Loup-Garou

Why Is Oil Creeping Back Up?

Just a guess, but it is conceivable there are some Sovereign Wealth Funds doing all they can to drive up oil prices.This includes taling large positions in futures markets.

In the middle east, social unrest comes when the government can no longer pay for services wanted by citizens. (applies domestically also).

Considering the declared policies of this administration and Congress, there is a huge risk in owning any U.S. based oil stock. Payback and punitive measures are now policy in the U.S. For risk aversive folks (moi) companies outside U.S. look more attractive.

The Good, The Bad, And the Inaccurate Oil Forecasts

So far, the comments seem more valuable and informative than the article.

In the stock and commodities markets it is usually easier to predict WHAT is

going to happen than WHEN it is going to happen.

The next terrorist attack of scale will drive oil over $100. Sure. But when?

2009 Oil Forecast Down to $50 - TD Newcrest

Patience will likely pay off. Roger Conrad likes this stock--of course he is a great bull on oil. It is a fairly large operation. I own it and am happy with it so far.

Geologist: In Terms of Supply and Demand, the Oil Peak Is Past

Great article. As usual, comments are even better than the article.

The talking heads on TV make it sound as though oil will be replaced by the alternatives, tomorrow, or next week at latest. Meanwhile, don't invest in a buggywhip factory as we said in the 30s.

Oil will be around until affordable alternatives get here.

$200 Oil: Before Decade's End, Not Year's

Exceellent article. The comments are even better, except for the confused fellow re: decade.

Oil Prices, Global GDP, and Net Oil Exports

An extremely helpful article. The chart is breathtaking.

If you believe that in the oil markets prices are set at

the margins, then higher prices can be anticipated.

Confirmatory Bias and Oil Investing

Politics, domestic and international, has a tremendous effect on oil prices. There is no physical lack of oil under the surface. My estimate is the Saudi lift price per barrel is $5 or so. Whether they can or cannot increase production, and by what factor, is a matter of great dispute. Guessing which way the oil price cat will jump requires a lot of attention to the human political factor in addition to the physical and geologic factors.

Oil at New Highs: Heading to the Exit Lane

There are multiple exit lanes. Each has its own peculiar political no-go signs. Nobody writes much about petrochemicals--just about fuel. For America, fuel is only about half our 22 million bpd consumption.

Maybe "You just can't get to the post office from here." Or more likely, a lack of political leadership to lay out the alternatives to the public, develop a national dialogue, and make decisions.

So You Think Oil’s Expensive Now?

"All" the risks are unknown, and cannot be fully priced in. Many oil related stocks still trade at low multiples of earnings, as though the "correct" price is $70 bbl. Some of the potential supply disruptions are very real and have high probability. The demand destruction factors seem to be over the horizon.

Now we see through a glass darkly. After Labor Day we shall see more clearly.

Oil Prices and Political Energy

Please remember oil is not just fuel. It is feedstock for our petrochemical industry. There are multiple solutions for the "high price" of gasoline and oil. So far, America does not have the national will, the political will, to adopt and carry out the solutions.

There is no national will to fight terrorism either. If there were, Congress would have declared War. The terrorists, whose religion dare not be named, are planning and attacking the infrastructure that brings the oil supply to our economy. Weep for America. We were a great country once.

Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (6/16/08)

Good analytical tool.