Mike Mosieur's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/18758/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/18995-reflexive-changes-in-real-estate?source=feed#comment-71729 71729
A good site to see this is forsakencraft.com, amoung others.

The slide has begun and who knows when but real estate will bottom out.

I think Pauls comments apply in either direction.]]> Tue, 24 Oct 2006 08:06:07 -0400
A good site to see this is forsakencraft.com, amoung others.

The slide has begun and who knows when but real estate will bottom out.

I think Pauls comments apply in either direction.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/18667-housing-what-does-return-to-mean-really-mean?source=feed#comment-70752 70752
I think you are right on the money, except real appreciation is in the 3% per year range, just a little ahead of inflation. Pheonix may be the exception.

You are correct when you point out that no one seems to be considering RTM, a basic economic principle. In fact this is the first time I've seen an article on it.

I live in Central Florida, or "Bubble Central" I figure a house that sold for $100,000 in 2000 is now worth $120,000 to $123,000 today, 2006. Presantly that house is priced at 180,000 to 200,000 so we have a 30 to 40% decline ahead. RTM is like gravity. What goes up (or down) will eventuality return to the mean.]]> Wed, 18 Oct 2006 14:35:22 -0400
I think you are right on the money, except real appreciation is in the 3% per year range, just a little ahead of inflation. Pheonix may be the exception.

You are correct when you point out that no one seems to be considering RTM, a basic economic principle. In fact this is the first time I've seen an article on it.

I live in Central Florida, or "Bubble Central" I figure a house that sold for $100,000 in 2000 is now worth $120,000 to $123,000 today, 2006. Presantly that house is priced at 180,000 to 200,000 so we have a 30 to 40% decline ahead. RTM is like gravity. What goes up (or down) will eventuality return to the mean.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/18652-no-stabilization-in-the-housing-market?source=feed#comment-70744 70744
It's just a bump on the long slide to oblivion.

Grasping at straws.

Mike]]> Wed, 18 Oct 2006 13:41:12 -0400
It's just a bump on the long slide to oblivion.

Grasping at straws.

Mike]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/17464-home-prices-fall-for-first-time-in-decade?source=feed#comment-66447 66447
"Why Don't Big Housing Sales Drop Produce Big Price Drops" I believe was a question posed above. One answer is that when a house closes, it is considered "sold". However the price it closes at was determined 3 to 6 months previously when the contract was written. This would be on a previously owned home. Some sales of new construction don't close for a year. So the sale price, or the price at closing, in a declining market will lag the actual sale price of a similar home on the day of closing. We won't know Augusts real sales prices until possibly December.

Realtors do other things to bend the numbers like instead of reducing the price of a house, they pull the listing and relist it as a new listing for the reduced price. Susequently the data on time of listing and price reductions looks better than it actually is. Also, with new houses and now some previously owned houses the sellers are offering spiffs, like cars, vacations and cash back. The value of these items are not usually reflected in the sales price.

I make more money in a down market than a hot one. I only hope that the coming blood bath in the real estate market will not effect the overall economy to badly. There is a differance between cutting yourself shaving and hacking your arm off with a machette. Unfortunatly, I suspect the worst scenario. I have never seen it like this. All we can do is hope for the best.

As a parting shot, I believe that Alan Greenspan will go down in history as the most reviled person of the decade. His attempt to save us from the fallout from the dot com bubble by lowering the prime rate to 1% has had the unintended consequence of creating the out of control Frankenstein Monster the real estate market has become. I am afraid we ain't seen nothin' yet, including but not limited to an S&L type bank disaster. Lets hope for the best and make money on the great real estate deals that are definitly coming.]]> Tue, 26 Sep 2006 18:02:29 -0400
"Why Don't Big Housing Sales Drop Produce Big Price Drops" I believe was a question posed above. One answer is that when a house closes, it is considered "sold". However the price it closes at was determined 3 to 6 months previously when the contract was written. This would be on a previously owned home. Some sales of new construction don't close for a year. So the sale price, or the price at closing, in a declining market will lag the actual sale price of a similar home on the day of closing. We won't know Augusts real sales prices until possibly December.

Realtors do other things to bend the numbers like instead of reducing the price of a house, they pull the listing and relist it as a new listing for the reduced price. Susequently the data on time of listing and price reductions looks better than it actually is. Also, with new houses and now some previously owned houses the sellers are offering spiffs, like cars, vacations and cash back. The value of these items are not usually reflected in the sales price.

I make more money in a down market than a hot one. I only hope that the coming blood bath in the real estate market will not effect the overall economy to badly. There is a differance between cutting yourself shaving and hacking your arm off with a machette. Unfortunatly, I suspect the worst scenario. I have never seen it like this. All we can do is hope for the best.

As a parting shot, I believe that Alan Greenspan will go down in history as the most reviled person of the decade. His attempt to save us from the fallout from the dot com bubble by lowering the prime rate to 1% has had the unintended consequence of creating the out of control Frankenstein Monster the real estate market has become. I am afraid we ain't seen nothin' yet, including but not limited to an S&L type bank disaster. Lets hope for the best and make money on the great real estate deals that are definitly coming.]]>