twotraps

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Wow. Really interesting comment about 'debt dollars' and 'actual dollars' in circulation. Never thought of it but I guess we keep writing checks against a bank account, and debit cards continue...but if there's a panic for actual cash, what happens? Can't decide if raising cash is the answer or if it will matter or not. My guess is that I would prefer cash...it might become 'king' if people finally start bailing out of the things they don't necessarily need or cannot carry any longer like a new Chevy Tahoe or a house under water. What better way to get things moving again than have people selling whatever they can to whom ever has cash to buy it! Houses start to move, the used car mkt is hot...cash starts cirulating again. I'd take a new Tahoe at 1/2 price.

A Year After Lehman: We Remain at Risk

sebiamo, well done. The entire govt. is run by those interests, flat out. The banking problems were spectacular for sure.....but much more sinister problems exist with the health care and drug giants. That might even be bigger than any Goldman Sachs adventure! At least the banks provide some services that we pay for as individuals....we can shop for them and competition forces some band of expected results. Health care? Its genius. Total genius. They sell services to the govt. ( that has lax supervision standards) and legislate in an auto pay from our salary for services we are 'assigned' with absolutely no provision for results oriented decision making!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We pay, we go where we are told, get the services they decide on and when, and get reimbursed what and when we are told. Oh, and its not negotiable. This kind of thievery makes the banks look like childs play. Now, try and get a politician to speak out against a health care company.

A Year After Lehman: We Remain at Risk

Agree that it was not the cause. It was 'the tragedy of the commons'...everyone pitched in a little bit, nothing was really illegal, and years of legal nitpicking to ease rules/restrictions/acc... and investing finally came home. I applaud quick govt action to stop panic, but worry they have only perpetuated the situation where banks get easy treatment. What has really changed? Lehman was the lamb, some entity had to be sacrificed. How they came to the decision we'll never know. So, we avoided panic and have enjoyed a period of calm. Is there any payback or will sit idly while lawyers convince congress that a commercial real estate loss is not really a loss afterall.

Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and Bank of America: Stock Prices Can Double

Again we seem to get distracted with the latest ratios when there is no real look at how to price the banks! I understand the danger in making assumptions or even using the slightest discretionary term in describing a major banks financial situation.........One of the many miracles in the crisis was the banks collective ability to continually lobby for favorable treatment.....for the good of the country and limiting panic of course. So, it shows some bias if I were to call for a return to 'normal banking conditions' because we could argue for days on what 'normal' means. Could we just admit that its pretty tough to get a clear picture on where the banks stand??

Financials: Missing the Rally and Warning for the Future

It sure sounds like a bitter investor just pissed about the mkt rallying................. who here will argue that the banks have had the sweetest deal ever, all in the name of the common good. Where is the pay-back? Easier accounting standards for commercial real estate? The govt is way over their heads insuring everything under the sun, and staying lenient on the financial sector. So, I hate the articles and comments about the end being near....I don't even follow fundamentals for the most part..but it is hard to ignore when the govt shelled out so much cash.

Why the Stock Market Should Crash

After the next major move....this discussion will be resolved. Should the mkt fall as the author suggests, and we review this article later, will we really look back and say his reasons were false or made up or just scare tactics that had nothing to do with the subsequent mkt failure? Prices have been rising, the trend has been up. There are also unprecedented fundamental shifts going on that may produce unforseen problems. The govt flooded the mkt with money to keep it upright. Price action has been more stable since then, allowing for necessary adjustments in both housing business. The 'immediate relief' has been good, but consequences can be expensive and we have yet to fully appreciate what exactly that will mean.

Zero Interest Rates Can't Last Forever. Then Where Are We Headed?

Agree with much of the article comments here. It will be interesting to see the mkt reaction to slightly, just slightly less demand at the auctions. Rates can move higher without the fed's blessing, perhaps without the violence that we saw a year ago.....but the game will be on. Is it just me or is the govt. insuring more than it can possibly ever handle? When that backstop is seen as worthless, it will speed the next move, fueling higher rates.

Sell-Off in U.S. Treasury-Land

Gott agree with cyclingscholar, it does not make sense to me but the bond return as been awesome so far this year. Will there be a lot of 'trapped money' in long end govt paper if prices come off here? I could really use a good talking to here because surely I am missing something!! Can the govt just keep issuing a shmillion zillion dollars in debt and expect to keep going to the well?

Economic Roller Coaster May Have Reached Bottom

Interesting article. Regardless of your bias or feelings about economic indicators, the mkt has trended higher. That either helped or hurt you, period. You don't have to like it or understand it, the mkt will move and that movement will affect your balance. Now, the disclaimer aside...I wonder what has really happened over the last year to make such upheaval this easily digested by the mkt! It seems to me that the govt balance sheet expanded quickly to prevent the banks from tipping over.....and it worked. So do we just move on? All is forgiven? What about lenient accounting standards to account for toxic debt on the banks books? What about the govt itself, loaning out money at a time when expenses have begun an uptrend due to increased population of retirees and increased health care costs? As an independent trader, you have to work within your means or the game is over...............that's the 50 ft high electric fence....thats the deterrent. There does not seem to be 'out of bounds' for the major players, other than the token failure by Lehman. Maybe it just does not matter, it could be that there really is a totally unlimited appetite for us govt paper to allow the charade to continue indefinitely, I honestly don't know. The recent rally has definitely been a nice distraction from the imbalances that still remain.

Dutch Fund Manager: The 'Great Recovery' Is Over - Time to Sell Stocks

I agree with your positions now, mostly cash, light equities. No real solid basis for that other than the core of the system (banks/govt) are both seriously upside down. I keep thinking that having cash will payout several times over in some way...either with a clear trend in some asset class or some severe discount to where the mkt is now. The strange thing is that bonds are doing great!!?, lending to the govt has been the best game in town and there seems to be no end to the charade.


On Oct 20 07:30 PM tripleblack wrote:

> Qatar's Sovereign Wealth just cashed in 50% of their warrants on
> Barclay's. I found this significant, but maybe I'm just skittish.
> I'm sitting on loads of cash and commodities, with just a few equities
> (themselves indirect commodity plays).

Dutch Fund Manager: The 'Great Recovery' Is Over - Time to Sell Stocks

What strategies do you take to capture the turn here? Long bearish ETF's seems quick, liquidating stocks? Will it matter that you miss the top? Do people have the stomach to sit through another move down.....especially a really sinister move that gently trends lower for several months? Doubt it.

U.S. Treasuries, Commodities and the Hunt Brothers

What some scenarios from here, some sell-off in treasuries to get the ball rolling? What can the fed really do once the mkt rates start to push higher? What warning could we get that money would begin to flow out of bonds and back to cash or another vehicle? Could this potential turn in bonds be the beginning of a long trend up in rates, putting some eye-watering stress on the debt burden? What can actually happen here?

Inflation and the Hierarchy of Needs

Interesting article. Does this mean that bond yields can move higher on their own? The fed assures everyone they will keep the policy rate low to help the economy but in reality the cost of money will start rising whenever it wants....that could get interesting in a hurry.

Bullishness at Contrarian Extreme

There is no real basis for this theory, but I don't think we should rule out some jarring, outisde event to cool off this rally. Since tech indicators are pointing up....pull-backs have been reasonable and orderly...earnigns seem to be fine and without sufficient rejection of any new high in the stock market, prices continue higher.

So, an outside event to somehow start an apparently innocent chain of events to cool it off and begin a more substantial correction than we've seen since March of this year. Some event to shed more light on the fact that the underlying economic situation remains very fragile. Not sure what this 'event' will look like, but won't it be funny to hear the tv business news change their tune to '.....we've told you all along that the fundamentals have been weak, and that stimulus is good but it also risks revealing whole charade of debt in this country.......'

Ten Reasons for an Imminent Stock Market Crash

Great article and comments. Whatever your political party or point of view...the govt. is broke, no matter how you cut it. There might be some comparison with England after WW II...with the Marshal Plan, didn't England use the money largely for accounting purposes to prop up banks while others like Germany built infrastructure...I might have my history wrong but what the hell our we doing now? The govt is broke, big time, with unfunded liabilities straining while the demands keep growing!! The bailout was largely a banking/accounting play, with the banks hoarding cash to protect their crap overall positions...but the underlying economic situation still suffers. I have not been a big believer in this move and have suffered on the way up, but prices have earned some pull-back here. How deep that is will tell the tale, how much can we break and not disturb the move up since March? I think sustained activity under 1000 in the S&P will weigh heavily on this thing, with nothing really stopping us from making the same long 6 month rotation back down into 750 or through 667.