ewr

Orient Paper: Why Boring Stocks Beat Hot IPOs

good question - it is very easy to misread information on-line.
With great trepidation I have tried to recreate the path from where I found this info.

if you go to opai.ob under yahoo finance and check the cash flow statement, quarterly data, I see a change in cash of (721), meaning a decrease in cash, which I have called "negative".

re net working capital: in order for net working capital to be positive, current assets must be greater than total liabilities.
i.e. current asset - total liabilities = net working capital
This is a rather conservative approach but provides the margin of safety that B. Graham was suggesting. Again, same source as above, balance sheet, quarterly data, 30-june -09 column.

the real problem I have with this investment is that it seems too late. I am exploring ways of buying chinese small caps otc. before they have some huge run up.

On Sep 30 04:25 PM WhiteTiger wrote:

> Hello,
> Please explain. You mention that "cash flow per the MRQ cash flow
> statement is negative."
>
> I see a positive cashflow figure of $5.08 million.
>
> I also see your point regarding OPAI cash position, but don't necessarily
> agree with your assessment of insolvency. There current assets are
> still more than current liabilities.
>
> Here is a statement right out of the 10Q:
>
> "We had net working capital of $5,387,582 at June 30, 2009, an increase
> of $6,553,377 over a net working capital deficit of ($1,165,795)
> at December 31, 2008"
>
> Can you please provide me with your net-working calculation formula?
> Perhaps you are reading an old filing?
>
> Thanks.
> On Sep 30 07:36 AM ewr wrote:

Orient Paper: Why Boring Stocks Beat Hot IPOs

An interesting suggestion. As some famous CEO of General Motors ( I think ) once said: " if there are no arguments against (any proposal ), there are no arguments for ". My cursory review produced the following:

net working capital is negative
the stock is already up almost 2000 % ( yes two thousand ) YTD
cash is less than current liabilities ( in other words close to one definition of insolvency )
cash flow per the MRQ cash flow statement is negative
i.e. the company is burning its cash - mostly on capital expenditures

Still the stock may very well go up several times.

Despite Dedicated ETFs, No Reliable Way to Play Natural Gas

consider FCG

Upstream MLPs and Canadian Royalty Trusts: High Return, High Risk?

I have been interested in the surroundings to this question for a long time, i.e since Steven Harper and his Conservative government legislated the end of the favorable tax regime for income trusts ( except REITS,) whenever it was, perhaps about 2 years ago.

I think that the businesses that comprise the non REIT income trust sector will convert to ordinary corporate status. They probably have no other choice and this is already happening. We then will have to examine the desirability of owning these businesses as individual companies. Although the tax hit will probably be only about 35%, I personally will not find investing in any of the stocks that previously comprised some sector income trust, as a good idea. There are and will be much more sound investments available.

My own idea is as follows: recognising the demise of the benefits of investing in income trusts, most sensible investors are going to pull out. Where will all this money go ? I do believe that a large proportion of income trust investors were in it for the yield. The only remaining somewhat low risk, but high yield ( yes I know this is somewhat of a contradition) will be the REITs. This is the reason that I think that REITs are a good investment now; for the current yield, and for the inevitable capital gains as we aprroach 2011. These gains will come from the transer of money from the defunct income trusts to the REIT sector.

I would be very interested to read anyone's comments on the above.

On Apr 29 02:17 AM ewr wrote:

> This is a question rather than a comment. Does anyone have any thoughts
> on what will happen to the non REIT Income Trust Sector (e.g. the
> Income Trust Index as represented by CIT.UN ) as we approach 2011,
> the date when non REIT Income Trusts lose their current tax status
> ?

Losing Trades: When to Double Down

I bought TBT at an average cost ot 41.40. It is currently (today) slightly above water, at which I am a little (pleasantly) surprised. My thinking was and is, that interest rates cannot go much or any lower. At some point, possibly 1-2 years from now, inflation is going to kick in and the Fed wil have to raise interest rates. Then TBT should go up. I am prepared to wait. If TBT does go below my average cost, I will probably buy some more, as I still believe that it must eventually go up, because as of today, the Fed only has .25 percent room to lower interest rates. Is there any thing wrong with this scenario ?

Corporate Bonds: Discounting Depression

For those of us who are not traders, and are investing with a longer than 1 year horizon, and since interest rates can hardly go lower, they must eventually go up. Sure, this might take a few years. However, since bonds vary inversely to interest rates, isn't buying bonds now something to avoid, unless you expect to buy in and trade out at a quick profit, if it occurs ?

Global Investing Economic Outlook for 2009

how can a comment, which actually appears sensible, be taken seriously, if the author cannot spell credibly ?


On Dec 21 07:57 PM John Lounsbury wrote:

> Global Investing Editor - - -
>
> What October 10 low are you referring to? The DJIA, S&P 500 and
> NASDAQ all bottomed (so far) on November 20. Making the October 10
> statement without explaining why you pick that date damages your
> credability.
>
> That being said, some of your thoughts seem to have some merit, but
> I, for one, would like more detailed analysis shown. Maybe less breadth
> and more depth would be more useful. Don't let my criticism stop
> your posting - please try to take it as constructive.

Why Gold Hasn't Been a Hedge Against Inflation

Some interesting points, accompanied by very suspect English. I, along with, presumably, many other investors, are very wary of the value of commentary that can not take the trouble to express itself correcty. Does this carry over into the care with which the comments have been researched ?

Upstream MLPs and Canadian Royalty Trusts: High Return, High Risk?

This is a question rather than a comment. Does anyone have any thoughts on what will happen to the non REIT Income Trust Sector (e.g. the Income Trust Index as represented by CIT.UN ) as we approach 2011, the date when non REIT Income Trusts lose their current tax status ?