Adam

Memo To Cablecos: Fixed Line Is Dead

I cant help explain the sentiments of the street however I can explain voice in Cable. Offering phone service has been effective in competing with the DSL/Voice & Satellite combination. Although alone it doenst represent significant revenue, it has protected the more valuable services. Operators I know have seen their overall subscriber penetration grow by simply adding voice. It also prepared cable operators to compete with VZ and ATT. Lets see how they go with Mobile from the Sprint. Competition between Cable and Telco is precariously balanced, very modest success by Cable operators could tip the scale.

Fiber to the Home: A World of Headaches for Comcast

Micheal, you are another one of these people that lacks the basic knowledge of how cable systems work, why your getting the speed you are getting from you cable modem and how a cablesystem is mostly already a fiber system.

Equating the speed that you experience from a Cable Modem service in a metro peek hour is the same as saying a Ferrari is slow because its on the FDR at 5pm.

What cable companies have been very unsuccessful in doing is explaining to investors how their technology works and its strengths and weaknesses. In fact, the Cable business is an extremely insulated group thats further complicated by their regional structure of limited competition.

While you should do what your analsys leads you to, I wouldnt go as far as being short and wouldnt buy stock in the equipment vendors that supposedly are going to benefit from your predicted build.

Frankly, I dont think you could be more incorrect. Ultimately all capacity gets consumed (processors, harddisks and networks) but there is much more avaiable capacity than you are aware of, combined with subscriber usage behaviours that would shock anyone. The only people who have to build FTTH are the DSL guys, they dont have a choice and the numbers are not going to work.

Good luck with your pick, your going to need it

Adam

Cablecos Wake Up To Reality

Andrew,

In general your assertions are correct however I dont agree with your conclusions. Theoritically it is possible to delivery GB of data capacity over the coax system providing sufficent capacity for many years to come. There is no specific limit (high or low) to the number of modems that can be on a channel or the number of channels that can be used to deliver DOCSIS services. The issue that you did correctly identify is that the spectrum that would be used for this additional capacity is currently consumed by video services. It is correct that analog "must carry" consumes signficant spectrum however the spectrum "crunch" was really caused by Digital Simulcast. This is the re-transmission of the analog channels as digital on the same system and was implemented to compete with Satellites picture quality. These digital channels are the candidates for switched broadcast and as they are already use settop boxes, no premise equipment changes are necessary. Freed channels can be used for data services. This can all be done with today's network.

A big rebuild is a long way off for the cable operators, they will continue to improve their existing spectrum usage allowing them to offer competitive services for quite some time.

Adam