Griz

Case-Shiller Still Predicts Massive 45% Fall from Today’s Values

In contrast to may readers wishful thinking, the 1987 - 1997 trendline sits exactly on the 100-trend from the long-term (1896 to present) Case & Schiller study. It is the correct proxy for "normal" trended house prices.

Conservative Property Index Predicts We're Less than Halfway Through Fall

But, this time is different (ha, ha, ha, ha)... Stimulus has only temporarily plateaued the fall in prices; we are only halfway through the total descent back to trendline (if we are lucky).

Elizabeth Warren Highlights Washington's Losing Housing Battle

Agreed. Washington is trying to keep the house of cards intact until consumer morale improves, it is a waiting game. Problem is that the passing of time has begun to reinforce thrift instead of consumption; everything I see supports my belief that this paradigm shift is just beginning. Demand decline, the removal of "moral default stigma", rising unemployment, a coming epic reset wave and the impending house supply glut (which has been hidden by banks from the market) all conspire to drive housing prices much much lower in the coming years. Add onto that, the need for boomers to start downsizing/reducing their holdings as well...

Existing Home Sales Charts

The Feb 2.86% increase was just a "Spring Blip" as confirmed by March's -1.99% decline , thus continuing the downtrend. I think volume contraction will continue for quite some time...