DaveW's Comments

Will Hutton sums up competing proposals to reform the banking system (spinning off the riskier arms of banks vs. demanding more capital), and concludes: Mervyn King is right – the time has come to break up the megabanks.

Sun, 25 Oct 2009 09:56:16 -0400

The megas no longer are able exist in a managed risk state. The too big to fail became too big for morals, too big to be reasonable, too big to control. Their entire existence has become defined by absolute greed buffered by political corruption. They and their Washington ilk have done more damage to this country than any terrorist group could ever hope to. Even now, after all the damage they have done, they game the system in their trading rooms with taxpayer monies to feed their addiction. No, it's not that we 'should', it is that we MUST level the five megas who carry the most derivative exposure and their upper mgt must see real and hard jail time. If we do not do that now, by God, the American people will do it by either voting out our worthless, self-serving politicians, or by mob force. I pray for the former, but the latter could easily happen if we keep getting raped and ignored.

Reflation Supported by Stocks, Commodities and Oil

Fri, 16 Oct 2009 17:58:53 -0400

Chris,
you took a lot of heat in early-August by calling people into the market at S&P 1000. A good example of trading what you see and not trading what you feel. In hindsight, we now know that this rally 'engine' has been powered not only by MM's like yourself, but backstopped with .gov 'nitro-fuel'. The kick-the-can approach by our leaders has created a dangerous market: dangerous for bears as it could go to 1200-1300 from here, dangerous for bulls as a real crash risk is increasing. But, there I go again, basing my investing on how I feel, not on what the charts are saying. At any rate, hats off to you for taking the heat and standing by your training, experience and conviction - you are wealthier than I since August.
Best of luck,
Dave

Still waiting on confirmation — very close to getting our answer

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 18:35:33 -0400

Thank you Susan, always appreciate your straight forward and sound articles. Long the VXX with stops just above the March trend line. BTW, on any substantial correction it will be interesting to see how strongly the $US rallies. I suppose treasuries will be the safe haven of choice. But, with the global printing presses running 24/7 I wonder if gold wouldn't be the superior safe asset?

BRING THE TROOPS HOME - NOW!!

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 13:17:07 -0400

Having trouble finding the article on the Army Times site, could you please supply the link? Thank you in advance.

Don't Try to Pick a Top in this Market

Sun, 20 Sep 2009 11:26:05 -0400

Oh come on now, what's with the thumbs-down-fest!? There's plenty of room on S.H.'s blog for more than just one of us... LOL

RON PAUL - MY IMPRESSIONS

Sun, 20 Sep 2009 11:09:49 -0400

I hope he comes to Seattle! Only two years ago I would never have considered Ron Paul as a real candidate. Now, he has my vote in 2012. This turnaround came on my own, by simply watching what was going on around me. Funny how perceptions can change. My hope is that exact change has come, or will be coming, to many more.

Don't Try to Pick a Top in this Market

Thu, 17 Sep 2009 14:36:16 -0400

"Don't Try to Pick a Top in this Market"
The market action from mid-July has taught this new trader that very lesson. And if you finally do catch the top, after the seventh try, the stop-losses average out to the price you would have paid by shorting after confirmation anyway! LOL

Seriously, nice post Suzanne and I agree, 76 on the Dollar must hold to keep your 1080-1120 range. Next line of retreat for the $ is 75 and I wouldn't put it past Ben to put it there in the near future to really put some steam behind this blow-off top. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

WISH YOU WERE HERE

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 17:30:30 -0400

Folks, don't get tempted to give in under the enormity of our problems and say 'what can I, one person, do to change anything?' Don't give in. Get involved. All across our great country people are organizing locally to protest government over-spending, government over-involvment and government protectionism of the very people who are at the epi-center of this mess. Local involvement brings one into community with other concerned citizens, it gives hope to 'real change'. Where the voice of one can feel impotent, the voice of many brings great possibilities. Wake up and let's change America!

The Great Unwind

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 12:37:53 -0400

"What is less clear is how hard the feds will try to prevent the inevitable."

In my opinion, it has become quite clear how hard the Fed will work to try to prevent deflation. The answer is: they will do *whatever* it takes, no matter how potentially destructive in the long term it may be. There is nothing they will stop at to prevent short-term pain. Therefore, bears must be extremely careful where they draw their 'lines in the sand' and be willing to retreat quickly and minimize losses. Bulls, as sweet as the previous months have been, must fight the urge to eek out further upside, 'sell at the top' is just about as hard at buying at the bottom. To finer tune the question, at what point will the Fed begin to protect bonds and the $US at the expense of the market? Soon me thinks. But, when this turns and I increase my short exposure, I will be ready for the Fed's next WMD's - they won't stop their assault on deflation until all foreign backers of our debt flee, that's when things get really ugly...

Let's analyze the dollar on a weekly chart...

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 10:49:24 -0400

Hi Suzanne,
Checking in to see what you're thinking and remembered your Sept. 1st call. Well done! $US now heading toward 76.2 support? Gold looking to break definitively above $1000 soon? An interesting drama unfolds.
Looking forward to reading more of your posts in the futes!

Scary but true: it was nothing more than good ol' fashioned trial and error that saved the global economy from meltdown.

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 09:56:36 -0400

So instead of quick pain we now have to deal with slow, protractred pain spread over the span of many, many years. yeah, clap yourselves on the back boyz, ya did a wonderful job...

There Are No Good Choices for the Fed

Sun, 13 Sep 2009 11:13:22 -0400

The market/pundits/bloggers will find one to attribute it too, after the fact... Sentiment cycles play a big role in volatile markets.

On Sep 13 08:44 AM LE wrote:

> What do you think is the primary impetus (or impetuses) for the 2nd
> dip of the double dip that you think we face?

9/11

Fri, 11 Sep 2009 20:17:16 -0400

Thank you for doing this J.Q. I for one, will never forget, to the end of my days on this earth...

Expect a Huge Money Supply Contraction

Fri, 11 Sep 2009 20:10:12 -0400

Speaking of all that Fed monetization, let's check in with the Fed's inspector general to see exactly where that money has gone.....err, on where the investigation into where that $ has gone.....err, what money? can you repeat the question??

You have to see it to believe it:
www.youtube.com/watch?...

A Rude Interruption for Markets

Thu, 10 Sep 2009 12:45:41 -0400

I prefer:

"Tide, it'll take out Kook-Aid stains, while you enjoy a day at the beach!" [an omg do we have kool-aid stains...]

On Sep 10 08:08 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> "while it's OK to swim in the sea of "everything goes up", when the
> tide goes out it's best not to drink the Kool-Aid on the beach."
>
>
> That's a really muddled metaphor. How about:
> "A rising tide of Kool-Aid covers many a sin."

UNG Trading 101

Fri, 04 Sep 2009 18:52:29 -0400

Won't be touching dUNG until it starts putting in higher lows and higher highs. Period.

Marc Faber: Buy a Machine Gun

Fri, 04 Sep 2009 13:22:44 -0400

"Sorry for the pessimism"

Not singling you out or trying to pick on you here. But, this statement highlights one of our cultural problems: an unspoken rule to NOT be pessimistic - even when it is realistic or truthful.

Our leaders and we citizens will HAVE to endure the difficult truths that lie in front of us. We can either talk about it or ignore it, but one way or another the truth has a way of surfacing and we shouldn't feel 'fringish' for having spoken it. /rant

On Sep 04 08:16 AM TripleG wrote:

> Give MF credit for being the one honest guy on CNBC. We are headed
> for inflation and there is no turning this around. (Sorry for the
> pessimism.)

Could Bill Gross Be Wrong in His Apocalyptic View?

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 13:53:22 -0400

NOBODY knows how this is going to play out. There is potential for world governments (esp. U.S.) to pile enormous amounts of further stimulus into the system creating glimmers of growth and tons of speculation (read: enormous rallys). We may see waves of deflationary/de-levera... forces met with waves of inflationary/re-levera... forces, whipsawing markets viciously in a long-term trading range. Odds of a real recovery, based on real growth with a stable reserve currency are not looking too likely for some time. With so much systemic risk and uncertainty, a very patient and thoughtful trading strategy will be required to preserve and grow portfolios.

67 Stocks Returning 50%+ This Past Month

Sun, 30 Aug 2009 09:39:33 -0400

30+ comments and not a word spoken. k, it's not a telepathic box above the 'Publish' button, it's a typing box, you share thoughts by actually typing them, then click publish.

On Aug 30 08:55 AM bloomberg 30 wrote:

> .

Is the Market Correction Finally Here?

Sat, 29 Aug 2009 12:15:54 -0400

"As for the strength of the recovery... It will be strong."

You had better hope not Gtarras. If true, the Fed will have to raise rates and they just cannot do that and expect the economy to recover. In a 'strong recovery', energy prices will increase, also quenching any real earnings progress.

No, Bernake has us on a razor's edge where growth cannot exceed certain limits and more easy money will just inflate another doomed bubble. Like you say, "The market is out there to fool as many people as possible." This included the poor bastard retail who get to claim 'sold to me!', at the top..

With that said, even bulls can expect small corrections in an uptrending market. imho, this is heading to 1100'ish on the S&P in the near future. But don't be the one fooled by Mr. Market on a possible 30% correction in later fall and into 2010.

On Aug 29 11:56 AM Gtarras wrote:

> So I've read this article and gone through the comments. And I saw
> just one poster who tried to sound somewhat bullish. Just one!!

>
> Everybody is expecting a move down. Estimates vary from correction
> to outright depression scenario. Which means its not happening, guys.
> The market is out there to fool as many people as possible. Personally,
> I think the blogosphere's sentiment is not that much different from
> march lows, maybe a bit more positive. Most of you guys out there
> missed the boat, admit it!
>
> As for the strength of the recovery... It will be strong. Many great
> pieces on it out there, I''m too busy/lazy to repeat them. :)

Equities: As Good as it Gets?

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 00:29:40 -0400

Sean,
Well written, balanced presentation of the current situation in the most realistic and matter-of-fact way. Rare these days when opinions are strong on either side. Yes, Bernake et al. walk a razor's edge and it's not 'if', but 'when' the misstep will occur.

Inflation Ahead

Wed, 26 Aug 2009 10:53:43 -0400

Agree, significant inflation is coming....eventually. It may take some time for a true up-trending in PPI and CPI and for real monetary velocity to increase. IMHO, right here, right now, the inflation trade is built more on speculation and less on real facts.

Notes from the Fully-Subsidized Market

Wed, 26 Aug 2009 10:37:04 -0400

Excellent write-up Mark. Recovery = being able to remove the cardiac paddles and have this economy stand on its own. The consumer says that won't happen for quite some time...

ah to heck with it., throwing hands in the air and going long with Ned to Dow 14K!

How to Trade Using Game Theory

Tue, 25 Aug 2009 17:39:43 -0400

All these thumbs down on good comments, Cetin (iamned), the spamming clown, must have been lurking...

Back on point. Excellent write-up and articulated thoughts!

The Federal Reserve Must Die, Part 3

Mon, 24 Aug 2009 16:37:17 -0400

ROFLMFAO! ...and, ditto what socialismSUCKS said.

On Aug 24 02:38 PM James Quinn wrote:

> Is that you Ben Bernanke? Are you trying to throw me off by spelling
> like a 1st grader?

Celebrating the 'Recovery': I'm Disgusted

Mon, 24 Aug 2009 13:10:04 -0400

Pardon typo, should be: S.A.T.T.

On Aug 24 01:02 PM DaveW wrote:

> S.O.T.T,
> Very well expressed, my feelings exactly. However, long a few positions
> here, would make Cramer proud, therefore will shower upon sale thereof...

Celebrating the 'Recovery': I'm Disgusted

Mon, 24 Aug 2009 13:02:55 -0400

S.O.T.T,
Very well expressed, my feelings exactly. However, long a few positions here, would make Cramer proud, therefore will shower upon sale thereof...

Are we nearing the end of this rally?

Mon, 24 Aug 2009 01:17:45 -0400

Nice charting Suzanne. I agree and have been eyeing 1100 ever since 950 was taken out not long ago. Unfortunately, 'not long ago' I had a pretty closed mind to the idea of reaching that lofty level this year. Humbling for this up and coming chartist..

What Will Fuel the Next Market Rally?

Sun, 23 Aug 2009 23:18:31 -0400

Good article Ray. One thing is for sure, any downside surprise will result in brief, high-volume selling (as you alluded to). This will be met with either strong buying in the last 10 minutes and/or large contracts bought in the AH. Until proven otherwise, bad news is ignored or called 'better than expected' and met with only minimal selling. Eventually, these stats WILL matter and will be market movers. Agree, things will get interesting this Fall...

S&P's New High for 2009 - Another Victory for the Bulls

Sun, 23 Aug 2009 10:45:00 -0400

When I think of bulls and their belief that this is true recovery, I'm reminded of that commercial where there are a dozen monkeys around a table in the boardroom, they are depressed seeing the chart pointing down, so one turns the chart 180 degrees, now the chart is pointing up and the monkeys erupt with unabashed jubilation and screeching.