Griz

Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall from Today’s Values

In contrast to may readers wishful thinking, the 1987 - 1997 trendline sits exactly on the 100-trend from the long-term (1896 to present) Case & Schiller study. It is the correct proxy for "normal" trended house prices.

Conservative Property Index Predicts We're Less than Halfway Through Fall

But, this time is different (ha, ha, ha, ha)... Stimulus has only temporarily plateaued the fall in prices; we are only halfway through the total descent back to trendline (if we are lucky).

Elizabeth Warren Highlights Washington's Losing Housing Battle

Agreed. Washington is trying to keep the house of cards intact until consumer morale improves, it is a waiting game. Problem is that the passing of time has begun to reinforce thrift instead of consumption; everything I see supports my belief that this paradigm shift is just beginning. Demand decline, the removal of "moral default stigma", rising unemployment, a coming epic reset wave and the impending house supply glut (which has been hidden by banks from the market) all conspire to drive housing prices much much lower in the coming years. Add onto that, the need for boomers to start downsizing/reducing their holdings as well...

Housing: How Big Is the Shadow Inventory?

I'm sticking to my price. I've listed at 2007 levels and I will get the price listed for my Mcmansion, dammit. If not, I will wait for the government's plan to buy houses at listed values, in which case I will raise the price on my house 20% and make a handsome profit at the expense of the taxpayers... Only kidding of course, but possibly some of the shitheads are thinking this. If this were to happen then I would initiate campaign mayhem.

Keeping an Eye on the Entire U.S. Housing Picture, Part 1

Case Shiller is the correct way to look at asset values. Problem with housing now is that it's falling nominally too. Nothing like 4x levered losses (or with 125% LTV how about infinite levered losses - sure, just keep paying your mortgage for that kind of return).

Hedging Your House Redux

I think the S&P Case Schiller Index futures are way too optimistic. I would buy a large position in the DMM as our bloated US housing asset further comes down to reality (far exceeding current futures expectations).