Brian Pursley

What's Behind the Slide in Oil and Commodities?

Kunst, in order to increase production it is necessary to drill. Hydrocarbon drilling is currently illegal on over 10,000 miles of US coastline.

What's Behind the Slide in Oil and Commodities?

Supply and demand.

The supply is infinite: oilismastery.blogspot..../

Black Gold or Yellow Gold?

To the Neo-Nazis: of course Israel is a warrior nation. What would you do if you were surrounded by millions of terrorists who want to exterminate you? Start a pink balloon store?

oilismastery.blogspot..../

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

Fitz: I actually don't disagree with your investment advice at all. I have an "undiversified" concentrated long/short portfolio, 90% in energy.

At the last Berkshire meeting Charlie said "diversification is for know nothing investors, not professionals" and went on to add that at times he's had more than 100% of his net worth in a single idea: www.cnbc.com/id/244413.../

I think you'll get your alpha owning CVX and COP.

And I also agree with most of your energy proposals (the drilling part not the raising taxes part). The problem is drilling is currently illegal on over 10,000 miles of US coastline. Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less: www.youtube.com/watch?...

The fact that hydrocarbons have an abiogenic origin in the mantle is what most people are missing and why I keep ranting: oilismastery.blogspot..../

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

Correction: 84 should read 82. Although in 2005 they thought 84 mbpd was the peak.

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

Fitz: To answer your question Fitz, yes oil exports are political and not geological because they have to do with nations and nation states and not with geology. Production is also political because people control the production rate and oil wells are capped for hoarding. Is there anyone on the planet besides short-sellers who have a vested interest in a low commodity price? Please don't say the US consumer because if the US consumer wanted lower oil prices they would legalize drilling. Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less: www.youtube.com/watch?...

Truce? Didn't know we were at war haha. Just having a friendly debate. Indeed we won't know until 5 years from now. But I can tell you this: 5 years ago oil billionaires like Boone Pickens and Matt Simmons were crying wolf over 84 mbpd. In 2004 they were crying wolf over 82 mbpd. Now they are crying wolf over 86 mbpd.

Pickens called 82 mpd the peak: peakoildebunked.blogsp...

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

Dave: Likewise long. NOV, RIG, PBR, PKX (especially if they get Daewoo Shipbuilding) obvious winners. HAL and BHI cheap compared to SLB imo.

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

All of this peak oil angst stems from not wanting to face life without a Hummer. Go ride a bike.

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

Mr. Yetiv: "Question to you: If you add up depletion rates at Ghawar, Cantarell, and all the other fields in the world over the next 7 years (ie, by 2015), what does that total depletion add up to?"

I figured you were going to tell me since you peak oil cultists know everything even though you don't trust any statistics. How should I know? I thought Saudi statistics can't be trusted. Those are only 2 fields and according to Matt Simmons Ghawar should've run out already. See here: peakoildebunked.blogsp...

Anyway, who cares about Ghawar besides Matt Simmons and the Saudi Royal Family? I know I don't: peakoildebunked.blogsp...

There are other oil fields, get over it: peakoildebunked.blogsp...

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

Fitz: Again, the supply is low due to political and not geological factors. The United States has over 10,000 miles of undrilled coastline. Peaks in oil production are caused by man not nature. But like I said I hope you're right. I hope we peak and I become a billionaire because I have my eye on a new Hummer.

FoxV: Your claim that no current technology is available to exploit Tupi is based upon willful ignorance and a lack of education.

Petrobras to Start Output at Tupi Ahead of Schedule: www.bloomberg.com/apps...

"I don't think we face any technical challenges that are insurmountable,'' said Gabrielli, 59. "We think that today the main problem is cost reduction, not availability of technology.'': www.bloomberg.com/apps...

How's that crack pipe treating you?

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

FoxV: And I suggest you familiarize yourself with Petrobras which is growing it's reserves at 6% annually. Allow me to introduce you to some new friends of mine named Barracuda, Caratingua, Tupi, Jupiter, and Carioca.

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

We'll see $200 oil because the dollar is on it's way to zero.

According to the American Geological Institute the high commodity price of oil is half explained by the weak dollar i.e. political and not geological factors: seekingalpha.com/artic...

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

P.S. Petrobras struck more light oil in shallow waters yesterday: www.reuters.com/articl...

That makes that about their 10 billionth oil discovery this year. Peak oil?

In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea

Global production was 85.9 million bpd in February of 2008. Peak oil?

Gold Prices Can Fall, Regardless of Fundamentals

I like the fact that you are neither bullish nor bearish. To me that means you probably know what you're talking about...=)

"I think the people who are making forecasts... don't know what they're talking about. Because we really don't know." -- Peter Bernstein