klemenv

Expect Continued Drops in Solar

In Q4 STP is processing expensive Q3 polysilicon.

If they would be processing poly bought on the spot market, their margin would be intact.

Why I'm Bullish on the Solar Sector

I beleive there is intrinsic value in solar stocks missed by analysts.

At current prices demand may vanish, and normaly that would trigger alarm.

But, note that STP non-silicon costs are 0,7 $/W. Note that price of poly will decrease from 280$/Kg (in Q3) to bellow 100$. Let's project price at 80$/Kg.

It takes 6g of poly for 1W.

So poly costs of module will decrease from 1,68$ to 0,48$.

So overall costs may decrease from 2,38$/W to 1,18$/W.

If the price of modules drops significantly, there will be huge demand for them.

The word of caution, manufacturers that have contract obligation to purchaise poly at Q3 prices will struggle.

As Solar Plummets, Stocks Drop Below Book Value

Well, currently our local price of modules is at 6 evr/ watt, 10evr/W installed. That makes ROI sci-fy. Our feed in rate is 40 cents/KWh.

It is predicted, that ex-works price of modules could be at 3 evr/W next year.

At assumption of 20 years of life time, here is ROI as function of price:

6evr/W ... 3,04%
5evr/W .... 5,17%

what about thin film?

4evr/W ... 8,04% that sounds better than fixed interest

bottomline, if the price of modules drops, average Joe here is going to start putting modules on his roof.