DaveW

Are we nearing the end of this rally?

Nice charting Suzanne. I agree and have been eyeing 1100 ever since 950 was taken out not long ago. Unfortunately, 'not long ago' I had a pretty closed mind to the idea of reaching that lofty level this year. Humbling for this up and coming chartist..

What Will Fuel the Next Market Rally?

Good article Ray. One thing is for sure, any downside surprise will result in brief, high-volume selling (as you alluded to). This will be met with either strong buying in the last 10 minutes and/or large contracts bought in the AH. Until proven otherwise, bad news is ignored or called 'better than expected' and met with only minimal selling. Eventually, these stats WILL matter and will be market movers. Agree, things will get interesting this Fall...

S&P's New High for 2009 - Another Victory for the Bulls

When I think of bulls and their belief that this is true recovery, I'm reminded of that commercial where there are a dozen monkeys around a table in the boardroom, they are depressed seeing the chart pointing down, so one turns the chart 180 degrees, now the chart is pointing up and the monkeys erupt with unabashed jubilation and screeching.

It's All in the Timing

Suzanne,
Enjoyed your mkt timing thoughts and looking fwd to more in the future. In my humble opinion, market timing has usurped asset diversification as the new portfolio mgmt strategy going forward. We could see years of range-bound markets, thus making a timing strategy the only way to build wealth. See you around!
-DW
p.s. took my gains on fxp yesterday a.m., stopped out of qid, still long gdx and nvax, need to step back and re-evaluate further short entries.

Just Another China Bubble

As always, excellent analysis Mark. Currently, holding FXP with a stop at $9.50 - likely to be taken out as Franken-market moves toward 1100 holding it breath all the way. Why short at all? I'm betting even Frankenstein had to come up for breath...

Not Bullish - Yet

Gary,
Agree with you. This bizarro rally has taught this bear to pick his shorts with much care and choose very specific and strategic entries and stops. very familiar with the latter of late...
I expect a small pull-back in the very short term and then an attempt to fill the SPY gap at 1100. But I am not married to this idea as the kool aid brigade could take it there w/o ANY breather: Frankenstein'ish, but possible. Still, I do expect a spectacular failure in late '09 and into 2010 when the third and worse wave of this downturn hits us. In my opinion, the calm now is only the eye of the impetus.

Coming Soon: Banking Crisis of Historic Proportions

John,
Thank you for a well written warning. 99.9% of the world's retail players are not traders, but fearful investors. The bulk of the noise they are exposed is the cnbc spin trying to play on their fear of missing this new 'bull market'. If the general public is caught trusting this spin a second time, it will be many, many years before retail steps foot in again.

As we debate whether all this still would have happened if Lehman Brothers (LEHMQ.PK) had been rescued, Ryan Avent weighs in: probably, and Lehman's failure may have prevented a dollar collapse.

I remember when our leaders said saving Lehman and issuing TARP was crucial in preventing a total financial collapse by FIXING the underlying toxic assets problems. A year later and those banks are just as broken as before, therefore, I actually believe our leaders are right, a financial collapse is coming.

10% Unemployment?

For a very REAL look at unemployment take a look at John Lounsbury's seminal piece here:

seekingalpha.com/artic...

His 'U-7' estimate: unemployment is really at 14.9%

Gold ETFs See Outflows During July

R.K., you trying to triple-leverage your feedback? lol

In May/June, GLD failed two intermediate-term trendlines dating back to Nov.'08, the Jan.'09, but the final call to the exits was the important breaching of $90 price support in July.

Friday Jobs Report Discounted: Why the Rally Will Continue

"The bottom line is we are going to see growth in the third and fourth quarter of this year, and while much of the fiscal stimulus has not kicked in yet, the monetary has kicked in. "

Error! Should read:
"The bottom line is we *will be dished fake numbers suggesting* growth in the third and forth...."

Don't worry, I'm not fighting the trend any longer, but come on, let's call it what it is!

Was August 6 the Stock Market Top for 2009?

I stopped out of the last of my high-end retailer and junk reit shorts yesterday, so yes, absolutely, it would make PERFECT sense that today is the '09 top. My cerebellum is intellectually suggesting 'sell, for there are many fundamental and technical reasons to'. But lo, this rally has been of the brain-stem and mine is braying, 'Buy, BuY, BUY!!'

This rally has made some very smart people quite early on top calling, it will be interesting to see how yours turns out...

Fibonnaci Calls: The 38.2% Retrace Is Approaching

pullback? correction? I vaguely remember those terms... With all the Kool Aid moustaches on CNBC, this has got to reach 50% Fib later this month or so. Watching the $USD.
'OHHHH YEEEAAAAHH!'

New Bullish Signals Emerge

Human nature and psychology desires hope and to end suffering as soon as possible - there is no more powerful herd effect than near a top to a bear market rally. All hope that it's a bull market and fear they are missing it, all want the suffering to be over. But consider, 1.) how low the 2Q earnings bar was set; 2.) how much higher the bar has been set for Q3; 3.) how 'real' unemployment is at least in the mid-teens, and rising (don't forget those whose benefits have expired...); 4.) how consumption has been obliterated and showing no signs of recovery; 5.) how prime loans defaults are increasing; 6.) how unprecedented $Trillions were thrown at this mess; and on, and on and on...
I know, it's like a buzz-kill calling the cops on a great party, no one wants it to end. But, end it will. Fundamentals (the cops) show up and bust this party this Fall...

eBay (EBAY) is evolving and becoming more profitable, and its PayPal and Skype units make the company look even better. Barron's Michael Santoli says investors should bet on eBay's continued growth.

imo, ebay has mechanistic headwinds in that they've pandered to the buyer at a deep cost to the seller. Many of ebay's best, long-time sellers have left in droves, forming new sites. The primary purpose of these sites have been to attract sellers - giving sellers a financial edge will give the buyer the best price. This quiet mutiny could be problematic for ebay going fwd. As for buyers, consumers are paying down debt and cancelling credit cards, there will be fewer buyers than one might think in a recessionary environment. On the other hand, name recognition is still ebay's best card so will be interesting to see how this story ends...