Marcelo Brazil

Petroleo Brasileiro: Reality Begins to Bite

PBR Brazilian Investor View : Pay attention to FX effect on this down trend (BRL went from 1.65 USD to 1.70) so much of the movement was an fx effect.
Points that i agree in the article :
1- size of this last discover still unknow (But remember last discover started same way and after it was confirmed true)
2- Very expensive to reach the dark gold, oil will have to keep high prices to justify the investment.

Points to Consider not mentioned on the article.
1- Even if this Last discover won´t get its size confirmed, petrobras has a huge size of brazilian shore that havent been studied yet, so you can expect news on the next years.
2- Brazilian Gorvenement is start to talk about making it more difficult to overseas companies to explore Brazilian shore, so .... More protection for Petrobras
3- 1 of PBR major problems is the Gasoline/Diesel controlled prices in Brazil, studies says that PBR has a 30% difference from international prices, and PBR is starting to pressure gorvenement to increase prices, we can expect a raise about 5 to 8% in a few months.
4- Brazil in a long term (very long term 15 years min) will be in front of nigeria in production, and Brazil has no territory conflics whatsoever, Brazil has no Nature Disasters, Brazil has one of the most stable political scenes in Latin America.
5- Brazil is going to be Investment Grade in a 1 - 2 year, PBR is the strongest public company in the country, so ......

Well I agree that PBR maybe be good to short ia a short term view because it has been trading on speculation on the new discover, and maybe things are not the way that has been promoted.
But if you think long term BUY PBR ..... dont worrie about short term problems, Just look a 5year graph .... The trend will continue to be UP, UP and UP .......

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