stonedinvestor

Could the Dow Sink Another 50% by 2012?

No doubt with near total economic collapse comes the worlds biggest wall of worry for stocks to climb. It is not until we truly feel " wow, it did work, all this stimulus has staved off a depression!" that stocks will go down again. Until then earnings will be viewed one of two ways; oh my god they have swung from a total profit to a total loss! Or, well that wasn't as bad as some said it will be. For this earnings cycle, I am fully in the Not That Bad Camp. What will get interesting is the number of companies that refuse to give guidance- will this lead to less speculation and a leveling out of returns? Or greater suspicion by the public- and a generation that moves on without the stock market? The bigger questions for 2012 is just who will be investing? Will this become an ever smaller club? Or can buy and hold work again? For every person who confidently comes on tv and says the obvious- buy and hold has not worked for the last ten years, there is an investor at home faced with a singled digit stock that used to be worth much more. If you gobbled up Ford at $1-$2 and you held to 2012 I wonder how you would come down on that argument? Perahps up 30- Times! It would seem now more than ever buy and hold SHOULD work, but no one is saying that- not a one, that's why I'm starting to think that way.~stoney

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

David I'm not sure what the point is of telling us what happened yesterday and then calling Weds Outlook a bear reversal but good luck with that. Your point on TLT is that due to the promise of US buying bonds have reversed up when they should be going down?- that's how I'm taking the Chinese comment- you should flush these charts out a bit with better commentary. On the book you read by Walter McDougall’s “In the Throes of Democracy” I was wondering if there was any mention of Ivar Kreuger?- if so I would pick it up.
Thanks~ stoney