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Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

While the president can be a big factor in the economic direction and policies - I think it is the dynamic between the president and mix of party loyalties in congress that is the prime determinant of policy or economic success. Bush had a weak R margin much of his term (ending with a totally lost margin) and was a poor communicator of the fiscal or social philosophies of his party either to his party or to the opposition. Massive increases in tax revenue because of tax cuts were never credited to Bush as they should have been. Obama (the harbinger of tax increases - who is losing tax revenue to the government at a rapid rate) on the other hand is -- when talking to his base -- a superb communicator --- but only to his base. The uncertainty in the markets seems to reflect lack of trust from the fiscally conservative public who are not comforted by Obama's message and euphoria from those who who see him as "the answer". I think the euphoria is wearing off a little and the recent runup in the markets is on a fragile ledge. I am thinking cash or treasuries is the place to be for a month or more. These charts are a great help.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I judge when to buy and sell on CNBC by the percentage of white teeth shown per minute of stock discussion. The more smiles (more teeth) the more excited - the more bullish is CNBC and the more cautious our even bearish you should be. Peak teeth is an obvious bear signal. Least teeth cycle -- become bullish.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I like your charts and analysis. I've been tracking several as indicators overall. EWZ for instance tells me a bit about how Vanguard's emerging market fund might perform - so I chew on that information as I look for an entry point on the Vanguard. Obviously there is a big demand destruction all around. How can China perk up if Chucky is home watching his Plasma Tv that was made in China four months ago? I think your charts are helpful as I try to judge when all the air is out. Sure looks close but my guess is it might have another 10 - 15% to go. Is there a fund or ETF with "Obama" winners - like infrastructure and education?.