Mountain Fist

Three Stocks We're Long With High Conviction

How did I set these qualifications? Geez! LOL Who am I? My point was that somebody losing 10-15% this year is probably beating 99.5% of investors today. Considering that my picks in the past have put me consistently in that top 1/2% (within up and down markets during two bubbles and subsequent crashes), and I'm losing my arse right now, I'm trying to give credit where it's due. And by the way, all that time I was in 100% long positions!

Yes, indeed I have considered going to cash. It would have been a much better choice for me had I done it a month ago. There are deep value plays that just keep getting cheaper, but to take advantage of them or to go to cash now requires me to lock in pretty big losses on what I already own.

When the markets are brutal and being manipulated to the extent they are now, it's a hard choice. A combination of in depth fundamental analysis, with reference to technicals served me well for many years. New money is going to dividend payers that are heavily undervalued, but as to the money already in play that is sitting down massively on the last couple of weeks activity...hmmm?

Contemplating rolling all my stock positions into a business idea. Businesses that stand to profit from economic and market chaos may be the best of all possible places for my money to be now. Many of these types of businesses may not be publicly traded. Any change in my strategy of buying and holding (for 1-10 years) great companies that are heavily undervalued requires me to lock in large losses.

The business plan I am drawing up is a winner in normal economic conditions due to fundamental macro changes that are inevitable over the next 25 years or so, and are accelerating. The real plus is that if they succeed in really screwing up the US economy any further, my business at the least should be just as profitable, but most likely even more profitable. Why? Because I'll be able to obtain my inventory at even better prices, while the product in the form that I'm selling it will benefit people hurting financially.

oldtrdr you may have helped me answer my own question. I just find it hard to lock in the last couple of weeks losses, when one of the things that has made me successful is having the balls to not micro manage and lock in losses when things look bleak. I guess we'll all be watching to see what happens Monday.

I'll be working very hard at this new business, while keeping an eye on the markets and my bleeding portfolio for now.

Three Stocks We're Long With High Conviction

One more thing to moral hazards amok. I may have the skill to trade this volatility, if I had the time and money. You may have it. Most individual investors, however, do not. Most people who have the emotional makeup can, however, do the research and find undervalued companies. They can do well on them with a long term horizon, while they would probably lose their a*ses trying to trade this volatility. What's wrong with Tilson throwing out an idea or two for us to look at?

Three Stocks We're Long With High Conviction

I MUST buy because I'm an investor. 3% in the bank? Are you nuts? You must measure inflation by the same BS measures the Fed and US government use. If I 'm making 3% in the bank I'm losing money with inflation in this country/declining value of the dollar. I'm supposed to put money in the bank on a short term pop in the dollar while the treasury destroys it's value. Do you really think the dollar will continue to rise for 5 years...10 years? The US dollar is garbage backed by nothing.

Look at a historical stock market chart that goes back before the Great Depression. It goes in one direction. UP! If we have the worst chaos since the Depression, I am & will still be, buying stock in the companies that have the ability to survive and thrive through this.
The best deals are to be had when everyone else is selling. I am a long term investor, not a trader.

Bought PCU today though it may still have a little downside. Am looking at SSL and FCX, and any other high growth potential companies that pay and are raising dividends, are heavily undervalued, generate copious free cash. I have a chance to buy companies on my list at firesale prices. Sure I could have sold everything I owned a month or two ago, and locked in smaller losses. If the fundamental reasons for which I bought these companies are intact, I would be a fool to lock in losses when this too shall pass. If it is the end of the world, as some of you think, then it doesn't really matter does it?

I agree about the rudeness, though. I'm not trying to be rude, I just call it as I see it. It annoys me when someone takes the time to write an informative article like this one and I have to read these goofy comments from people like jerlad & irrational markets who have nothing to do but talk crap about the author's chosen positions. Nobody is forcing you to buy what he is buying, he's not pumping crap penny stocks here. I gave you many fundamental reasons why FFH has great potential and is undervalued.

To moral hazards amok, I would love to see a snapshot of your portfolio and or trades for the year. I would be willing to bet the only way you are up this year is if you are a trader. For those of us who have very little money or time to invest, trading is not an option. If I had a lot more money and was able to sit watching screens all day I'd certainly be trading this volatile market and I'd be willing to bet my portfolio would be up as well. However the amount of money I have to invest is in small bits at a time, and I work a brutal time-consuming job. I have to do what works best for me. Investing with a 5-10 year horizon on heavily undervalued (quality) stocks at times of maximum pessimism is that strategy (with many hours of late night research).

And I may look like a genius in 5-10 years. You don't have a lot of admiration for one of the greatest investors of this century? Appreciate your honesty on that. Not to be rude, but I don't need your approval to follow a strategy that meets my needs. Thanks again for this article!

Three Stocks We're Long With High Conviction

I took a look at these. Can't say I agree on DLIA. I wouldn't touch it. I do have a lot of faith in Buffett and Berkshire, though it's out of my price range. However FFH is pretty impressive. PEG is 0.42, P/S is 0.78, EV/EBITDA is phenomenally low at 0.599, margins are excellent, ROE is excellent at 37.57%, per year revenue is nearly 2 Billion above market cap (revenue per share at 440.46 and EPS 78.43), debt/equity is 0.351, is generating nearly 10% free cash flow, trades at only 1.34 times book value, and as a small bonus has a little 1.5% dividend! What's not to like? This stock is significantly undervalued by many measures. Thanks for the article!

Three Stocks We're Long With High Conviction

Irrational markets, how is your portfolio this year? Unless you've lost less than 15% on your investments this year you have absolutely nothing to say about someone who has lost only 15% in a brutal year! Preservation of capital is king right now. Personally I can't say I've lost only 15% this year (more like minus 35%). Over half of that has occurred in the last two weeks. And out of 25 years, the last 10 years I've been better than 90% of professional money managers, even through dot.com and housing crashes. I am personally impressed with anyone who has only lost 15% this year. I am a small time private value investor with long term horizons. Disclosure- most recent buys are AOB and KHD (today). Yes, I'm still buying, and yes I'm very open-minded and at least considering ideas from those who are outperforming me. You might try the same.