mlambert890

The Age of Turbulence: Preparing for the Crash

Its kind of funny just how irrationally paniced the right wing is over Obama. The ALL CAPS PIECE really tells the tale.


On Jul 27 09:35 AM jimmy Turano wrote:

> Your analogy in general makes sense to a degree, but I believe your
> 1017.64 SP500 is a little to
> optimistic. Your oil price of high 80's is way off,
> since there will be less demand because of people losing their jobs
> and less use of car travel. The trust of the Market by many after
> lsoing their 401ks, or majority of savings, leaves only the fund
> managers, and wealthy to participate in the market. And with all
> the uncertainty, this is not a game to play with so many unknown
> factors at this time. Rather,
> a test of new lows for the Dow, and S & P would be more appropriate,
> before a new foundation of optimism is formed across the Nation.
>
> WITH A BURN RATE OF DEBT THIS COUNTRY IS ACCUMULATING, AND PROPOSED
> NEW STIMULUS PACKAGES, AND NATIONAL HEALTH CARE IN THE WINGS, YOUR
> PREPARATION FOR A CRASH WILL BECOME FRUITION FOR SURE. THE INEVITABLE
> FIRST SIGNS WILL BE MASSAIVE DEMONSTARTIONS ACROSS THE COUNTRY,<br/>FOL...
> BY THE BEGINNINGS OF VIOLENCE, AND LOOTING, AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST,
> THE ORGANIZED MARCHES TO THE WHITE HOUSE WILL BE THE BIGGEST RED
> FLAG OF ALL. OBAMA'S PLATFORM WAS CHANGE. BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TURBULENT
> CHANGE TO A DEGREE NOT SEEN IN HISTORY AS OF YET. BUT IT IS COMING!

The Mac vs. PC Debate Was Never Clearer

Also want to comment on life cycle...

I'm sorry to say, but this is more Apple brainwashing. I mean if you enjoy your choice of Apple as a product, good for you! But please, lets stay rooted in reality.

There is nothing in any Mac that is "years ahead". Ever. POSSIBLY that case could have been made in the early 90s. Those days are LONG over for Apple.

Apple uses:

Intel processors
Nvidia or ATI video cards
Standard RAM matched to the Intel processors
A standard EFI BIOS
Basically standard Intel chipsets

This is the reason you can run Windows Vista on your Mac. You can also run OSX x86 on a PC.

Does this not seem curious AT ALL to Mac fans? How can you still accept this "but there's magic sauce!!!" Argument when you can run WINDOWS *on* your Mac? Is it that the average Mac fan understands so little about computers that they dont understand the implications of that?

Any PC you buy today (Windows based, Linux based, or Apple manufactured) will last you YEARS if you want it to.

I have PC's sitting here that were bought at the exact same time as my Mac G5 and they are every bit as useful.

People upgrade PCs because the PCs are cheaper and they CAN upgrade them. People *choose* to hold onto the Mac *because* it is so expensive to upgrade. There is NO "TCO" argument to be had here.

And I have never had any issue with a virus, or spyware, or a trojan or any malware at all going right back to the rise of the internet. And I have never spent a *dime* on security software - free versions have always been available.

On the other hand, I *have* had Mac users who have brought their system to me because it was "acting funny" and they had a rootkit on it.

So all of this BS about there being such huge differentiators is FUD. These systems are far more similar than different and any leanings are personal preference. Mac fans just argue more vocally because for them it is a social statement to buy a Mac. For the PC user its a tool.

The Mac vs. PC Debate Was Never Clearer

Here is the problem with the article (I see lots of Apple fans here too modding reasonable comments down, so I dont expect a reasonable debate)

The analogy with cars is ridiculous. Most analogies tend to be ridiculous but this one particularly so.

Only in the minds of the Mac fanatics/faithful is the Mac a "Porsche" or "Mercedes Benz" in comparison to HP, Dell, Alienware, Sony or what have you. It's a laughable comparison. The difference between a Porsche and a Camry is staggering. The difference between a bloated overly expensive Mac Pro desktop and a high end PC is generally case design and the use of the Xeon processor and a slower video card.

Even in this comment stream, Mac fans are screaming that you can't get a "faster PC for cheaper". You can't have it both ways. Either Macs are an amazing high end bargain, or the are the Mercedes Benz/Porsche.

And that brings me to the real point of why people who know nothing about technology or the tech industry (most journalists) but are just enamored with their Mac (most journalists) shouldnt write tech articles....

The fact is that Apple makes both Camrys and Porsches (is this author completely unaware of the Mac mini or the low end Macbook?) and the PC industry ALSO makes both Camrys and Porsches.

The icing on the cake is of course that everyone slices "statistics" to represent what they want. So now Apple has "91% of the high end market". They also have "100% of the iPod market" and "100% of the iPhone market". They have "100% of the market for brushed aluminum computers that sell for a base price of $2499.99 and have a Xeon processor"

Also in, Apple has "100% of the market for computers with a fruit based logo"

The fact that articles need to be written endlessly to rationalize and justify Apples market position speaks volumes both about the protestors and about Apples position.

If the hypothesis that Apple is an elite and incredible high end luxury brand along the lines of Bentley or Rolls Royce is to be accepted, then the Mac Mini should have been a STAGGERING success rather than a pretty dismal failure. Same for the Macbook basic.

The Great Oil Deception: Part Two

It is in a "bleed out condition" because the current state of human discourse is agenda driven extremists screaming to each other on the internet and supporting each other with annecdotal "evidence"

So easy to manipulate this environment with simple inflammatory posts.

The reality is that science simply does not support the notion that we have suddenly fast forwarded 1 century and oil is now nearly run out.

The problem is that:

1) doomsayers, the scourge of all humanity really, WANT this to be true and so scream about it 24x7

2) greens/alternative energy idealists/et al (note, I said idealists and not realists - alternative energy is great as long as you're not delusional in your expectations) WANT this to be true and so also scream about it 24x7

3) greed powered speculators having destroyed the credit markets with their artificial inflation of real estate value are now moving to commodities - with all of the bullshit on this forum, no one mentions that SPECULATORS consume MORE OIL than CHINA daily - eat that for breakfast. These speculators WANT badly for the "doom" to be "true" so they can keep making money on futures.

4) politicians fall solidly into the pockets of either 2 or 3, so they will make sure that people keep thinking the DOOM is true

This is the reality of our current situation. Historian WILL look back on this in 200 years (contrary to what the idiots who fall into camp 1 believe) and say "wow, what a back of selfish, reactionary, idiots there were polluting the chance for real progress back then"

I think what will ultimately get us out of this is some common sense and the average person deciding to finally just start ignoring every idiot that has a loud voice and a soap box.

Alternative energy should be encouraged (tax incentive) and utilized where possible, but wind and solar are no panacea and never will be - anyone who understand the science will know this.

Exotic alternative energy is something we have to hope we discover in the next century before oil REALLY starts to run out. We ease the slope by using alternatives where we can (and relatively clean nuclear and relatively clean coal MUST be part of this - the greens MUST be ignored here) in the meantime

Oil must be treated with the respect it deserves as the ABSOLUTE foundation commodity for human civilization and speculation must be DISALLOWED. No swaps bullshit exception for JUST OIL the ONE commodity that SHOULDNT have a swaps clause!

All of this noise and the 800lb elephant in the room gets ignored conveniently in favor of more black helicopter and armegedon bullshit. But of course it IS seeking alpha I suppose - maybe lots of oil futures folks here playing a part and stirring the pot!

The Bear Market Has Just Begun

Good article... Im by no means a pesimist at all, and am a vocal critic of the doomsayers, but I can see a bearish market lingering longer than 2009. It can be argued that the bear period hasnt really started yet.

I think, rational or not, a lot will depend on public mood following the election.

There is also a need for real regulatory action on the commodities side (ie - limit or eliminate swaps) Not sure how likely that is to happen though

Housing Market Shows No Signs of Life

Real estate will always come back. Its prepostrous to think otherwise. Do you think populations are declining? Do you expect mass suicides? Do you think people somehow no longer want homes?

Expect the prices to continue to contract until US home median settles down to 1999 levels plus some realistic growth adjustment 99-2008. Then expect, most likely, a return to realistic growth moving forward.

"Housing is dead" in the short term certainly (3-5 years), but clearly "housing" is never "dead" unless civilization is over. Despite the hype of those with an agenda, there will always be people who dont want to be piled like rats into a megalopolis. Once prices return to rationality, you will start seeing the inventories return to healthy levels.

Did We Learn Anything Over the Past Two Years?

Two posters here made great comments explaining why this is a non-story. I suggest everyone READ them before going off on a tangent or tirade.

The Triple Play: Oil Addicts, The Credit Crunch and Deflation

Tiger, you've got it right, but 3 is a huge factor, not a small one. The simple fact is that US oil demand has been *down*. Goldman predicts ever increasing price per barrel, oil sets daily records, yet demand is not really there and supply *is* keeping up.

Its funny how everyone, once again, wants to turn a blind eye to an obvious case of collusion and price fixing. Subprime happened, we let it happen - let the sharks bleed the system and yelled "MARXIST!!!" at anyone who suggested intense regulatory reform was needed.

Now everyone is running in a panic predicting the end of days and meanwhile, oil SOARS irrationally. And what happens? Some suggest that MAYBE the cartel of 9 figure investors manipulating oil futures should be reigned in and BAM... "MARXIST!!!"

We reap what we sow all right. The vast majority of us idiots keep supporting the protection of 8 and 9 figure net worth individuals buying into the bullshit that it will trickle down and believing the delusion that "some day, we'll get there too! thats what the USA is all about!"

Its high time that the vast majority of us (any loser like me working for a living - even in a deep six figure job - and posting on a board like this) dropped the delusions of grandeur and realized that the deliberate manipulation of the global credit market, and now commodities markets, by billionaires and institutions isnt something the free market can continue to allow if it plans to survive.

We're heading for a model where the top 1% hold 100% of the wealth and the rest of us are foraging for food or, perhaps, we return to feudalism.

The answer is increased regulation and more tools in the hands of the fed. And possibly some criminal prosecutions and 8 and 9 figure fines against individuals for the credit meltdown.

Carl Icahn May Rekindle Yahoo-Microsoft Deal

Well... One thing obvious is that Goldman obviously wants this deal even though no one else seems to. No matter WHAT the news has been, a Goldman analyst has found a way to spin that into proof that a "deal is inevitable"

I, for one, am really hoping they are wrong. Yahoo is a dog and would mire MSFT down with integration challenges that would go on for years and cost a ton. In the meantime, the combined entity would still have no chance of catching Google. As a MSFT shareholder, this deal stinks.

Is an iPhone Air Hybrid in the Works?

Its funny... Considering that the Sony Vaio TZ line already has options for both CDMA and GPRS radios built-in, and is smaller and lighter than the "Air", I fail to see how this "convergence" device would be even remotely interesting.

Apple has a good racket. Release existing tech with an Apple logo and be hailed as making a market. Because so many people buy into it, its a self fulfilling prophecy. There are a number of subnotebooks with cellular radios built in already and all of them are more interesting than the Air, but web pundits seem not to care.

Housing Starts Rebound?

Well everyone here is really saying the same thing so no need to nitpick. The reality is that the downturn hasnt nearly stopped yet, but at some point it obviously will. Real estate is still a finite commodity and still a tangible asset that people will always want. We allowed a speculative bubble to feed itself like a cancer and grow out of control. Artificial wealth creating more artificial wealth as bad mortgage paper was bundled into bad CDO instruments.

I think anyone who has any level of real economic understanding recognizes that we are going to be deflating for a good long while in housing. I expect new home starts to trend down for at least a few more years and the median US home price to continue to drop until we have given up roughly 35% of the record highs of the past couple of years.

Dollar Falls on Lowest Consumer Sentiment in 28 Years

Wow... thats a lot of oversimplification in one small paragraph. Bear profited from the shell game of increasingly synthetic derivatives and was way over leveredged.

Their largest CDS partner was JPMC. Banks were starting to shut Bear out and their ability to meet their obligations was coming into serious question.

If nothing had been done at all, Bear *would* have slipped into bankruptcy and defaulted on ALL of its obligations including trillions in CDS exposure.

The real problem is that most people ranting and raving about these issues, and weighing in as "experts" and even some of those making policy, have NO CLUE what any of it means much less how one would beging to unravel this ball of string.

Synthetic instruments have become increasingly abstracted from anything approaching real value and the govt has allowed that to happen. Now there isnt enough physical capital in circulation to cover the leverage exposure. Simply allowing everything to organically meltdown so you can say there is "NO CORPORATE WELFARE" would lead to an outcome I dont think many people would like even if they are too stupid to realize it.

Rather than talking in broad conspiracies and making loose historical connections that are, when examined in detail, really vaporous, more people should take the time to try to really learn what is going on here and what lead to it.

NAR Home Sales Report Shows Some Nasty Declines

I think we wont be done until US median is 35% off from its last peak. I also think that some markets will implode severely and others will simply give up much of their normal growth over the next few years (NY comes to mind, propped up by foreign money)

My thinking is it will take 3-5 years to find the real bottom of this and then things will settle back into the *normal* pattern of growth. Possibly even slower than normal for another 5 or so depending on the health of the broader economy. Hopefully we'll never return to the unsustainable and ludicrious bubble growth.

John Hussman: Home Price Erosion Will Continue

Completely agree with this article. My thinking is that the US median home value needs to she about 35% of its high last year. Some markets will take a lot of pain, others will take less, to reach this number, but reach it we will.

I think it is a good thing and it would be disastrous to try to prevent it. Not to mention, it wont work. Home values were artificially inflated, institutional investors were ridiculously overleveredged with synthetic instruments, and the average schmuck was carrying a criminally irresponsible debt load and covering it with artificial "equity".

This deflation is needed. So is MUCH tighter regulation on the banks and investment banks (and any other institution that wants to start to act like a bank). Some forward thinking regulation might be nice also to catch the wave of CDO pirates who are now retreating into commodities and helping to create a bubble there rather than seeking to invest in the creation of real value.

Homebuilder ETF Rises Despite More Bad Housing News

Great point karchad... OR, as Im noticing increasingly, a "doom predicter"

A lot of folks these days, I think, are just trolling financial forums to hear themselves rant and have it validated by other commenters. Its like a support group and these guys are like the guy on the corner with the "WORLD IS ENDING" cardboard sign.

Its simple really. Either the world is ending or it isnt. If you are like me and karchad, start consdering buying sectors that are right now highly depressed for the long haul.

If you believe the world IS over, stop blogging and ranting about it, turn off the computer, start taking physical delivery of commodities, and go dig a bunker.

There really isnt any other option here. Things are either going to recover AT SOME POINT, or they're not. Endlessly predicting the Great Depression 2.0 only now 5x worse is pretty much a waste of time.