Griz

S&P Says Outlook Assumptions for U.S. Mortgages Still Valid

Sounds like another AAA call to me...

Elizabeth Warren Highlights Washington's Losing Housing Battle

Agreed. Washington is trying to keep the house of cards intact until consumer morale improves, it is a waiting game. Problem is that the passing of time has begun to reinforce thrift instead of consumption; everything I see supports my belief that this paradigm shift is just beginning. Demand decline, the removal of "moral default stigma", rising unemployment, a coming epic reset wave and the impending house supply glut (which has been hidden by banks from the market) all conspire to drive housing prices much much lower in the coming years. Add onto that, the need for boomers to start downsizing/reducing their holdings as well...

It's Time to Call a Housing Bottom

L-O-S-E-R

Housing Crisis Deepens - Prime Borrowers' Roll Is Over

I am beginning to regard home-ownership as just a business transaction. I am a smart businessman. The big company corporate executives have shown me that it is ok to default on debt, i.e. it's just business. I will soon default on my debt, it's just business.

John Paulson: Long Financials

Also, I'm sure he was short elsewhere so all that had to happen was that financials performed better than where he was short (all past tense of course because he's absolutely onto some other pairing).

Just like that, the 0.3% annualized growth seen in May is revised to zero, so when's the recession's end date? Reply is hazy, with all eyes on July.

Sure looks like a temporary plateau before resuming a downward trend...

Housing: How Big Is the Shadow Inventory?

I'm sticking to my price. I've listed at 2007 levels and I will get the price listed for my Mcmansion, dammit. If not, I will wait for the government's plan to buy houses at listed values, in which case I will raise the price on my house 20% and make a handsome profit at the expense of the taxpayers... Only kidding of course, but possibly some of the shitheads are thinking this. If this were to happen then I would initiate campaign mayhem.

Keeping an Eye on the Entire U.S. Housing Picture, Part 1

Case Shiller is the correct way to look at asset values. Problem with housing now is that it's falling nominally too. Nothing like 4x levered losses (or with 125% LTV how about infinite levered losses - sure, just keep paying your mortgage for that kind of return).

With more than 2/3 of S&P 500 companies now in, Q1 earnings are about 10% higher than consensus - the best reading ever. Dr. Ed Yardeni notes that some managements have attributed the beats to aggressive cost-cutting, suggesting that if the economy is bottoming and recovers later this year, the profits rebound could be surprisingly robust.

"Cost cutting", doesn't that mean firing employees?

If everyone is unemployed, then won't there be a 2nd round of demand reduction, leading to more "cost cutting" feeding into yet another round of "cost reductions", leading to yet more...

Jim the Realtor: San Diego New Homes Selling Briskly

Also, don't you just love it when Realtors are actually issuing warnings for us to be skeptical of others in their trade:

(P.S. Thanks for the honesty t-bird)

On May 04 09:04 AM t-bird wrote:

> I am a Realtor and member of NAR...
>
> Following the advice of 95% of the Realtors out there is like taking
> the hook, line and sinker...Do your due diligence and make your own
> decisions on your r.e. investment.
>
> Forewarned is forearmed!

Jim the Realtor: San Diego New Homes Selling Briskly

Quick honey, go get my check book for that new home deposit... Oh wait those aren't buyers, it's just a bunch of realtors with their families mulling around...

Case-Shiller Housing Numbers: The Rate of Decline Is Decreasing

We are merely at the normal "Spring" inflection point. As soon as the Realtor-led selling season hype wears off (probably by June) housing prices will resume their crushing descent downward. I wouldn't even be surprised to se prices re-inflect downward yet again as the Option-Arm and Alt-A products begin to really hurt the upper end. Homebuyers, do yourself a favor an continue to wait. Housing is an incredibly slow-moving asset class, so don't worry that you will miss the bottom (it is still 2 - 3 years off).

California Housing Affordability Reaches Record High

Oh, I can't help myself... GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!

Gotta love those realtors.

The Second Reason Consumers Aren't Spending

I gotta comment on Celtin's rebuttal: "You can't confuse sociology with economics". If not driven by sociology, then what is economics? A natural phenomenon? A by-product of our lunar cycle? No, everything and everywhere economics is a man-made phenomenon . The price of things is in what the collective "market" perceives them to be, not where they naturally occur. Markets rally or fall based on the perceptions, and outlook of people as driven by their greed or fear.

The Second Reason Consumers Aren't Spending

People are creatures of habit. As we get use to spending less and saving more it will inevitably begin to catch on. Maybe we might even get up from our computers once in a while and go outside to get some fresh air...