klemenv

2 Geothermal Heat Pump Stocks to Consider

On Dec 22 11:39 AM Chris B wrote:

> $20k to dig a hole and install some tubing in the back yard? That
> seems kind of high to me. You could rent a backhoe yourself for
> a couple hundred a day! Sounds like you either have no space to
> work with or live on extremely rocky soil. If not, I'd suggest another
> estimate. Sometimes, a highball quote is a contractor's way of saying
> no thanks to a too-small job.

By saying geothermal, do you mean digging 50-70 m holes and using geothermal energy, or you mean laying down pipes at 1.5 meter in the ground and using sun energy stored in ground?

First one could cost more than 20K and is the most efficient.

Second one costs 2K more that air-to-water system and is very efficient (but fractionally less than geothermal).

Comparisement between air-to-water and ground-source pretty much depends on location. If winter temperatures do not get bellow 5 degrees Celsious, air-to-water is most economical. Bellow that, ground source is better.

Disclosure: (my father is long in air-to-water heat pump :)

Uranium: Analysts Forgot Yellow Cake

"The reactors consume 167 million pounds of uranium on an annual basis. The problem is that current mine production is only 108 million pounds per year."

In the mid term I see no other alternative to curb CO2 emition, but nuclear. If the uranium price tripple, nuclear power stations would still be profitable.

The only downside (read:not so upside) is that one company controls production of steel casting for reactors and is sold out for years.

Calculating Country Risk Observed by Betas

Yeah, looks like 'free lunch' is over or getting over.

Solar Grid Parity: The Great $1 Myth

Also, you may include 'cool' effect.

It is cool to have PV on your roof. One may not be willing to invest 100K, but would one invest 20K. Many would.

Expect Continued Drops in Solar

In Q4 STP is processing expensive Q3 polysilicon.

If they would be processing poly bought on the spot market, their margin would be intact.

Why I'm Bullish on the Solar Sector

I beleive there is intrinsic value in solar stocks missed by analysts.

At current prices demand may vanish, and normaly that would trigger alarm.

But, note that STP non-silicon costs are 0,7 $/W. Note that price of poly will decrease from 280$/Kg (in Q3) to bellow 100$. Let's project price at 80$/Kg.

It takes 6g of poly for 1W.

So poly costs of module will decrease from 1,68$ to 0,48$.

So overall costs may decrease from 2,38$/W to 1,18$/W.

If the price of modules drops significantly, there will be huge demand for them.

The word of caution, manufacturers that have contract obligation to purchaise poly at Q3 prices will struggle.

Overstock.com's Obfuscations

I see, so it was cooking books that brought stock down, I always thought that short sellers we responsible for bad performance :)

great article

As Solar Plummets, Stocks Drop Below Book Value

Well, currently our local price of modules is at 6 evr/ watt, 10evr/W installed. That makes ROI sci-fy. Our feed in rate is 40 cents/KWh.

It is predicted, that ex-works price of modules could be at 3 evr/W next year.

At assumption of 20 years of life time, here is ROI as function of price:

6evr/W ... 3,04%
5evr/W .... 5,17%

what about thin film?

4evr/W ... 8,04% that sounds better than fixed interest

bottomline, if the price of modules drops, average Joe here is going to start putting modules on his roof.

The Long Case for Gushan Environmental Energy

I thought that above $12, Gusham is a little pricey. Well, at current levels it is a steal. Good article.

A Flash in the Pan - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/16/08)

Looks like EJ is a sure buy now :)

A Look at Four Polysilicon-Based PV Manufacturers' Funding

According to pv-tech on 7th of July:

Canadian Solar, Inc. has inked five new sales contracts totalling 14.9MW over the past three weeks. The Italy- and Czech Republic-based companies, who will receive a total of 14.9MW of modules from Canadian Solar in the second half of 2008, are: Arco Energy, AC Service, Ravano Green Power and Albatec in Italy and WSW in the Czech Republic.

With this new set of orders, CSI's geographic sales are as follows, with all figures estimated: 60% from Germany, 15% from Spain, 7% from the USA, and 10% from newly emerging markets in the rest of Europe. Approximately 8% of this year’s sales figures are from South Korea and China.

RBS Spoils the Fun

In last two months many bad things have happened. Really bad. And yet market has not crashed.

OK, nothing can help to Ninja-HELOCs-ARM guys.

But beyond that, in light of all that bad events, we have not obsereved sky falling.

Because of that, I am with contrarians.

Will Quicksilver Continue to Benefit from High Energy Prices?

Fortunatly/unfortunatl... KWK hedge most of their expenses.

Unfortunatly, because they have lock in lower prices.

Fortunatly, because in case prices would drop, they would have hedged their positions in order to be able to pay fixed costs.

Talking About RAROC: Is "Financial Innovation" Good for Bank Profitability?

Funny thing with Regulatory and Economic capital is that one cannot cheat economic capital. If bank management 'adjust' estimates to create fake capital requirements, bank losses will haunt them down.

True power of RAROC calculations is that enables management to make decission, if particular transaction (or class of transactions) if profitable for them.

And remember, regulatory capitals creates opportunistic loss (lower ROE, or interest non-earning deposits at central bank, etc.) while economic capital creates real loss (write-offs, losses).

But any system is as good as it is enforced. If regulators are scared to enforced it with Lying Brothers & Co. than ...

Encouraging News on Subprime Mortgage Delinquency Roll Rates

Good post. Have you made analysis on Alt-A ?