keithpiccirillo

Heebner Turns Really Bullish on Market

Thanks for revisiting Mr. Heebner, just as you said you would.
As for Mr Heebner's belief in a cyclical market recovery, apparently he thinks stocks will recover as falling prices coupled will falling incomes will force a reduction in consumption with resulting equilibrium through an increase in aggregate demand (government infrastructure spending).
This will be implemented when and if the government interventions into the money centers and credit availability to those worthy reoccurs.
America will have to become a nation much better at saving to help mitigate our trade imbalance.
The late bear/early bull scenario that he envisions may be rooted not in a cyclical market recovery but an economic fluctuation model wherein when money supply and liquidity become sufficient worldwide with low interest rates.
The resultant improved stock market cycle could then occur.
I keep looking to the Baltic Dry Index, China and dry goods and iron ore as a signal that conditions have improved and change is imminent.
Perhaps Mr. Heebner also believes in political business cycle strength, wherein a charismatic new administration with its expansionary policy could also be the impetus to turn market emotion and psychology.
I was just at the Markov Processes International site, and give you credit for being able to deduce such things pertaining to a fund's probable sector holdings.
These dynamic modeling styles of analysis by data mining return streams, performing regression analysis, apparently can tell not only what sectors a fund's allocation is, but also if a hedge fund has strayed from its stated goals and objectives and is currently in much trouble!
I have started looking deeper into the Focus Fund's Sharpe ratio, and his beta and do not see any disparity that raises alarm as compared with other fund managers of this type risk in present recessionary period.
His Alpha has always been very good.
However, the low Treynor ratio of 2.14 seems poor as a ranking criteria.
Decades ago I started a masters degree in Research Measurement and Evaluation in Connecticut but only got halfway through it, so you have my respect and admiration.
Keep up your succinct and thoughtful articles.

Heebner Pukes His Positions

20 years investing with Heebner @ +20% year average. He just came on CNBC this morning with his newly positioned 30% portfolio in financials comment. Now he's positioned properly - just stayed too long in oil & commodities.
Mr. Hui, how do you discount the 400% portfolio limitations? As of 4:00 or so last night, feds actions caused many pros to head towards financials - in the weeks ahead will this tell who got there first?