DaveMcBlues's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/184591/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/91378-craftmade-international-undervalued?source=feed#comment-348853 348853
DaveMcBlues@gmail.com


On Aug 18 07:15 PM Reyer wrote:

> Thanks DaveMcBlues, excellent comment!
>
> Craftmade might very well be a company in secular decline. That is
> always something to consider when valuing a company in order to avoid
> value traps. Another way to look at a company in secular decline
> is the eventual liquidation value of the company.
>
> Craftmade is still profitable and cash flow positive, it seems premature
> right now to conclude they will go bankrupt however your point is
> excellent and I agree, there is a lot of risk with their business
> model.
>
> If Craftmade eventually does go out of business what should it be
> worth today? I would work out a liquidation value for the company
> based on discounts to hard assets if you believe this will happen.
> Or, just don't swing at it.
>
> -Reyer.]]> Wed, 07 Jan 2009 13:38:52 -0500
DaveMcBlues@gmail.com


On Aug 18 07:15 PM Reyer wrote:

> Thanks DaveMcBlues, excellent comment!
>
> Craftmade might very well be a company in secular decline. That is
> always something to consider when valuing a company in order to avoid
> value traps. Another way to look at a company in secular decline
> is the eventual liquidation value of the company.
>
> Craftmade is still profitable and cash flow positive, it seems premature
> right now to conclude they will go bankrupt however your point is
> excellent and I agree, there is a lot of risk with their business
> model.
>
> If Craftmade eventually does go out of business what should it be
> worth today? I would work out a liquidation value for the company
> based on discounts to hard assets if you believe this will happen.
> Or, just don't swing at it.
>
> -Reyer.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100387-bad-mortgages-are-only-the-beginning?source=feed#comment-284306 284306
Assume: $300 million citizens in USA, 200 million passenger vehicles on the road, 20% are currently under lease, 40% are Trucks and SUVs (which have taken a beating in market values as of recent), and a presumed $7,500 expected deficiency between residual and market value at end of lease term.

Do the math... That's $120 BILLION of losses, that to the best of my knowledge hasn't yet been recognized by financial institutions at large.

IMHO, the $120 billion pails in comparison to the larger problem of consumer finance noted in your posting above.]]> Fri, 17 Oct 2008 07:13:06 -0400
Assume: $300 million citizens in USA, 200 million passenger vehicles on the road, 20% are currently under lease, 40% are Trucks and SUVs (which have taken a beating in market values as of recent), and a presumed $7,500 expected deficiency between residual and market value at end of lease term.

Do the math... That's $120 BILLION of losses, that to the best of my knowledge hasn't yet been recognized by financial institutions at large.

IMHO, the $120 billion pails in comparison to the larger problem of consumer finance noted in your posting above.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98905-why-you-should-keep-an-eye-on-the-credit-markets?source=feed#comment-276464 276464
The interest cost is far less than the business interruption cost in the case that the banking system freezes and contractual advance provisions are not honored by the banks.

It's not much of a stretch to see that happening in the near term.

If anyone follows my advise, please make sure they also consider diversifying cash funds to make sure they are within protected (FIDC) limits on cash advances.]]> Wed, 08 Oct 2008 00:08:49 -0400
The interest cost is far less than the business interruption cost in the case that the banking system freezes and contractual advance provisions are not honored by the banks.

It's not much of a stretch to see that happening in the near term.

If anyone follows my advise, please make sure they also consider diversifying cash funds to make sure they are within protected (FIDC) limits on cash advances.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91378-craftmade-international-undervalued?source=feed#comment-233017 233017
Big Box retailers are constantly finding ways to go direct to China to source things like lights, fans, air conditioners, etc. I don't think CRFT has realized the full impact of this trend and I don't imagine they have any real intellectual property to protect (with the exception of this season's design on products they sell).

All one has to do is look at the demise of Fedders (FJCC.pk) to see what happens when the Big Box retailers squeeze you out. Fedders business model and that of CRFT are almost identical... just different products.]]> Mon, 18 Aug 2008 09:41:04 -0400
Big Box retailers are constantly finding ways to go direct to China to source things like lights, fans, air conditioners, etc. I don't think CRFT has realized the full impact of this trend and I don't imagine they have any real intellectual property to protect (with the exception of this season's design on products they sell).

All one has to do is look at the demise of Fedders (FJCC.pk) to see what happens when the Big Box retailers squeeze you out. Fedders business model and that of CRFT are almost identical... just different products.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74387-u-s-unemployment-short-and-rare?source=feed#comment-158162 158162
Housing prices here are actually UP in desirable neighborhoods and inventory is not much at all. Those neighborhoods that attracted subprime borrowers may be experiencing more difficulties... probably so.]]> Mon, 28 Apr 2008 15:54:30 -0400
Housing prices here are actually UP in desirable neighborhoods and inventory is not much at all. Those neighborhoods that attracted subprime borrowers may be experiencing more difficulties... probably so.]]>