Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Apple: Winning The Profit Battle, Losing The Smartphone War  [View article]
    "Long term" is a concept not readily understood (or accepted) by all the critics here. Apple has an awesome short-term future and an excellent medium-term future - it's long-term (10-15 years) prospects embody a high level of risk simply because it needs to keep its high momentum during that whole period in order to maintain its valuation. I'm neither an Apple basher nor an Apple fan, but I do find that Apple supporters have created a cult-like following that, in itself, may prop the company no matter what. Well, at least until something else sparks the next generation. Time will tell. Is anybody buying Apple shares for the long hall?
    Jan 28, 2015. 11:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google, Amazon May Join Xiaomi, Micromax In Leading Smartphone Prices To The Basement  [View article]
    That article is a work of art. It mirrors the spin "analysts" were preaching back in the days when they said "Apple will soon be worth 1,000 or even 1,500." A lot of people lost their shirts following that eloquent advice by "Apple preachers".
    I wouldn't short Apple in the short/medium term.
    Regardless, the questions are:
    a) when are some of Apple's competitors going to get their act together - it's true, Apple has been in a race with a bunch of lame horses.
    b) All it will take is one amazing future phone release from a competitor to weaken the cash cow (iPhones), in keeping with the line of thinking regarding Apple when it put Blackberry and others out of business. Remember the time when owning a Blackberry phone was like having a VIP card?
    So many things come and go, and people are always looking for something new, even if it's simply out of boredom with yesterday's excitement.
    Numbers only tell half the story.
    Apr 21, 2014. 07:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google, Amazon May Join Xiaomi, Micromax In Leading Smartphone Prices To The Basement  [View article]
    RSBDuff, I mainly agree with you.

    Smartphones are here to stay until something equally amazing replaces and adds to their functionalities.

    I find it a bit disturbing that many people can't fathom the phenomenom of the "smartphone craze" as just that...and the obvious implication that owning a premium brand name phone currently represents a desirable fashion accessory.
    The "eventual demise" of that "mindset" will definitely shock many investors, not to mention their Apple stocks.
    It's not a matter of "if" but, rather, "when".

    Then there are those who establish a correlation between the desire to own a Ferrari, a big house, etc., with the desire to own a premium phone. I suggest an "Apple Rehab" center for that kind of thinking.
    Apr 21, 2014. 03:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stock-Market Valuations Are At Dangerous Bull-Slaying Levels  [View article]
    "...equities as the least hostile place to park wealth for now."

    Until when?
    Apr 20, 2014. 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stock-Market Valuations Are At Dangerous Bull-Slaying Levels  [View article]
    I completely agree with you when you say that "when individuals attempt to time the market they generally lose."
    The key word here is "generally." Generally, individuals want to keep on winning and are scared during lows.
    I used to be a small-time real estate investor before I switched to stocks. My main criteria consisted of "when the average middle-class household income can no longer afford a mortgage on an average middle-class home, something is going to give." You wouldn't believe the number of well educated acquaintances, friends and family members who disagreed with me, some vehemently, based on all kinds of arguments. Modesty aside, I was very successful at predicting housing bubbles both in Canada and Portugal within a reasonable timeframe.
    All this to say that GENERALLY people believe what feels good at the time based on the greatly cited theory of "greed and fear."
    Apr 20, 2014. 07:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Q2 Results Are Likely To Disappoint  [View article]
    Well said Samuel,
    Personally, I wouldn't buy an Apple smartphone mostly because I would get this funny feeling that I bought it to show my acquaintances that I belong to the "cool/connoisseur" group. I believe that this mindset will take hold sooner than people realize (measured in years, not months).
    The Apple smartphone is already a product for the masses. If that doesn't ring a bell for investors, nothing will.
    On the other hand, investors can always gamble that Apple will come out with a new incredible wearable/medical+whatever device that will revolutionize your life.
    Since I don't gamble, I won't be buying any of the stock.
    Apr 20, 2014. 06:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stock-Market Valuations Are At Dangerous Bull-Slaying Levels  [View article]
    Insider, no hard feelings but:

    "pop," "end" "bubbles,"...thank you for the lesson in semantics.

    How about a lesson in hermeneutics: when you look at historical market charts all those terms pretty much have the same meaning in relation to the result - a correction.

    Second, Buffet, Bogle and investment funds can't just dump their huge holdings. Have you ever imagined what would happened if Buffet decided to sell 20% of his coca-cola holding on the market? The stock price would crash even before he sold off 10%.

    Furthermore, Buffet and others do time the market and do make huge profits from it. They can't dump stocks at peak prices (unlike you or me) but they can, and do, buy huge amounts of stocks when others are running for the hills during a "correction," or "crash," whatever you would like to call it.
    Apr 20, 2014. 04:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stock-Market Valuations Are At Dangerous Bull-Slaying Levels  [View article]
    Very insightful article.
    Sadly and despite your well founded advice, many investors will lose big once again.
    I'll never understand why people refuse to believe that bull markets must inevitably pop. It's happened so often. My feeling is that emotions speak louder than experience and clear thinking.
    Apr 19, 2014. 11:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Is Doing Its Very Best To Increase Earnings  [View article]

    Do you actually read other people's comments before throwing a jab.

    I said "THE THEORY (I repeat, 'the theory,' you know "as opposed to reality"...profits will start pouring in." I was comparing theory to reality.

    That wasn't so hard to understand was it?

    And by the way, market share is not necessarily transformed into profit down the line when that market share was gained by selling things at a miniscule profit.

    Don't know if this is your case, but a lot of mo-mo stock owners are getting real edgy about the overdue correction.
    Apr 19, 2014. 10:04 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Is Doing Its Very Best To Increase Earnings  [View article]
    I meant that most companies focus on a core business and may branch out from that by leveraging their synergies. Yes, obviously they're also continuously working on innovation and best-in-class products...
    Amazon is like a retailer/supplier that rents the largest shop in a shopping mall and then proceeds to sell nearly everything all the other shops offer at a lower price. That may be a simplistic view, but that's how I see it.
    The theory is that, in time, they'll dominate the market and profits will start pouring in.
    It's been a long time, all I see is more products, more ideas, more experiments - meager profits.
    Apr 19, 2014. 04:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Is Doing Its Very Best To Increase Earnings  [View article]
    I like the article. However, like most articles I've read about Amazon, there's an excess of speculative thinking being thrown around simply because, as was correctly indicated, Amazon is like an iceberg - we only see its tip. The philosopher Emanuel Kant would surely blow his top reading all these "ifs" and "maybes".
    I may be wrong, but I wouldn't buy one share in this company until Jeff stops acting like a kid in a toy factory.
    Imagine Apple - or any other successful company - always relentlessly working on 1,000 different things.
    Hey Jeff, we get the picture, you're brilliant, now start focusing on making money
    Apr 18, 2014. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: $100 Price Target Is Justified  [View article]
    Mr. Fripp,
    You've made some good points and, yes, there was too much enthusiasm in buying 3D printing stocks.
    However, with all due respect, I find your acidic outlook for the 3D industry very humorous.
    3D printing will become BIG...the question is not "if" but "when" and "who".
    Apr 18, 2014. 12:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greatest Danger For Stock Investors Today  [View article]
    1) I didn't imply that one should sell everything when the first tremor is felt.
    2) There are companies and there are momentum stocks: companies perform - sometimes better sometimes worse - regardless of the weather; momentum stocks are very susceptible to the weather.
    3) Adjusting may not be safe for any stock and downright dangerous for momentum stocks because a minor correction can quickly turn into a big correction. And how can you guess that?
    If you start selling your more vulnerable positions when prices seem to have become disconnected from reality, you are sure to always win in every cycle.
    The tactic of "Wait and see, I'll adjust." That's how big money is lost and how many investors end up panicking and selling on the down slide or holding full positions through down cycles based on the assumption that the market will rise again sooner or later and thus you've lost nothing in the very long term, which is a fallacy.
    Obviously, everything I've just said is worthless if investors have the "emotional high casino mentality."
    Apr 17, 2014. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Short Stocks?  [View article]
    That's what I said.
    Economists and "qualified" analysts have a tendency to get it wrong...or have a tendency to mislead small investors.
    The philosophical (logical) approach is the only way to win.
    It's almost lunacy to believe that the market as a whole will continue to climb and climb because "this time it's different".
    This time, like all other times, the market will correct. Picking the exact date - thats another matter.
    Apr 17, 2014. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greatest Danger For Stock Investors Today  [View article]
    You're right, we're not in a "raging bear market".
    Here are the options:
    1) we're at the start of a bear market;
    2) we're experiencing a correction in momentum/tech stocks that is infecting other stocks;
    3) We're in a bull market and this slide is a hiccup.

    If 1 is the real scenario, it will prove that many investors are hard wired to make the same mistakes over and over by hanging on and on....
    If 2 is the real scenario and you're betting on it, billions have already been lost and likely won't be recouped before the real bear walks in.
    If 3 is the real scenario then, yes, I'm a fool.
    I'd rather risk being a fool for not making a few more bucks than risk being a fool for losing my shirt.
    It's all sentiment, logic and probability.
    Apr 12, 2014. 02:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment