Adam's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/1858/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/49090-bigband-network-no-big-deal?source=feed#comment-98121 98121
In terms of the IPO, investors invested in both the market and the company, BBND. The market opportunity should be the primary focus of the investor followed by BBND's ability to successfully grown their share of that market. As such, investing because of a single quarter that BBND stated was "outstanding" is based on incomplete analysis and seems unwise. Of course, the current stock price is representative of the management teams ability to compete in their market, and the market measures this performance in a very dispassionate way.

Adam
]]> Tue, 09 Oct 2007 13:45:33 -0400
In terms of the IPO, investors invested in both the market and the company, BBND. The market opportunity should be the primary focus of the investor followed by BBND's ability to successfully grown their share of that market. As such, investing because of a single quarter that BBND stated was "outstanding" is based on incomplete analysis and seems unwise. Of course, the current stock price is representative of the management teams ability to compete in their market, and the market measures this performance in a very dispassionate way.

Adam
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48678-3com-corporation-forget-cisco-think-open-source?source=feed#comment-97418 97418
While I agree that the way to challenge the established incumbents is using Open Source (I am the founder of an Open Source Software Company) I question how this can work for 3Com. The business model for Open Source depends upon ongoing service/support fees. While 3Com can probably make some margin by bundling Open Source Software with hardware, these margins will be very small. 3Com delivers their product to market via distributor and resellers. The resellers are the recipients of the support fee's not 3Com. In fact, in the Open Source example you propose, 3Com is only providing a convenience by pre-loading Open Source onto a hardware platform, something that one of their partners can also do.

In fact, last reported quarter 3Com's service business was $9M on revenue of $319M

Open Source, Im not sure how 3Com can get there from here?

Adam]]> Tue, 02 Oct 2007 10:34:51 -0400
While I agree that the way to challenge the established incumbents is using Open Source (I am the founder of an Open Source Software Company) I question how this can work for 3Com. The business model for Open Source depends upon ongoing service/support fees. While 3Com can probably make some margin by bundling Open Source Software with hardware, these margins will be very small. 3Com delivers their product to market via distributor and resellers. The resellers are the recipients of the support fee's not 3Com. In fact, in the Open Source example you propose, 3Com is only providing a convenience by pre-loading Open Source onto a hardware platform, something that one of their partners can also do.

In fact, last reported quarter 3Com's service business was $9M on revenue of $319M

Open Source, Im not sure how 3Com can get there from here?

Adam]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48222-facebook-should-take-the-money-this-time?source=feed#comment-96843 96843
Take the money.

Adam]]> Tue, 25 Sep 2007 14:16:19 -0400
Take the money.

Adam]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/34797-at-t-lightspeed-the-price-of-mediocrity-just-went-up?source=feed#comment-85703 85703
Perhaps selling AT&T Broadband to Comcast was a mistake! HFC and FTTH are the only viable solutions.]]> Tue, 08 May 2007 09:46:25 -0400
Perhaps selling AT&T Broadband to Comcast was a mistake! HFC and FTTH are the only viable solutions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/28769-is-investing-in-research-in-motion-a-bet-against-the-internet?source=feed#comment-82103 82103
Adam]]> Tue, 06 Mar 2007 09:30:55 -0500
Adam]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/19976-memo-to-cablecos-fixed-line-is-dead?source=feed#comment-73549 73549 Mon, 06 Nov 2006 22:23:40 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/19991-cable-s-analog-ghetto-why-broadlogic-s-solution-is-unlikely-to-work?source=feed#comment-73545 73545
Good points and agree but feel the need to "pile on". The digital part of "going digital" can be achieved with an ATSC tuner, something that Im sure those with HD tuner enabled TV's have seen, represented as the channels with dotted subchannels (5.2 for example). But the real issue is the price? Approx 60% of cable subscribers are analog without a Set Top Box. No operator is going to spend $240 per subscriber to solve this problem. Comcast has been vocal for years that the solution is a $75 STB. Take a look at the STB's from Pace Microelectronics, these guys are on the right track with low cost digital STB's getting close to the Comcast price. So unless we are missing something, why anyone would fund the type of development? Im willing to bet that Broadlogic far overshoot their projected price. Why the WSJ would consider this news worthy, heaven only knows.

Adam]]> Mon, 06 Nov 2006 22:11:07 -0500
Good points and agree but feel the need to "pile on". The digital part of "going digital" can be achieved with an ATSC tuner, something that Im sure those with HD tuner enabled TV's have seen, represented as the channels with dotted subchannels (5.2 for example). But the real issue is the price? Approx 60% of cable subscribers are analog without a Set Top Box. No operator is going to spend $240 per subscriber to solve this problem. Comcast has been vocal for years that the solution is a $75 STB. Take a look at the STB's from Pace Microelectronics, these guys are on the right track with low cost digital STB's getting close to the Comcast price. So unless we are missing something, why anyone would fund the type of development? Im willing to bet that Broadlogic far overshoot their projected price. Why the WSJ would consider this news worthy, heaven only knows.

Adam]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/16818-fiber-to-the-home-a-world-of-headaches-for-comcast?source=feed#comment-63611 63611
Equating the speed that you experience from a Cable Modem service in a metro peek hour is the same as saying a Ferrari is slow because its on the FDR at 5pm.

What cable companies have been very unsuccessful in doing is explaining to investors how their technology works and its strengths and weaknesses. In fact, the Cable business is an extremely insulated group thats further complicated by their regional structure of limited competition.

While you should do what your analsys leads you to, I wouldnt go as far as being short and wouldnt buy stock in the equipment vendors that supposedly are going to benefit from your predicted build.

Frankly, I dont think you could be more incorrect. Ultimately all capacity gets consumed (processors, harddisks and networks) but there is much more avaiable capacity than you are aware of, combined with subscriber usage behaviours that would shock anyone. The only people who have to build FTTH are the DSL guys, they dont have a choice and the numbers are not going to work.

Good luck with your pick, your going to need it

Adam]]> Wed, 13 Sep 2006 16:35:37 -0400
Equating the speed that you experience from a Cable Modem service in a metro peek hour is the same as saying a Ferrari is slow because its on the FDR at 5pm.

What cable companies have been very unsuccessful in doing is explaining to investors how their technology works and its strengths and weaknesses. In fact, the Cable business is an extremely insulated group thats further complicated by their regional structure of limited competition.

While you should do what your analsys leads you to, I wouldnt go as far as being short and wouldnt buy stock in the equipment vendors that supposedly are going to benefit from your predicted build.

Frankly, I dont think you could be more incorrect. Ultimately all capacity gets consumed (processors, harddisks and networks) but there is much more avaiable capacity than you are aware of, combined with subscriber usage behaviours that would shock anyone. The only people who have to build FTTH are the DSL guys, they dont have a choice and the numbers are not going to work.

Good luck with your pick, your going to need it

Adam]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/15684-cablecos-wake-up-to-reality?source=feed#comment-60018 60018
In general your assertions are correct however I dont agree with your conclusions. Theoritically it is possible to delivery GB of data capacity over the coax system providing sufficent capacity for many years to come. There is no specific limit (high or low) to the number of modems that can be on a channel or the number of channels that can be used to deliver DOCSIS services. The issue that you did correctly identify is that the spectrum that would be used for this additional capacity is currently consumed by video services. It is correct that analog "must carry" consumes signficant spectrum however the spectrum "crunch" was really caused by Digital Simulcast. This is the re-transmission of the analog channels as digital on the same system and was implemented to compete with Satellites picture quality. These digital channels are the candidates for switched broadcast and as they are already use settop boxes, no premise equipment changes are necessary. Freed channels can be used for data services. This can all be done with today's network.

A big rebuild is a long way off for the cable operators, they will continue to improve their existing spectrum usage allowing them to offer competitive services for quite some time.

Adam]]> Tue, 22 Aug 2006 14:03:21 -0400
In general your assertions are correct however I dont agree with your conclusions. Theoritically it is possible to delivery GB of data capacity over the coax system providing sufficent capacity for many years to come. There is no specific limit (high or low) to the number of modems that can be on a channel or the number of channels that can be used to deliver DOCSIS services. The issue that you did correctly identify is that the spectrum that would be used for this additional capacity is currently consumed by video services. It is correct that analog "must carry" consumes signficant spectrum however the spectrum "crunch" was really caused by Digital Simulcast. This is the re-transmission of the analog channels as digital on the same system and was implemented to compete with Satellites picture quality. These digital channels are the candidates for switched broadcast and as they are already use settop boxes, no premise equipment changes are necessary. Freed channels can be used for data services. This can all be done with today's network.

A big rebuild is a long way off for the cable operators, they will continue to improve their existing spectrum usage allowing them to offer competitive services for quite some time.

Adam]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/13779-is-csg-systems-hiding-something-before-earnings-come-out-next-week-csgs?source=feed#comment-53696 53696
Adam]]> Tue, 18 Jul 2006 12:29:23 -0400
Adam]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/13436-prediction-on-alcatel-under-10-within-3-months-ala?source=feed#comment-52858 52858
Frankly, I still wonder why Alcatel did this!

Adam]]> Thu, 13 Jul 2006 13:04:24 -0400
Frankly, I still wonder why Alcatel did this!

Adam]]>