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Mountain Fist
30 Comments
Our Coming Depression
Our Coming Depression
For us to move forward, the accceptance of our mistakes is necessary, and perhaps the most important factor. Our administration has been lying to us, saying the economy is not that bad, and we are not in a recession. How does it help to sugarcoat that fact, and lessen the acceptance of this current economic situation?
Chris B, I have been wrong in the past and attacked you unfairly in some instances. It is clear to me that we may be more in agreement on some things than I'd previously assumed though not in agreement on many. I absolutely agree with you that some of the best investments anyone can make in our current situation, are in educations on things that will be useful to a rebuilding country and their fellow citizens.
Right now my top investments are in books, educational courses, and a couple of businesses that should be greatly helpful to my fellow Americans who are hurting financially. I also believe strongly in the need to get passports for my family, hold some assets denominated in precious metals, and also to get emergency related supplies for the protection and support of my family.
We save and invest much now (though not in the US stock market), are producing things of value to the average American, and consume/spend very little. This should be the mantra for every American.
Oh, and one more thing, vote out EVERY Democrat or Republican who voted for the bailout bill. Hell, vote out any of them not endorsed by Ron Paul. Write in a candidate, like Ron Paul, who has an honest voting record that doesn't flip-flop on every issue. At least we know how he will handle the situation, and if he was wrong we can't be dis-illusioned by having voted for him, because he's been voting his beliefs for 30 years without fail, and will continue to do so in any governmental function!
Voting for Obama, a Constitutional law professor before being a politician, who being one of the more educated people about the Constitution in this country, gave a great and impassioned speech about how the Patriot Act would rape our Constitution, then proceeded to vote in favor of that very same act, will not help this country one iota. And this is not even including the facts as to where his campaign monies originate.
Voting for McCain, who shows so little a grasp of economics, that he can't even answer valid economic questions intelligently, is equally ludicrous. Not only that, but history has shown us that putting men in positions of power who have been tortured, is a VERY bad idea.
I don't know it all, but I learn every day.
Surviving the Financial Nuclear Winter
To Gabe Borenstein: Flight to quality? You are referring to the US dollar as quality, or are you being sarcastic? I don't think anyone would call the US dollar quality right now. The only thing the Fed knows how to do is print money and devalue the dollar. The crisis is being addressed effectively? What planet are you on? We pass this $850 billion bailout bill which has no more effect at loosening credit than the trillion already thrown at it, the Fed sees this and starts the printing press further devaluing the dollar, and you want us out of foreign markets and into this market and US dollars? I guess you are entitled to your opinion, but I think you have it about as perfectly opposite of the reality as you possibly could.
To Nikola: I'm with you on the everything is so cheap talk. I think with the economic problems we are facing, the crap on balance sheets that is being valued as something, the government trying to prop up housing that needs to be devalued to more true reflections of value, we may be only approaching fair value on the market as a whole. However, when markets/economies are bad and the outlook is gloomy stocks and markets tend to trade below fair value quite a bit. In my opinion, the market will be trading well below fair value minus 10% before there is any meaningful uptrend. If the government and Fed continue as they have recently, we have a LOT more than two years before people will have forgotten this. Right now it looks alot more like mid-1929, like Smarty_pants above said.
There is much pain ahead for a very large percentage of the US population. Due to unforeseen things that happened to my family with really bad timing (around 911 and right after the tech crash), I could be in that group. No we didnt lose a penny in tech stocks or buy unaffordable, overvalued housing with loose credit. We did have a tragedy that cost us our home, my business and all our assets.
It's the people like us, that recently had misfortune, and have spent the last 4-5 years trying to work our way out of that misfortune that are in pretty dire staits now. Buying into this market, when our government and the Fed are making the same kind of mistakes that made the depression a Great Depression I don't believe is a great idea. I'm in agreement that the companies (THAT SURVIVE) may not break even on their current share price for a VERY long time.
Until our leaders and yes, the people too, accept the causes of this chaos, and we become a nation of savers and producers again, I really don't see things improving meaningfully.
Why Is Everybody Selling as Buffett Is Loading Up?
What a lot of people are not getting (fortunately more and more are everyday as evidenced by public reaction to the bailout) is that what we have going on here is something that our elected officials and the fed have created over a very long period of time. It will take a long time to correct as well. This chaos that just really started to gain traction in the last month is just getting started. The bailout and massive printing of money by the Fed is only going to prolong the pain and drag this thing out.
This time Warren's a little early. He may have the money to weather it, but I'd rather buy at 50% less than he bought.
36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull
Not catching this falling knife, I am out and in cash. There will be other ways to make money, but it won't be by going long stocks denominated in US dollars. I'll look to buy in the next 5 years or so, but we've got a LOT more downside to go.
Three Stocks We're Long With High Conviction
Yes, indeed I have considered going to cash. It would have been a much better choice for me had I done it a month ago. There are deep value plays that just keep getting cheaper, but to take advantage of them or to go to cash now requires me to lock in pretty big losses on what I already own.
When the markets are brutal and being manipulated to the extent they are now, it's a hard choice. A combination of in depth fundamental analysis, with reference to technicals served me well for many years. New money is going to dividend payers that are heavily undervalued, but as to the money already in play that is sitting down massively on the last couple of weeks activity...hmmm?
Contemplating rolling all my stock positions into a business idea. Businesses that stand to profit from economic and market chaos may be the best of all possible places for my money to be now. Many of these types of businesses may not be publicly traded. Any change in my strategy of buying and holding (for 1-10 years) great companies that are heavily undervalued requires me to lock in large losses.
The business plan I am drawing up is a winner in normal economic conditions due to fundamental macro changes that are inevitable over the next 25 years or so, and are accelerating. The real plus is that if they succeed in really screwing up the US economy any further, my business at the least should be just as profitable, but most likely even more profitable. Why? Because I'll be able to obtain my inventory at even better prices, while the product in the form that I'm selling it will benefit people hurting financially.
oldtrdr you may have helped me answer my own question. I just find it hard to lock in the last couple of weeks losses, when one of the things that has made me successful is having the balls to not micro manage and lock in losses when things look bleak. I guess we'll all be watching to see what happens Monday.
I'll be working very hard at this new business, while keeping an eye on the markets and my bleeding portfolio for now.
Thinking About the Next Six Months
Steve Jobs' Fake Heart Attack, Courtesy of CNN
Three Stocks We're Long With High Conviction
Three Stocks We're Long With High Conviction
Look at a historical stock market chart that goes back before the Great Depression. It goes in one direction. UP! If we have the worst chaos since the Depression, I am & will still be, buying stock in the companies that have the ability to survive and thrive through this.
The best deals are to be had when everyone else is selling. I am a long term investor, not a trader.
Bought PCU today though it may still have a little downside. Am looking at SSL and FCX, and any other high growth potential companies that pay and are raising dividends, are heavily undervalued, generate copious free cash. I have a chance to buy companies on my list at firesale prices. Sure I could have sold everything I owned a month or two ago, and locked in smaller losses. If the fundamental reasons for which I bought these companies are intact, I would be a fool to lock in losses when this too shall pass. If it is the end of the world, as some of you think, then it doesn't really matter does it?
I agree about the rudeness, though. I'm not trying to be rude, I just call it as I see it. It annoys me when someone takes the time to write an informative article like this one and I have to read these goofy comments from people like jerlad & irrational markets who have nothing to do but talk crap about the author's chosen positions. Nobody is forcing you to buy what he is buying, he's not pumping crap penny stocks here. I gave you many fundamental reasons why FFH has great potential and is undervalued.
To moral hazards amok, I would love to see a snapshot of your portfolio and or trades for the year. I would be willing to bet the only way you are up this year is if you are a trader. For those of us who have very little money or time to invest, trading is not an option. If I had a lot more money and was able to sit watching screens all day I'd certainly be trading this volatile market and I'd be willing to bet my portfolio would be up as well. However the amount of money I have to invest is in small bits at a time, and I work a brutal time-consuming job. I have to do what works best for me. Investing with a 5-10 year horizon on heavily undervalued (quality) stocks at times of maximum pessimism is that strategy (with many hours of late night research).
And I may look like a genius in 5-10 years. You don't have a lot of admiration for one of the greatest investors of this century? Appreciate your honesty on that. Not to be rude, but I don't need your approval to follow a strategy that meets my needs. Thanks again for this article!
Three Stocks We're Long With High Conviction
Three Stocks We're Long With High Conviction
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