TinyTim

Li-ion Battery Technologies: Understanding Their Development Path

John-
Thanks for the running commentary. Here's some quotes from your comments where we disagree.

"For the next few years, micro and mild hybrids that don't do a whole lot more than provide start-stop fuel savings and a little power boost will likely be the rule. For those advances the industry will rely on advanced lead-acid products from existing suppliers. "

The industry is using non-lead batteries for these apps now. I realize you are relying on the F&S demand projections and regulatory mandates and foresee a supply squeeze. There's too many substitute technologies to make a clear call that advanced lead will dominate in the short run.


"Building a better lead-acid battery for start-stop hybrid applications is an easy job. Redesigning the entire electrical system of every car on the road to accommodate new and largely untested battery systems is not. The continuity race clearly goes to lead-acid."

Any hybrid is a major design and engineering challenge for auto manufacturers, which is why they aren't bothering with anything but full hybrids. Once you've designed a hybrid drive train, any batteries will drop in. Electrons are electrons.


"OEM auto manufacturers will voluntarily cut their production or the EU and the US are going to abandon their C02 emission rules and CAFE standards, there is only one possible market result. "

I believe the short term market result will be advanced ICE and smaller engines. Non-lead hybrids will fill a niche in smaller quantities commensurate with battery supply and higher cost.

We will have to wait & see how this plays out.
I wouldn't bet on this photo finish.

Li-ion Battery Technologies: Understanding Their Development Path

John-
Thanks for another energy intensive article with lots of good info, comments and links.
One has to wonder about a govt report that never got published. They obviously spent some time on it & it probably eventually will see the light of day as Don mentions.
On the other hand, I read it twice and a lot of it seems either obvious, or like socialism, or like a few kids who want to start their own Manhattan Project. Reagon & my father both warned about when the govt shows up and says they want to help.

Bottom line is there's a lot of work to be done to get economically feasible batteries for car power, at any level or scale.

Based on the spectrum of battery technologies and applications, I agree with you that there's a niche for everyone and the niche is constantly changing as the situation evolves.

For applications like Infocast's Storage Week, you can't beat VRLA. I've been in a lot of server farms, telecom installations and nukes and they all have large (car and bus sized) VRLA batteries. These stationary applications include storage for alternative energy generation. I don't know who makes them, but I think the growth potential, economics and timing are there.

When it comes to transportation like hybrid trains and storage energy for boats / ships, I think the economics are still in favor of lead. It would be interesting to know why GE is looking for something different for their locomotives. Plus there are specialized applications like yachts where the charge rate has the biggest impact (tnx ART) because generation cost is so high.

For cars & trucks, energy density is the major factor. Less so in todays hybrids, but primary for anything with a plug. If you look at the ThunderSky webpage milestones, they're building a lithium factory a year. And they have plenty of competition in their own backyard. The idea that once China's internal demand catches up they will ignore our market is absurd. Especially in the unlikely event that we're a captive audience and they're sole source. I really don't buy the national security argument either, unless the Taliban gets into the biz. China has nuclear weapons, what are we going to do? So I really don't think lead has a future in cars, short or long term.

Anyway, considering investment scenarios for pure play advanced technology battery companies at this point is like playing Russian roulette if you're basing demand on the car market. There's too many variables and unknowns. The established and growing demand for lead batteries may not be glamorous, but at least it's less risky.

Li-ion Battery Technologies: Understanding Their Development Path

"sent me an unpublished "pre-decisional draft" of a DOE report titled National Battery Collaborative (NBC) Roadmap, December 9, 2009"

I presume it won't be published for 6 mos & 2 days

Smart Grid's Enabler - Alternative Energy Storage

Don't want to pop this smart grid bubble. But breakdown the DOE nameplate capacity of 1.09MMW into three parts. About 210MW are baseload generation (always online), 372MW are online in less than 24hrs, 512MW are online in 30 minutes.

So tell me again, what's the advantage of energy storage?
Why store it when you can turn it off in the first place? Much of the quick start generation is relatively low capital, but high fuel cost jet turbine powered generators.

I would like to see more load leveling to improve the ROI of expensive steam plants. Ideally, this would be done recharging electric cars during off peak night hours.

Also, why isn't pumped storage regen double counting capacity?