don't know how it went now but we know i2 was well prepared and dead serious about winning this case for several reasons.

1. SAP used the partnership to steal the patented technologies from i2.

2. SAP hired i2 employees who were familiar with the technologies to develop products with similiar capability to compete with i2.

3. SAP bad-mouthed i2 to scare potential customers from buying i2 products products by spreading rumors that i2 will be going out of business.

If wins the case, i2 intends to seek the maximum damage to SAP including court injunction to prohibit SAP from selling its products and servicing its customers together with maximum monetary damage.

i2 do not intend to license its technologies to SAP.

SAP had better be praying hard that i2 do not win the case, otherwise the loss will be devastating.

i2 Technologies' Turnaround: Part I

By the way... your so called McGrath and his team were McGrath, B. Stinnet and J. Cummings.

Stinnet was obviously another corp. hopper, very expensive but very unimpressive in terms of performance. A smooth talker but more like a car saleswoman, as to SCM, I don't think she can have a deep conversation with a client who needed help.

As to J. Cummings, he was the biggest joke. Nobody can stay awake after listening to his presentation for 10 minutes. An i2 shareholder got so pissed and asked McGrath how in the world did the guy get that job.

Thank God the team is all out of i2.

McGrath was a quick cost cutter or so-called a chain-saw and he was more than fairly compensated. The i2 board should have let him go 7 months earlier; in other words, the renewed of his last year contract was a mistake and they had to let him go 5 months before the term ended.

As to the two Wall Street analysts mentioned, you just have to listen to them asking questions at i2 conference calls to realize how clueless these two were. When i2 had a good quarter, they move their target a few bucks higher and vise versa, these people have out-lived their usefulness since i2 is all on fair disclosure.

i2 Technologies' Turnaround: Part I

The contribution of McGrath was cutting cost and selling asset to raie money but he did not grow the revenue, and he wasn't spending much time with i2 clients like i2 executives did and do now.

It cost almost 12 cents per share per year of i2 earnings to have McGrath, he was paid $1 million plus and he ran over $1 million in charter plane and huge stocks and stock options and all kind of perks you can think of. This man is a typical greed, how can someone ran that kind of tab while the company and all its shareholders were trying to grab a piece of wood just to stay alive?

Some people don't like Chatterjee but this man is very well respected in i2 and in SCM world. He was born in India with a little accent like all foreign born Americans but he's getting a lot better in presiding the earning conference calls.

Some of those American born CEO's are such smooth talkers, they scar me to death.