keithpiccirillo's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/187642/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/172432-china-may-be-eying-metallurgical-coal-acquisition?source=feed#comment-760390 760390 Sat, 14 Nov 2009 15:07:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164260-india-s-monsoon-never-came-indian-markets-don-t-care?source=feed#comment-698193 698193 Hedge funds have been piling into sugar, but when it drops it will be a broken elevator cord type of move.
Mad Fund Trader:
IFN is one that had multiple tops, and I was looking for it to get to $32.

finviz.com/quote.ashx?...]]> Thu, 01 Oct 2009 08:11:20 -0400 Hedge funds have been piling into sugar, but when it drops it will be a broken elevator cord type of move.
Mad Fund Trader:
IFN is one that had multiple tops, and I was looking for it to get to $32.

finviz.com/quote.ashx?...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162601-cocoa-and-sugar-etns-could-sweeten-your-portfolio?source=feed#comment-697900 697900 I wonder what the impact would be if the sugar ethanol tariff in our country was repealed and how that would impact supply and move prices.
With a midwestern president, I don't see that as it would irk the lobbyists.
Some day it will be done.]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 21:57:42 -0400 I wonder what the impact would be if the sugar ethanol tariff in our country was repealed and how that would impact supply and move prices.
With a midwestern president, I don't see that as it would irk the lobbyists.
Some day it will be done.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163756-sugars-sweet-to-etn-investors?source=feed#comment-697863 697863 Wed, 30 Sep 2009 21:52:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85186-retail-plays-for-bad-times?source=feed#comment-615461 615461 Thanks.]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 19:01:40 -0400 Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146283-can-the-turkey-etf-overcome-its-challenges?source=feed#comment-581420 581420 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 19:09:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140392-u-s-versus-japan-versus-south-korea?source=feed#comment-525706 525706 I have held The Korea Fund (KF) for over 20 years, but that 10-1 reverse split was really painful.]]> Sun, 31 May 2009 19:37:14 -0400 I have held The Korea Fund (KF) for over 20 years, but that 10-1 reverse split was really painful.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137359-are-the-green-shoots-indeed-sprouting?source=feed#comment-502822 502822 According to Roubini's latest blog there are few "green shoots".
In the old Cleveland Municipal Stadium in Ohio, they occasionally spray painted the dirt green to trick the eye.
Also, in May, if you plant your marigolds too soon, frost may ruin the growth of your investment.]]> Wed, 13 May 2009 19:15:50 -0400 According to Roubini's latest blog there are few "green shoots".
In the old Cleveland Municipal Stadium in Ohio, they occasionally spray painted the dirt green to trick the eye.
Also, in May, if you plant your marigolds too soon, frost may ruin the growth of your investment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117576-baltic-dry-index-the-best-economic-indicator-you-ve-never-heard-of?source=feed#comment-371675 371675
www.marketoracle.co.uk...
I had DRYS as a trade from $5.6.-$6.50 or so and exited, and recently got stopped out of EXM with a 2% loss so I have been interested.
One other real concern, is what was mentioned earlier about the survivorship of some of these dry bulk shippers with broken covenants and lack of credit/lending. When blood goes into the water the surviving sharks will be even stronger and good to profit from.
Steel is another shipped commodity to watch - China infrastructure requirements will be great and the last report I read they were shutting and limiting domestic production.
]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 21:34:48 -0500
www.marketoracle.co.uk...
I had DRYS as a trade from $5.6.-$6.50 or so and exited, and recently got stopped out of EXM with a 2% loss so I have been interested.
One other real concern, is what was mentioned earlier about the survivorship of some of these dry bulk shippers with broken covenants and lack of credit/lending. When blood goes into the water the surviving sharks will be even stronger and good to profit from.
Steel is another shipped commodity to watch - China infrastructure requirements will be great and the last report I read they were shutting and limiting domestic production.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117628-think-tech-is-safe-not-really-look-at-qualcomm?source=feed#comment-371664 371664
www.marketoracle.co.uk...

One other chart implies tech could lead out of a recession, but we're only halfway through perhaps.
6-12 months from now tech could be even cheaper. Individual stocks with liquidity within this, and all sectors, should be much stronger as some of the weaker companies will be absorbed and they gain market share.

www.financialsense.com...]]> Fri, 30 Jan 2009 21:01:34 -0500
www.marketoracle.co.uk...

One other chart implies tech could lead out of a recession, but we're only halfway through perhaps.
6-12 months from now tech could be even cheaper. Individual stocks with liquidity within this, and all sectors, should be much stronger as some of the weaker companies will be absorbed and they gain market share.

www.financialsense.com...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117150-i-m-old-school?source=feed#comment-369360 369360 Cnbc must be listened to selectively - today I did watch the Heebner segment with Cramer. Watch MarketWatch on Bloomberg weekend.
It is much less confrontational.
That last week in November until last week period was predominantly bullish.]]> Wed, 28 Jan 2009 21:33:00 -0500 Cnbc must be listened to selectively - today I did watch the Heebner segment with Cramer. Watch MarketWatch on Bloomberg weekend.
It is much less confrontational.
That last week in November until last week period was predominantly bullish.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115616-state-street-crumbles-we-are-running-out-of-large-banks?source=feed#comment-361733 361733 This plan if it could be implemented, requires you to be a trusting soul in a less than ideal world.
Europe and the British Isles in particular, have their own problems keeping some semblance of order, and you want to bring the soup to a boil?
How much of the MBS/derivative exposure can even be tracked from beginning to end to assign?
I believe each country would not be very willing to have their corporations show this, and many of them would just pull the Geitner crime of commission by omission.]]> Wed, 21 Jan 2009 09:04:37 -0500 This plan if it could be implemented, requires you to be a trusting soul in a less than ideal world.
Europe and the British Isles in particular, have their own problems keeping some semblance of order, and you want to bring the soup to a boil?
How much of the MBS/derivative exposure can even be tracked from beginning to end to assign?
I believe each country would not be very willing to have their corporations show this, and many of them would just pull the Geitner crime of commission by omission.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115123-hdfc-down-7-no-surprise?source=feed#comment-357513 357513 Thanks for the lead.
Now I have to "shore up" on that EXM position...]]> Fri, 16 Jan 2009 09:54:29 -0500 Thanks for the lead.
Now I have to "shore up" on that EXM position...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115053-best-in-class-vornado-will-pay-dividend-in-stock?source=feed#comment-357388 357388 SRS within all this mess.]]> Fri, 16 Jan 2009 08:21:20 -0500 SRS within all this mess.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115123-hdfc-down-7-no-surprise?source=feed#comment-357374 357374 Does the losers average losers premise apply here? All of the sector has been getting whacked and is a follower, not a leader off poor earnings and debt levels.
I'm sad but not mad.
This morning is looking up pretty big, C has broken 2 of its eggs and will try to reorganize to make an edible omelet.
Watch for the profit taking again on what should be another volatile day.
It's going to take a while longer for this global growth story, the dbi is turning up ever so slowly, but I am reading 6 months for both China and us to get going with infrastructure. ]]> Fri, 16 Jan 2009 08:11:10 -0500 Does the losers average losers premise apply here? All of the sector has been getting whacked and is a follower, not a leader off poor earnings and debt levels.
I'm sad but not mad.
This morning is looking up pretty big, C has broken 2 of its eggs and will try to reorganize to make an edible omelet.
Watch for the profit taking again on what should be another volatile day.
It's going to take a while longer for this global growth story, the dbi is turning up ever so slowly, but I am reading 6 months for both China and us to get going with infrastructure. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114983-where-citigroup-went-wrong?source=feed#comment-357106 357106 This was addressed by Warren Buffett in his 2005 address to shareholders how stock buybucks fritter away the balance sheet every time.






]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2009 20:27:15 -0500 This was addressed by Warren Buffett in his 2005 address to shareholders how stock buybucks fritter away the balance sheet every time.






]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114867-best-and-worst-performing-stocks-of-2009?source=feed#comment-357086 357086 There was a trade available today from around noon to three. ]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2009 19:49:07 -0500 There was a trade available today from around noon to three. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114742-dry-bulk-shipping-recent-bdi-rise-is-heartening?source=feed#comment-357001 357001 I have traded DRYS and currently hold EXM and am a bit concerned about not holding one that goes bankrupt - hence have looked at SEA.
Today was an especially tradable day in the transports.
]]> Thu, 15 Jan 2009 17:27:34 -0500 I have traded DRYS and currently hold EXM and am a bit concerned about not holding one that goes bankrupt - hence have looked at SEA.
Today was an especially tradable day in the transports.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113751-smart-funds-appear-to-be-surprisingly-defensive?source=feed#comment-350341 350341 I occasionally use ETF shorts as a pairs trade to parlay CGMFX, darting in and out of SKF and SRS when I read about great pain, and yes, sometimes my own.
Heebner's returns seem to have consistently underperformed the S & P 500 since mid November with CGMFX not gaining much ground on rising above the moving averages. He is not yet outperforming his peers.
CGMFX was in the bottom decile recently, a place he rarely visits.
Perhaps he has added other shielded positions as of last quarter besides WMT and MCD until he can see glimpses of a Phoenix type sector in the sunrise.
Clearly the bank financial play did not work, insurance was his latest dance, and he has lost his old Mojo. He must still have the gold and mining exposure and may add to it.
Weakened demand will equal lower earnings and lower stock prices across all sectors, making a focused fund even more challenging.
Transports and shippers in particular, with improving BDI index is the one I am watching but don't want to dock with the shipping stock without a chair when the music stops.
An informed trader type growth fund manager does not concern themselves with liquidity, yet one would think near term a heavier low beta exposure is the place to mend wounds until the slow and labourious opportunities present themselves.
Mid November marked a low that may yet be revisited in 2009, and big hulk funds are just not nimble enough to turn their frigates in time.
I tend to believe more in what Roubini and Marc Faber say to help keep my guard up.
In bear markets one should be basically neutral or bearish.
Thanks.]]> Thu, 08 Jan 2009 23:00:40 -0500 I occasionally use ETF shorts as a pairs trade to parlay CGMFX, darting in and out of SKF and SRS when I read about great pain, and yes, sometimes my own.
Heebner's returns seem to have consistently underperformed the S & P 500 since mid November with CGMFX not gaining much ground on rising above the moving averages. He is not yet outperforming his peers.
CGMFX was in the bottom decile recently, a place he rarely visits.
Perhaps he has added other shielded positions as of last quarter besides WMT and MCD until he can see glimpses of a Phoenix type sector in the sunrise.
Clearly the bank financial play did not work, insurance was his latest dance, and he has lost his old Mojo. He must still have the gold and mining exposure and may add to it.
Weakened demand will equal lower earnings and lower stock prices across all sectors, making a focused fund even more challenging.
Transports and shippers in particular, with improving BDI index is the one I am watching but don't want to dock with the shipping stock without a chair when the music stops.
An informed trader type growth fund manager does not concern themselves with liquidity, yet one would think near term a heavier low beta exposure is the place to mend wounds until the slow and labourious opportunities present themselves.
Mid November marked a low that may yet be revisited in 2009, and big hulk funds are just not nimble enough to turn their frigates in time.
I tend to believe more in what Roubini and Marc Faber say to help keep my guard up.
In bear markets one should be basically neutral or bearish.
Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113739-starting-hdfc-bank-on-satyam-scandal?source=feed#comment-349213 349213 Chart looked good even prior to today.
BKX was off todayand VIX deteriorated.
I'm in on this tomorrow, as a trade, the risk is concurrent with C or any of it's ilk.
Little divis don't matter for a trade, but they're growing their revenues, although the beta is pretty high at 1.7 for longs.
Thanks for the reminder, I can use today's DUG winnings to pay for this shindig.

finance.yahoo.com/q/ta...=]]> Wed, 07 Jan 2009 21:06:28 -0500 Chart looked good even prior to today.
BKX was off todayand VIX deteriorated.
I'm in on this tomorrow, as a trade, the risk is concurrent with C or any of it's ilk.
Little divis don't matter for a trade, but they're growing their revenues, although the beta is pretty high at 1.7 for longs.
Thanks for the reminder, I can use today's DUG winnings to pay for this shindig.

finance.yahoo.com/q/ta...=]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113738-monsanto-earnings-quite-awesome?source=feed#comment-349201 349201 So it goes.
This company is the Dr. StrangeLove company for seeds, selling twice the rate of its competitors and a major sponsor of that Svalbard deep frozen site backed by Bill Gates and a few select corporations and Norway.


rastaseed.wordpress.co.../
]]> Wed, 07 Jan 2009 20:30:07 -0500 So it goes.
This company is the Dr. StrangeLove company for seeds, selling twice the rate of its competitors and a major sponsor of that Svalbard deep frozen site backed by Bill Gates and a few select corporations and Norway.


rastaseed.wordpress.co.../
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113265-green-investments-lots-of-alternatives-with-big-names-for-safety?source=feed#comment-348080 348080 I use GEX for my solar exposure and Vestas instead of FAN.
Vestas has performed very well, and from the first week of December until just recently it kept moving as oil went down - which broke the pattern of trading together and surprised me. ]]> Tue, 06 Jan 2009 21:39:38 -0500 I use GEX for my solar exposure and Vestas instead of FAN.
Vestas has performed very well, and from the first week of December until just recently it kept moving as oil went down - which broke the pattern of trading together and surprised me. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112127-cramer-is-right-about-ultrashort-etfs?source=feed#comment-337132 337132 I have played SKF, DUG, EEV, and SRS and have never held any one of them for more than 5 days.
I look for oversold conditions on MACD, stochastics, with an elevated VIX that is rising, along with a few other conditions. The rebalancing overnight with accompanying gappage is tough to deal with.
Personally I think SRS should be the best one to trade in the first quarter of 2009, but we will have to see if these securities will get clamped down on by the SEC. Just take a number.
A small part of my IRA has turned into a casino and that is not what I intended.
Paul Tudor Jones said, "Losers average losers".
I always sell if it starts to head south, and let the winners run a bit with trailing stoppage. ETF's can trend a lot, so one has to make a pretty educated guess that it is and will continue to trend up.
Looking forward to more stable markets though, that's for sure.]]> Tue, 23 Dec 2008 20:13:12 -0500 I have played SKF, DUG, EEV, and SRS and have never held any one of them for more than 5 days.
I look for oversold conditions on MACD, stochastics, with an elevated VIX that is rising, along with a few other conditions. The rebalancing overnight with accompanying gappage is tough to deal with.
Personally I think SRS should be the best one to trade in the first quarter of 2009, but we will have to see if these securities will get clamped down on by the SEC. Just take a number.
A small part of my IRA has turned into a casino and that is not what I intended.
Paul Tudor Jones said, "Losers average losers".
I always sell if it starts to head south, and let the winners run a bit with trailing stoppage. ETF's can trend a lot, so one has to make a pretty educated guess that it is and will continue to trend up.
Looking forward to more stable markets though, that's for sure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111306-ultrashort-real-estate-drop-demonstrates-unlimited-faith-in-a-recovery?source=feed#comment-332672 332672 If you look at the list of companies Flash Gordon has included, these are the very good REIT's, as Kenneth Heebner of CGMFX had at least 2 or 3 from this list.
I still play SRS, but pick my spots.
A continued push for a drop in mortgage interest rates does not help real estate short psychology.]]> Wed, 17 Dec 2008 21:52:42 -0500 If you look at the list of companies Flash Gordon has included, these are the very good REIT's, as Kenneth Heebner of CGMFX had at least 2 or 3 from this list.
I still play SRS, but pick my spots.
A continued push for a drop in mortgage interest rates does not help real estate short psychology.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110603-3-ways-to-play-the-dollar-s-reaction-to-monday-s-manufacturing-report?source=feed#comment-329377 329377 We will now in about 20 hours how the Daily FX idea worked out for Monday's start, but nothing is static and it may be a non event - dollar hasn't moved crazy like equities and there are a myriad of factors that move the dollar.
A trader who charts may go with the UUP as its been down 5 straight days or 4.6%.
However a lower interest rate on Wednesday would probably drop the dollar and it may be a Tuesday evening play of the UDN.
We have more deficits in the near future as imports should exceed exports for quite a while. Our credit status will not get better which will hurt the dollar too.]]> Sun, 14 Dec 2008 18:05:31 -0500 We will now in about 20 hours how the Daily FX idea worked out for Monday's start, but nothing is static and it may be a non event - dollar hasn't moved crazy like equities and there are a myriad of factors that move the dollar.
A trader who charts may go with the UUP as its been down 5 straight days or 4.6%.
However a lower interest rate on Wednesday would probably drop the dollar and it may be a Tuesday evening play of the UDN.
We have more deficits in the near future as imports should exceed exports for quite a while. Our credit status will not get better which will hurt the dollar too.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110428-market-not-giving-microsoft-credit-for-its-true-sum-of-the-parts-valuation?source=feed#comment-328364 328364 So when is Gate's going to stop flooding the market with his shares, and will this stock ever perform without a search engine?]]> Sat, 13 Dec 2008 14:20:51 -0500 So when is Gate's going to stop flooding the market with his shares, and will this stock ever perform without a search engine?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110484-where-the-obama-stimulus-plan-helps-tech?source=feed#comment-328362 328362 As for the stock plays, I am waiting for the re-test that I believe will come in the next 6 months where many infrastructure stocks will have to be sold off yet again.]]> Sat, 13 Dec 2008 14:19:14 -0500 As for the stock plays, I am waiting for the re-test that I believe will come in the next 6 months where many infrastructure stocks will have to be sold off yet again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110494-international-overdiversification?source=feed#comment-328354 328354 Most funds are "watered down" enough with diversification, and that is why I use a focused growth mutual fund and play individual stocks for the dividends in the S & P (JNJ & MSFT) whom I think can have limited downside and it's worked out fairly well in this recession so far...]]> Sat, 13 Dec 2008 14:12:43 -0500 Most funds are "watered down" enough with diversification, and that is why I use a focused growth mutual fund and play individual stocks for the dividends in the S & P (JNJ & MSFT) whom I think can have limited downside and it's worked out fairly well in this recession so far...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110199-heebner-turns-really-bullish-on-market?source=feed#comment-326831 326831 As for Mr Heebner's belief in a cyclical market recovery, apparently he thinks stocks will recover as falling prices coupled will falling incomes will force a reduction in consumption with resulting equilibrium through an increase in aggregate demand (government infrastructure spending).
This will be implemented when and if the government interventions into the money centers and credit availability to those worthy reoccurs.
America will have to become a nation much better at saving to help mitigate our trade imbalance.
The late bear/early bull scenario that he envisions may be rooted not in a cyclical market recovery but an economic fluctuation model wherein when money supply and liquidity become sufficient worldwide with low interest rates.
The resultant improved stock market cycle could then occur.
I keep looking to the Baltic Dry Index, China and dry goods and iron ore as a signal that conditions have improved and change is imminent.
Perhaps Mr. Heebner also believes in political business cycle strength, wherein a charismatic new administration with its expansionary policy could also be the impetus to turn market emotion and psychology.
I was just at the Markov Processes International site, and give you credit for being able to deduce such things pertaining to a fund's probable sector holdings.
These dynamic modeling styles of analysis by data mining return streams, performing regression analysis, apparently can tell not only what sectors a fund's allocation is, but also if a hedge fund has strayed from its stated goals and objectives and is currently in much trouble!
I have started looking deeper into the Focus Fund's Sharpe ratio, and his beta and do not see any disparity that raises alarm as compared with other fund managers of this type risk in present recessionary period.
His Alpha has always been very good.
However, the low Treynor ratio of 2.14 seems poor as a ranking criteria.
Decades ago I started a masters degree in Research Measurement and Evaluation in Connecticut but only got halfway through it, so you have my respect and admiration.
Keep up your succinct and thoughtful articles.]]> Thu, 11 Dec 2008 20:05:24 -0500 As for Mr Heebner's belief in a cyclical market recovery, apparently he thinks stocks will recover as falling prices coupled will falling incomes will force a reduction in consumption with resulting equilibrium through an increase in aggregate demand (government infrastructure spending).
This will be implemented when and if the government interventions into the money centers and credit availability to those worthy reoccurs.
America will have to become a nation much better at saving to help mitigate our trade imbalance.
The late bear/early bull scenario that he envisions may be rooted not in a cyclical market recovery but an economic fluctuation model wherein when money supply and liquidity become sufficient worldwide with low interest rates.
The resultant improved stock market cycle could then occur.
I keep looking to the Baltic Dry Index, China and dry goods and iron ore as a signal that conditions have improved and change is imminent.
Perhaps Mr. Heebner also believes in political business cycle strength, wherein a charismatic new administration with its expansionary policy could also be the impetus to turn market emotion and psychology.
I was just at the Markov Processes International site, and give you credit for being able to deduce such things pertaining to a fund's probable sector holdings.
These dynamic modeling styles of analysis by data mining return streams, performing regression analysis, apparently can tell not only what sectors a fund's allocation is, but also if a hedge fund has strayed from its stated goals and objectives and is currently in much trouble!
I have started looking deeper into the Focus Fund's Sharpe ratio, and his beta and do not see any disparity that raises alarm as compared with other fund managers of this type risk in present recessionary period.
His Alpha has always been very good.
However, the low Treynor ratio of 2.14 seems poor as a ranking criteria.
Decades ago I started a masters degree in Research Measurement and Evaluation in Connecticut but only got halfway through it, so you have my respect and admiration.
Keep up your succinct and thoughtful articles.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109797-mcdonald-s-a-billion-sold-but-what-about-2009?source=feed#comment-325163 325163 Future sales stability and brand loyalty.
In 2002-3 when they were building too much and stores were dirty and lines too long, they regrouped. I think their Paul Newman's coffee has bitten into Starbucks share of the morning crowd which must have hurt already plunging sales numbers via the sub prime crisis and resultant job losses in the key states of Nevada, Ca. and Fla.
I grind my own beans every morning.
It took eons for Starbucks to figure out people don't want to wait too long while the patron in front of them glosses over the jazzed up treats behind the glass.
As always, good post. ]]> Tue, 09 Dec 2008 22:17:09 -0500 Future sales stability and brand loyalty.
In 2002-3 when they were building too much and stores were dirty and lines too long, they regrouped. I think their Paul Newman's coffee has bitten into Starbucks share of the morning crowd which must have hurt already plunging sales numbers via the sub prime crisis and resultant job losses in the key states of Nevada, Ca. and Fla.
I grind my own beans every morning.
It took eons for Starbucks to figure out people don't want to wait too long while the patron in front of them glosses over the jazzed up treats behind the glass.
As always, good post. ]]>