Griz

One-Third Of 5-Year Homeowners Underwater [Housing Tracker]

Dear Jason C, If prices go back to 2000 levels then I extrapolate from the May release of the Case-Shiller HPI that prices will need to decline by another 45%! I agree with you that this will probably happen but when it does it will eliminate ALL remaining US homeowner equity... period. According to the Fed's Q4 '07 Flow of Funds report: www.federalreserve.gov... the US homeowner had only 47% of their equity left at the end of last year. What will happen when the whole country is in aggregate upside-down on their homes? Jubilee has arrived.

Jeremy Grantham: Global Incompetence Is 'Officially' Scary

HARM IS HILARIOUS

Boomberg: End of CA Housing Decline in Sight?

My neighbor just listed his boat for sale, three homes on the street are in foreclosure, my employer is freezing hiring and is getting ready to do layoffs, I see more and more luxury cars sporting for-sale signs on my way to work, my city is cutting back on services... No, I don't live in Riverside or San Bernadino, I live in South Orange County in a $1M+ neighborhood where many of the homes were financed with alt-a's (a much larger asset class than sub-prime with most of the resets yet to come). The second wave of pain (via the negative feedback loop) is just about to start and it's not going to be pretty.

Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle

Just wait until we have a new president in November... I bet that a whole bunch of this artificial stimulus goes away, we crater into 2009-2010 and they (either Dems or Repub) hope a recovery in time to get re-elected in 2012.

Bill Gross: The Housing/GSE Bill Is Best Way Out of Credit Crisis

I wonder if all of this government attempts at support fade in November after we have a new president in place (either Dem or Repub)? What would the then incumbent party have to gain in fighting the tide and holding up the economy, as opposed to letting it crumble dramatically and then hope for a recovery before 2012... I bet 2009 & 2010 will present a world of hurt.

Economic Report Summary: Plunging Home Prices and Consumer Confidence

ajhough I think you are correct. It appears as if we are just about due for our next US Depression of which this would actually make #4. Please see this great article:

www.kwaves.com/kond_ov...

Click on the 1st graph to get a lot of detail of pricing, inflation, asset prices, etc. over the past 230 years here in the US...

Housing and Long-Term Competitiveness

How can the "investment" of time, labor, materials, etc into the US residential housing asset be anything more than vanity and a horrible waste of resources? When the US housing asset went from $12T upto $22T in the first half of the decade, we should not have banked on that as being a store of value of any kind... and we should not be surprised as it depreciates and is marked to it utility accordingly.

US Housing Inventories Reach Record Highs

I'm looking to move to So Cal and I'm seeing more and more nice single family Houses are coming onto the market. I guess this is the next step for delusional owners who won't "accept" the offers they have been getting to buy their homes; they must be thinking "I'll rent it for a year or two until prices rebound". I can now rent a $1,000,000 home in Orange County for about $3,500/mo... no matter how I slice it, I can't make the math work to buy. Now is a great time to rent a home.

SoCal April Real Estate: Rising Sales, Flat Prices

Is it just me, or can't anyone else see that "spring blip".

How to Default on Your Mortgage and Stay in Your House

Why should citizens (lower or middle class) adhere to "rules of conduct" professed to us by the uppers (banks, gov't., the wealthy, etc. - i.e. The Man) when they themselves do not walk the walk. They get bailed-out, spoon fed, assisted, liquidity enhanced, prevented from systemic failure, you name the reason but in the end they are not allowed to fail. The average American has caught onto the scam and, God Help Us all if the defaulting paradigm catches on in en-mass, we will experience another period of Jubilee and will have to get used to Oil Producing & Low-cost Manufacturing owners of our once great country.

CAR Forecasts 24% Price Drop for California Houses

Wow, I could never have believed a realtor group would actually come out with something that resembles the truth (although still a bit optimistic).

New Home Sales, Inventory Chart: You're Going the Wrong Way!

How about "repent ye speculators" or "mean reversion walks among us" or how about "renters unite"...

Jingle Mail: How Do You Value Home Equity?

The reason that stocks trade for more than their book value, is due to the expectation that they will reflect greater value in the future (i.e. the discounted expected future cash flows from the assets exceed the current net book value). Can that argument be made for housing when you factor in taxes, maintenance, insurance and capital depreciation? I think economic triggers (i.e. Job Loss) will be a strong stimulis for even prime borrowers to walk away if they are underwater. As the realization sets in that we may be a decade+ away from our recent peak in housing prices (real & nominal), more and more people wont be able/willing to "hold on" that long.

Existing Home Sales Charts

The Feb 2.86% increase was just a "Spring Blip" as confirmed by March's -1.99% decline , thus continuing the downtrend. I think volume contraction will continue for quite some time...

The Housing Problem: What Inning is It?

I thought we had to regress back to the mean in terms of real housing prices still. In reviewing the 10-city Case-Schiller composite index, I think we're just at the bottom of the third inning as far as home price correction in concerned (i.e. -14% from peak). That still leaves a long 6 innings (or 30% more) left to go. The first third of this was frightening, just think how bad the next two thirds will be...