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mickelsson

mickelsson
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  • Prospect Capital: What Comes Next? Part 7 [View article]
    @emersonbiggins
    I suppose if I were selling at a loss, as you say you've been doing, I might be in a sour mood, too. But I hope I would have the manners not to direct it at someone who has been as helpful as BDC Buzz. He shares his considerable expertise FOR FREE, for pete's sake, and many of us have profited from it.
    Dec 12, 2014. 08:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Bull Market? The Dow Jones Industrial Average Is Flat Since 2007... [View article]
    Sorry to be a Negative Nancy, but your calculations are off. You state that from 2007 to 2014 "the market capitalization of the Dow 30 has declined slightly when adjusted for inflation." But, the increase in the DJIA you cite ("14,165 in 2007 to its most recent level of 17,391") is a gain of 22.77%. Over that same period, cumulative inflation has been 14.18% (using CPI data through September, 2014). Not a bullish gain, but also not the inflation-adjusted decline you claim.

    Second, your premise is a perfect example of cherry-picking dates. Pick a starting date of a few weeks later than the peak in September, 2007 and you could say that by 2014 the Dow had increased 36.68%. Pick a start date in late 2008 or early 2009 and--Voila!--a raging bull market up through September 2014.

    So I'm not sure of your point in this article. If the advice is to not go from 0% to 100% in large caps at a market peak, then my response is "No kidding."
    Nov 4, 2014. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Double Your Capital In A Year: These 10 ETFs Let You Do It, Repeatedly [View article]
    Thanks again, Peter, for sharing the fruit of your labor. You are one of a handful of authors on SA whose postings I read immediately.

    To the skeptics who commented above, I can only say that one of the best-performing parts of my portfolio is the URTY trades I've made based on Peter's information. I've done 3 round-trips in 2014 that averaged a ~22% gain, and did a +6.4% two-day turnaround last week. I'm a little cautious about the broad market indices right now (hence the 2-day trade), but if URTY drops into the bargain range again, I'll start accumulating (with both eyes wide open).
    Oct 7, 2014. 01:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity CEFs: Take A Chance On GGZ, Mario Gabelli Did [View instapost]
    I always value your articles and recommendations, Doug, but I have a question about this one. With all of that cash sitting in T-bills might not GGZ get whacked if there's another "taper tantrum" which some, such as UBS's Larry Hatheway, are predicting?
    Sep 17, 2014. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF Will Continue To Outperform In 2015 [View article]
    VYM is certainly a good, low expense fund, but I'm not sure about some of your logic. You say, "It is essentially a fact that the Fed will raise rates in 2015, it is just a question of how early in the year, and by how much. The top three sectors that compose VYM are Technology, Consumer Goods, and Financials, respectively. These are all areas that tend to do well when rates rise, because a rising rate environment generally correlates with an improving, and healthy, economy."
    Usually a "rising rate environment" is a RESULT of a growing economy. You seem to be claiming that the Fed raising rates will CAUSE these areas to grow.

    I think you're right about the coming rate increase, but its more a technical response to a prolonged period of stimulative money policies than evidence of an improving economy. When we start to see wages increasing, then I'll believe we're out of the economic woods.
    Sep 15, 2014. 01:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital Nails The Quarter - Cautious On 18% [View article]
    Jeez, @JHHAlpha, can you lighten up on the ad hominem attacks? Since your bio says you were a scientist, perhaps you could stick to evidence and skip innuendo about the author's motivation and phrases like "pea brain."
    Aug 14, 2014. 12:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I've Sold Royal Dutch Shell PLC [View article]
    This analysis is mostly based on stock price. The fundamentals are considered only briefly, and then only cyclically adjusted earnings. RDS is a big, complex company in a changing industry. I understand why the author sold his shares, but as the comments by @chicagotim1 and @trailerparkjoe point out, there is not enough attention paid here to the company's prospects, which is the analysis most readers would benefit from.
    Aug 10, 2014. 10:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Case: Improving Or Deteriorating? [View article]
    A quick question, Chris. This article focuses on broad indexes (the NYSE composite rather than the S&P) and recommends broad investments (NYSEARCA:VTI) rather than (NYSEARCA:SPY). Does your research indicate that the occasional lack of correlation between narrower indexes is essentially just noise? Or for an index-based portfolio is it worth tracking separate indexes?
    Thanks again for the judicious approach of your articles.
    Jul 31, 2014. 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Will Guide Us If We Are Willing To Listen [View article]
    Chris, I've come to really appreciate your evidence-based articles on the market. What especially impresses me is that you avoid over-simplification by recognizing that each market indicator is just an indicator, not a fire-bell. You've helped me to add a better awareness of market movement to my stock-picker approach.

    I recommend your weekly YouTube videos (such as the one linked in this article) to anyone who wants to effectively chart the S&P.
    Jul 28, 2014. 07:04 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook By Market-Making Pros, Aggregating 2500+ Stocks And ETFs [View article]
    Another enlightening article, Peter. If there's ever a MVP ballot at Seeking Alpha, you have my vote.
    Jul 26, 2014. 04:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook By Market-Making Pros, Aggregating 2500+ Stocks And ETFs [View article]
    An excellent summary, JALG.
    You've been following Peter's recommendations since 1987? I wish I'd had the good sense to do that.
    Jul 26, 2014. 04:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Canadian REITs That Look Promising, And 3 To Avoid [View article]
    Thanks for the update, Mark, and the link works fine. Some of the blues are confusingly similar, but the numbers clarify which blue is which. And good call on which CDN REITs seemed poised for more price appreciation.

    @dhunter3759: If you're out there, I'm still interested in hearing the reasons for your optimism about DRETF (or D.UN on the chart).
    Jul 26, 2014. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 15 Clean Energy YieldCos, Created Unequal [View article]
    re: TERP
    from the Seeking Alpha feed this afternoon: "TerraForm's (Pending:TERP) IPO price is at the high end of an elevated $23-$25 range, and spells a $2.37B valuation. Shares begin trading tomorrow."
    Evidence of the growing market recognition of yieldco's, or just another overheated IPO? I guess we'll see.
    Thanks, as always, for your coverage of this sector, Tom. You're a voice in the frackin' wilderness.
    Jul 17, 2014. 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Newcastle Investment: Is Reward Enough To Justify Weak Financials? [View article]
    @Michael Bryant: "So far, only initial news about the possible spin-off has been announced and it is expected to be completed between the third and fourth quarter of 2014."
    Too late? No, since there has been no official announcement of the details.

    Disclosure: Long NCT and NEWM (spun-off from NCT in 2/2014).
    Jul 14, 2014. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Beaten-Down Dividend Stocks For 2014 [View article]
    I said I'd be back in July 2014, so . . . On July 1, 2014 the yield on the US Treasury 10-year note closed at [drum roll, please] 2.57%. That's 400 basis points BELOW where it was when @bg6638-2 made the "well past 15% before mid-2014" prediction. What a shock.
    Jul 5, 2014. 02:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
229 Comments
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