District Banker

Delinquent Mortgages Equal to Three Times the Balanced For-Sale Inventory

Your lead chart is pretty intersting. I would note that your Y axis is titled "millions" but then the actual number is also in millions. My point is, that chart shows that there are 12,000,000 million (12 million million) delinquent mortgages (obviously not the case). It's a small point, but attention to detail when dealing with data is a good thing - otherwise people will question your diligence.

Property Values - Eight Key Charts

Wrong. Case-Shiller data excludes foreclosure data.


On Aug 19 10:29 AM nym wrote:

> It seems to me that the affordability chart reflects: large turnover
> in certain states (CA, NV, AZ etc.), mostly of in the bottom half
> of the market on distress (foreclosure et al.) sales. Your results
> may vary. Also, note that the source is NAR, National Association
> of Realators: guess what butters their bread.

Property Values - Eight Key Charts

Both the author and Andrew (below) are missing the KEY point with the S&P/Case-Shiller Index: IT EXCLUDES FORECLOSURE SALES DATA.

In normal times, this is good practice, as foreclosures are driven by personal events (divorce, loss of employment, etc) - and are not necessarily indicative of true pricing trends.

Today, however - foreclosures are driven by massive price declines, and aggressive borrowing (I-O, Pay-Option ARM, etc) that only works when prices appreciate. Ignoring foreclosure sales today is ignoring meaningful data from numerous markets across the US: CA, FL, MI, GA, Phoenix, Las Vegas & so on...


On Aug 19 05:57 AM Andrew Butter wrote:

> Nice clear article.
>
> Don't agree 60% peak to trough the extrapolation (red line) on the
> Shiller chart is not correct, the correct extrapolation is roughly
> the line of nominal GDP per housing unit.
>
> My analysis says 40% peak to trough, nearly there.