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mickelsson

mickelsson
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  • Why Everyone Is Wrong About Whole Foods Market (Again) [View article]
    Thanks, @Gary J, but according to the author everyone was and is wrong (except for him, of course). The long-term chart doesn't show that.
    Mar 20, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Everyone Is Wrong About Whole Foods Market (Again) [View article]
    I don't care about WFM one way or the other (although I wish John Mackey would think more and speak less). But I worry about the reliability of any author who basically says "everyone else is wrong, I'm right." All those foolish (in the author's opinion) buyers of WFM must have bought from someone who was selling--how can everyone be wrong?
    Mar 17, 2015. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Most Dividend Growth Investors Will Need Bonds, Too [View article]
    Another great article, Dale. Readers can always rely on you for valuable reminders about the importance of a balanced portfolio, and for good humor. Every investor should have the phrase "just because yields are low, we do not abandon investment basics or truths" needleworked into a sampler to hang above the desk.
    Mar 17, 2015. 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • mREITs: This Is Not The Time To Get Long [View article]
    @The_Babe: I hope you are not really seeking investment advice in this way. As a number of the comments above indicate, the author has not given a full account of what mREITs do. For example, see rob1492's comments on hedging.

    In addition, the author states all kinds of poorly supported assumptions. As one example, he states in the article "I don't think we'll see extreme inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy any time soon, but there are things going on that tell me it is on its way." As support for "things going on" he mentions Wal-Mart raising its basic wage, and in the comments says about low inflation rates "Nothing lasts forever." Inflation in 2014 was half of what it was in 2011 (1.6% vs. 3.2%), and the January 2015 inflation rate was -0.1, the first negative monthly figure since 2009.

    One final point, the author says that he doesn't consider the adjustable rate portion of STWD's holdings. That makes his analysis easier, but also helps assure that the data will support his conclusion. So PLEASE, for your own sake, before you make a decision about selling STWD read the federal filings available their web site. I know those can be difficult to understand, but if so, talk with someone who can explain the company and what it does.
    Mar 16, 2015. 08:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Him To The GREK [View article]
    Thanks, Mr. Kaminis, for your very good explanation of a trade a little further up the risk scale.

    I saw this situation more as a short-term opportunity so I skipped GREK and went long NBG at $1.00. Several of the comments above express anxiety about high beta (the name of the web site is, after all, Seeking Alpha). But volatility is exactly what created trading opportunity on NBG. I sold 2/3 of my shares on the bounce to $1.68, so now I'm playing with house money on the remaining 1/3. Not a risk I'd take with the kids' college fund, but the kind of quick opportunity just too good to pass up, if one keeps a close eye on it.

    Buying GREK and holding it until it reaches ~$17 (to equal the profit on the NBG trade) would have required more nerve, despite it being an ETF. I thought the longer time frame would allow too many variables, especially the kind that emanate from Minister Varoufakis.

    I wish you the very best in your investing.
    Feb 16, 2015. 08:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Him To The GREK [View article]
    @keith68: I'm guessing you already know this, but price-to-earnings is a ratio, not a dollar amount.

    It also helps analysis to state whether the P/E is based on the trailing 12 months (TTM) or projected earnings ("forward P/E").
    Feb 16, 2015. 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Prospect Capital Buy Back Its Own Shares? [View article]
    @mjk0259: I'm interested in which BDCs have gone into bankruptcy since 2008. There's an article on SA <http://bit.ly/13RoH7Q; that says "no BDC went bankrupt" as a result of the Great Recession, which surely qualifies as a "sudden economic change."
    Dec 30, 2014. 09:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Interest Rates Are Coming: My Top REIT Picks For 2015 [View article]
    @buster0391: I see by your past comments that you have been preaching from the same text on SA since June of 2013. Assuming you follow your own advice and are "at least 50%" in cash, that means you have earned maybe 1% on that cash over the past year (actually a loss of ~1% after inflation), as compared to a total return gain on the MSCI REIT index of 31.5% (see Dale Roberts' comment below). That means you've sacrificed about 30% for an insurance policy for one year. If you are convinced that this "will end very badly" (for which you provide no real evidence) there are a lot less expensive means of hedging against catastrophe than sitting on your wallet.
    Dec 26, 2014. 04:17 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: What Comes Next? Part 7 [View article]
    @emersonbiggins
    I suppose if I were selling at a loss, as you say you've been doing, I might be in a sour mood, too. But I hope I would have the manners not to direct it at someone who has been as helpful as BDC Buzz. He shares his considerable expertise FOR FREE, for pete's sake, and many of us have profited from it.
    Dec 12, 2014. 08:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Bull Market? The Dow Jones Industrial Average Is Flat Since 2007... [View article]
    Sorry to be a Negative Nancy, but your calculations are off. You state that from 2007 to 2014 "the market capitalization of the Dow 30 has declined slightly when adjusted for inflation." But, the increase in the DJIA you cite ("14,165 in 2007 to its most recent level of 17,391") is a gain of 22.77%. Over that same period, cumulative inflation has been 14.18% (using CPI data through September, 2014). Not a bullish gain, but also not the inflation-adjusted decline you claim.

    Second, your premise is a perfect example of cherry-picking dates. Pick a starting date of a few weeks later than the peak in September, 2007 and you could say that by 2014 the Dow had increased 36.68%. Pick a start date in late 2008 or early 2009 and--Voila!--a raging bull market up through September 2014.

    So I'm not sure of your point in this article. If the advice is to not go from 0% to 100% in large caps at a market peak, then my response is "No kidding."
    Nov 4, 2014. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Double Your Capital In A Year: These 10 ETFs Let You Do It, Repeatedly [View article]
    Thanks again, Peter, for sharing the fruit of your labor. You are one of a handful of authors on SA whose postings I read immediately.

    To the skeptics who commented above, I can only say that one of the best-performing parts of my portfolio is the URTY trades I've made based on Peter's information. I've done 3 round-trips in 2014 that averaged a ~22% gain, and did a +6.4% two-day turnaround last week. I'm a little cautious about the broad market indices right now (hence the 2-day trade), but if URTY drops into the bargain range again, I'll start accumulating (with both eyes wide open).
    Oct 7, 2014. 01:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity CEFs: Take A Chance On GGZ, Mario Gabelli Did [View instapost]
    I always value your articles and recommendations, Doug, but I have a question about this one. With all of that cash sitting in T-bills might not GGZ get whacked if there's another "taper tantrum" which some, such as UBS's Larry Hatheway, are predicting?
    Sep 17, 2014. 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF Will Continue To Outperform In 2015 [View article]
    VYM is certainly a good, low expense fund, but I'm not sure about some of your logic. You say, "It is essentially a fact that the Fed will raise rates in 2015, it is just a question of how early in the year, and by how much. The top three sectors that compose VYM are Technology, Consumer Goods, and Financials, respectively. These are all areas that tend to do well when rates rise, because a rising rate environment generally correlates with an improving, and healthy, economy."
    Usually a "rising rate environment" is a RESULT of a growing economy. You seem to be claiming that the Fed raising rates will CAUSE these areas to grow.

    I think you're right about the coming rate increase, but its more a technical response to a prolonged period of stimulative money policies than evidence of an improving economy. When we start to see wages increasing, then I'll believe we're out of the economic woods.
    Sep 15, 2014. 01:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital Nails The Quarter - Cautious On 18% [View article]
    Jeez, @JHHAlpha, can you lighten up on the ad hominem attacks? Since your bio says you were a scientist, perhaps you could stick to evidence and skip innuendo about the author's motivation and phrases like "pea brain."
    Aug 14, 2014. 12:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I've Sold Royal Dutch Shell PLC [View article]
    This analysis is mostly based on stock price. The fundamentals are considered only briefly, and then only cyclically adjusted earnings. RDS is a big, complex company in a changing industry. I understand why the author sold his shares, but as the comments by @chicagotim1 and @trailerparkjoe point out, there is not enough attention paid here to the company's prospects, which is the analysis most readers would benefit from.
    Aug 10, 2014. 10:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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