Griz

Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall from Today’s Values

In contrast to may readers wishful thinking, the 1987 - 1997 trendline sits exactly on the 100-trend from the long-term (1896 to present) Case & Schiller study. It is the correct proxy for "normal" trended house prices.

Conservative Property Index Predicts We're Less than Halfway Through Fall

But, this time is different (ha, ha, ha, ha)... Stimulus has only temporarily plateaued the fall in prices; we are only halfway through the total descent back to trendline (if we are lucky).

Little House on PIMCO’s Prairie

The appraiser, lender, mortgage banker, and bond investors are all accomplices... but just that, only accomplices. The homeowner is the ultimate perpitrator driven by greed, out for personal gain; now pretending to be misguided. I say, let them fail.

Are Home Prices Still Too High?

It's simple, which is the better option:
A) A $500K house, $100K down, $400K financed with fixed 30-year @ 4% = $1,900/month payment.
B) Same house purchased for $300K, same $100K down but now only needing a $200K mortgage, let's say financed using a 30-year fixed mortgage at 11% = $1,900/month payment.

Although the resulting monthly payments are identical, the inputs are very different indeed. Your risk is obviously lower putting less principal at stake. The lower rates argument is merely another desperate attempt by those trying to prop up real estate (i.e. keep it still up in bubble territory). People have figured out this realtor payment spin...

Also, a generational demographic shift is about to put added downward pressure on house prices; see the following article for an indepth analysis on the upcoming boomer-shift:
www.informaworld.com/s...

Solve the Housing Crisis by Rewarding the Prudent

All of these "save housing" ideas are attempting to keep housing prices up which is wrong. Housing VALUE never really increased... price increases caused people to beleive there is more value in homes than they were worth. It was all a figment of you homeowner's imagination. The prices TEMPORARILY bloated and now are letting out gas. SSSSSSSSSSS, see that's the sound of your artificial wealth evaporating. As a matter of fact, anyone holing any type of asset is in deep do-do. Stocks, bonds, real estate, even gold; you name it, it all has been artifically inflated by excessive leverage in the system. As we deleverage (as last happened in the 1930's) asset prices, all assets will come down in value thus re-distributing wealth back to the people. So bring it on, keep your job if you can, and most importantly hold onto your cash (yes the dollar will probably survive for now) because the great global asset sale is about to happen and it'll be all at 90% off.

Paulson/Bernanke: $700 Billion at 'Hold to Maturity' Pricing

I can't believe what I am hearing… “Hold to maturity”? It’s almost like these hypocritical socio-capitalists are now turning on the very principle that they promoted so earnestly on the ride up. Do we now all of a sudden no longer have an efficient market? Are the markets only efficient in measuring asset price inflation? Can real estate only go up? Hold to maturity is a f#####g insult to anyone with 2nd-grade education. It is blindingly insulting that Bernanke would propose some new “valuation model” and expect the taxpayer to feel better about it. It is outright lying!!

The Fannie/Freddie Bailout: Consequences to the U.S. Taxpayer

I bet the losses on Fannie's and Freddie's book swell to $1T before its all said and done...

Bust, Bail, Repeat: The U.S. Enters into an Ever-Worsening Cycle

Just wait until we have a new president in November... I bet that a whole bunch of this artificial stimulus goes away, we crater into 2009-2010 and they (either Dems or Repub) hope a recovery in time to get re-elected in 2012.