keithpiccirillo

McDonald's: A Billion Sold, but What about 2009?

The "Golden arches" have that classic moat to protect their best of breed status. I never owned it other than in a fund, but feel a bit better with this stock than one of the tobacco or vice stocks. It is disappointing that they do have the kids brainwashed though . When their clown mascot is more recognizable than any political leader to a 5 year old what does that translate to?
Future sales stability and brand loyalty.
In 2002-3 when they were building too much and stores were dirty and lines too long, they regrouped. I think their Paul Newman's coffee has bitten into Starbucks share of the morning crowd which must have hurt already plunging sales numbers via the sub prime crisis and resultant job losses in the key states of Nevada, Ca. and Fla.
I grind my own beans every morning.
It took eons for Starbucks to figure out people don't want to wait too long while the patron in front of them glosses over the jazzed up treats behind the glass.
As always, good post.

The Mini Ride of the Phoenix

Dr. Hui,
Thanks for the article about The Phoenix Effect, it is a term I rarely hear, and seldom see.
Perhaps the best way the individual investor could reap these benefits would be to make an initial entry, or a switch into an existing no load small cap mutual fund with an initial entry and then monthly amounts in ever increasing amounts over a 3-4 month period.
It would be very difficult for the layman to perform so much fundamental analysis and even if one could, the metrics in our current environment with so many stain glassed windows would make these on-the- brink" businesses masquerading as stocks, nearly indiscernible from each other. As TraderMark has pointed out, they mimic each other like twins.
Timing rarely works, but if the BankIndex (KBX) , Vix, Libor rates, housing rate hope, and infrastructure spending are all in improving and accelerating modes, perhaps this is how to catch the Phoenix effect from the recent market lows.
Most of us have so much committed and re-committed at a loss, perhaps the re-test entry point needs to be 7500 Dow, and 750 S & P.
I squinted, and missed the infrastructure moves of Nov. 10 when the engineering firms like JEC, FWLT, FLR and their brethren rose like a beaming sun facing east.
My triggers are now daily readied for that next big drop when it comes.
I cannot gauge the sector or countrie(s) I believe will likely lead us out of this. One would think it would be the money centers but this is not certain with so much government involvement.
I tend to believe owning emerging markets, and Asian stocks would be the most rewarding strategies in the next quarter or two.
As Roubini has said, we are a nation of first consumers and first debtors, but will now have to become a nation of last consumers and last resort debtors, savers, and producers of something sustainable.
It saddens me to see how we demanded so many short lived disposable products from world markets, that ended in recycling centers, or worse, landfills.
The supply/demand shift paradigm is being made to the BRIC countries as the world will become more realigned with economies of scale and more global "evenness".

A Back of the Envelope Look at Infrastructure

And why wouldn't FLR & JEC be the same?
Same industry, betas of 1.6 and 1.5.
27% ROE for FLR & 20% for JEC.
One size fits all. I too am looking for a tailor made suit in an "off the rack" kind of stock market world.
I held JEC from May through July and felt like Jack get fleeced at the well tumbling down that mountain ever after.
These things have popped, and if we get a retest therew may only be a 1 day chance to get in again near that Nov. 20 low.
I would pick the one with Chinese contract exposure as they are at least able to pay the bill.

Rolling the Dice at the Real Estate Casino

You did real well Mark, the satire of the last paragraph perhaps a bit too overstated.
Time to plan my SRS entry point for tomorrow, gotta go.

Microsoft: Four-Stay Buy, But on a Dip

Thanks.
I have been buying shares to add to my position.
My buy trigger has been set for $20.65, the lower part of its recent range.
I don't think it will get filled until we retest, which is fine.
This is not a stock I think will be a future winner based on past 10 years.
Having said that, one would think that they could press their advantage with their large cash position to create better marketing economies of scale.

Fossil Fuels vs. Green Energy: What's a Better Investment?

Under OBama and "Rahmbo" Emanuel, an austere plan with plenty of gratification deferral to go around will be the norm. There is no other way.
What's a better investment? Probably stay away from the major oil companies in 2010, as they will have to share some of their windfall profit taxes in a year or so. Nat gas players like DVN probably positioned better, as I believe some part of a Picken's type plan will be implemented, despite Prop 10 rejection in California.
I have traded GEX and own Vestas shares, though short term there is no logic behind any of the alternative energy stocks. We keep waiting for the deleveraging to slow enough for the next sector leader to emerge, but the moving averages all keep saying we go lower.
OBama will impose a plan that starts infrastructure repair (roads, bridges, etc.) as it adds to employment rolls. State and local governments will need financial sector to gain access to financing, but payroll taxes have become slack. Is this not why our banks are being beefed up?
Big 3 will be revamped to look totally unlike present conditon. Google CEO Schmidt fed president elect some good starter ideas, to retrain midwest auto workers in energy conservation jobs. Our auto industry should get just enough money to "buyout" displaced workers.
Propelling our vehicles will take on totally new methods that have not even been fine tuned enough for industry analysts to agree upon let alone be made cost effective and long lived.
There is talk of a high speed rail system, very forward thinking, but my guess this will be more for moving of bulk materials as opposed to passenger transport.
Pelosi and Reid should not tug on the shirt sleeve of OBama, as it is already becoming frayed from so many requests. Emanuel will keep all of them in line.
Once we can get the financial crisis neutralized things will get better. Today China announced it is going to "stay home" with it's own infrastructure build, as they realize we do not have the national mindset to keep up our wasteful purchasing habits for the natural resources that end up being recycled or buried in landfills.
Prior to the Olympics, China realized it was no longer going to be able to keep up the old revenue stream via our demand side.
I just wonder if we can still go to the well for monies from them when we show them our plan next week.

Johnson & Johnson: Still Adding to My Position

DL4,
Thanks for the prompt insight.

Johnson & Johnson: Still Adding to My Position

Thanks for the research article.
Any comments about the Weinstein piece here that believes historically JNJ is trading at a premium to its peers and is not worth the "sum of its parts"?
I have JNJ as a core position and have bought at 66 67 64 and 60.
To this date it has been a comfortable level to hide, but for how much longer?
At 2.8% exposure you have nothing to fear.

Chesapeake Bites McLendon

I had CHK going up along with PBR and got out near the top.
Bad news is I rode DVN down almost as much.
Nattie has been having problems recently, demand destruction, contrarian television ads of Pickens & Aubrey, etc.
Kenneth Heebner's of CGM Focus recently remarked CHK had been one of his holdings.
CHK is up 20% today, with a 29.9% short ration-so clearly that boat sailed late last week. A pullback to attractive levels may be in the pipe, but I would certainly establish a position well before we elect the next president before it regains its mojo.
Good post as always.

Sugar Futures Drop; Fundamental Picture Currently Ignored

I don't know about CZZ any more.
Trading this feel good stock has both made money and lost money for me.
No profits. Dropping energy prices. Too many other issues with much less risk and much more stable prospects. It is always enjoyable to watch though.

3 Pharmas Worth A Long Look

JNJ finally succumbed and fell almost 7.5% today.
Having JNJ as a core position has come in handy. The band-aids are still being applied to heal my wounds.
Wouldn't be surprised to see JNJ acquire a weaker player in this environment. Thanks.

Where to Look for Ideas in This Market

The longest journey starts with the first step.
If you rely on analyst recommendations such as Standard & Poors, you will surely incur the latter as bank stocks have been strong buys for quite some time in their universe.

Be Like Buffett: Get Off the Roller Coaster

Y.I. - looks right to me. GE has more downside until they can clean up their financial house. They do have some wonderful divisions.
As far as the Ted Williams analogy goes, a good pitcher will only give you one good pitch to hit in each at bat, and it will in all likelihood be on a corner or in a zone. You don't get a "fat pitch so your average will go down.
That's what bear markets, and this frenetic current state are doing to all who play.

Five Energy Companies That Spell Opportunity

"Long term investors."
"Sadly banks/financials will have to lead us out of this mess. Frozen markets require a blow torch which they have just been given.
Sadly green and renewables are less viable with low oil/gas prices.
I had DVN and was in and out riding that magic carpet 1/3 way up, got out and rode it 1/3 of the way down.
China has slowed because we aren't buying.
They are in my funds and that is sufficient at present.
That group can wait a bit more.

Five Energy Companies That Spell Opportunity

You are kidding right?