Griz

Conservative Property Index Predicts We're Less than Halfway Through Fall

But, this time is different (ha, ha, ha, ha)... Stimulus has only temporarily plateaued the fall in prices; we are only halfway through the total descent back to trendline (if we are lucky).

Elizabeth Warren Highlights Washington's Losing Housing Battle

Agreed. Washington is trying to keep the house of cards intact until consumer morale improves, it is a waiting game. Problem is that the passing of time has begun to reinforce thrift instead of consumption; everything I see supports my belief that this paradigm shift is just beginning. Demand decline, the removal of "moral default stigma", rising unemployment, a coming epic reset wave and the impending house supply glut (which has been hidden by banks from the market) all conspire to drive housing prices much much lower in the coming years. Add onto that, the need for boomers to start downsizing/reducing their holdings as well...

Housing Crisis Deepens - Prime Borrowers' Roll Is Over

I am beginning to regard home-ownership as just a business transaction. I am a smart businessman. The big company corporate executives have shown me that it is ok to default on debt, i.e. it's just business. I will soon default on my debt, it's just business.

Housing: How Big Is the Shadow Inventory?

I'm sticking to my price. I've listed at 2007 levels and I will get the price listed for my Mcmansion, dammit. If not, I will wait for the government's plan to buy houses at listed values, in which case I will raise the price on my house 20% and make a handsome profit at the expense of the taxpayers... Only kidding of course, but possibly some of the shitheads are thinking this. If this were to happen then I would initiate campaign mayhem.

California Housing Affordability Reaches Record High

Oh, I can't help myself... GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!

Gotta love those realtors.

Banks Are Unwilling to Solve REO Problems

Instead of seller financing, lower interest rates, builder give-aways, loan modifications, cram-downs, presidential proclamations on refinancing, tax breaks, REO sidelining, PIPPs, TARPs, TALFs or even RALPHs (as in: makes me want to).... how about we solve this crisis the old-fashioned way by allowing home prices to fall to their true equilibrium pricing?

First Time Housing Affordability Surges in California

Most of this "affordability" is being driven by the temporary lower rates in place, but we need to consider, which is the better option?:
A) A $500K house, $100K down, $400K financed with fixed 30-year @ 4% = $1,900/month payment.
B) Same house purchased for $300K, same $100K down but now only needing a $200K mortgage, let's say financed using a 30-year fixed mortgage at 11% = $1,900/month payment.

Affordability, as calculated by the realtors, does not take into consideration the crushing implications of over indebtedness. Also, despite these low rates, we are not down the curve to the pre-bubble "affordability" levels of '98 - '00.

Housing: Most of the Decline Is Over

So... housing will defy the fundamentals of every other asset class (i.e. permanently remain at a value above its expected future cash flow streams)? I think that we are only halfway through the correction, and only if we manage to stop exactly on the historical mean. If we over correct (as most bubbles do) then instead of another 20% - 25% decline, we could see something more like 40%.

The home ATM is never coming back, we all have to give up the ghost of our over-consumptive economy and start embarking on more productive endeavours.

Two More Reasons I Think Housing Has Hit Bottom

Upon ye I envolk a "GRRRRRRRRRR". Oh ye silly bottom callers...

Home Prices Are Taking a Breather Before Heading Lower

After the Spring and Summer comes the Fall which portends the coming of long, cold, dark Winter. Wait until all of the Alt-A and Option ARM resets begin to really kick in later this year and next... The breather in price declines is merely a latching point which will hold for a couple of months before resuming its long journey downward.

California Real Estate Market Is Up

I heard that the California MLS includes foreclosures in their sales counts, i.e. when a bank forecloses on a home it get counted as a sale. If this is the case then that would explain why the number of transactions is way up. Also, it appears that some banks are "sitting" on their REOs and not putting them back onto the market, which would explain the drop in inventory levels... I'm still thinking bottom Fall 2010 or later.

The Housing Market Will Improve with Lower Prices, not Lower Interest Rates

It's simple, which is the better option:

A) A $500K house, $100K down, $400K financed with fixed 30-year @ 4% = $1,900/month payment.

B) Same house purchased for $300K, same $100K down but now only needing a $200K mortgage, let's say financed using a 30-year fixed mortgage at 11% = $1,900/month payment.

Although the resulting monthly payments are identical, the inputs are very different indeed. Your risk is obviously lower putting less principal at stake. The lower rates argument is merely another desperate attempt by those trying to prop up real estate (i.e. keep it still up in bubble territory). People have figured out this realtor payment spin...

Home Prices See Record Declines in July

Ok, so I'll call the bottom: We're about halfway there.

Think Housing's Bad? You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet

The futures contracts represent a nominal future target price so the real price declines will be greater, correct?