Jeff Roundy

Are Homebuilders a Buy?

The housing stocks are not reacting to fundamentals but to the injection of a bailout mentality by the Feds. The Democrats won't allow the market bubble, in terms of still very high average home prices, to burst. If investors thought that the Feds. were through propping up the housing industry, the housing sector would takea nose dive!

There Is Plenty to Fear in This Market

Bill: For the first time that I can ever observe in the market, there seems to be an attitude that whatever may be coming in terms of a recession, the Feds. will be there to bail us out.

The market runs on greed and fear. Up until the Federal Reserve opened access to borrowing by non-regulated banks from the Federal Reserve, something not allowed since the depression, the market was in the fear mode. Now everything has changed. The market has taken on the "what's me worry" mind set, which will last, hopefully only so long and fear and prudence will start to take hold eventually.

Solar Power Will Be Transformational in the Next Decade

Jack: I appreciate your prospectus of the growth of the industry, and I agree to the potential growth. However, by almost any reasonable criteria, solar is nowhere near parity to the average utility grid. Some claim we are near parity but in order to make that comparison they claim the additional costs to the environment from co2 emissions. This can not be quanitified by science. However your beliefs about global warming, there is zero evidence of damage to the environment from emissions produced by the different types of utility grids, and in any case a company doing the comparison in order to decide whether they go solar instead of the standard grid, would certainly not be considering co2 emissions. Also, keep in mind that if you make a parity comparison of solar vs. a coal generation power grid(which is the most common and efficient power grid) the cost of solar is over ten times greater according to the DOE.
Having said all that, I am also an investor in solar stocks, and believe strongly in the advancement of renewable energy sources. Let's just keep our facts accurate and not be advancing solar efficiencies way past what they realistically are at the present.
By the way, if we were even close to being at parity to the most expensive power grid, let alone the least expensive, all analysts would not include the disclaimer, that all growth in the solar industry is based on current government subsidies. If subsidies were to be reduced either in Europe and/or U.S. solar stocks would be toast! I mention this, only so that your readers, and perhaps yourself will have a little more reasonable investor perspective on the upside and potential downside to investing in the solar industry. As is the case with most investment trends, especially in technology, people can get ahead of themselves and when the market conditions change, you can really get hurt.