Jase's Comments Jase's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/188074/comments Buffett's Financial Bets http://seekingalpha.com/article/123411-buffett-s-financial-bets?source=feed#comment-408806 408806


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Mon, 02 Mar 2009 01:54:03 -0500


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12 Reasons to Short Gold http://seekingalpha.com/article/120007-12-reasons-to-short-gold?source=feed#comment-384533 384533 Wed, 11 Feb 2009 16:16:05 -0500 This Is Just the Beginning http://seekingalpha.com/article/119199-this-is-just-the-beginning?source=feed#comment-382788 382788
You've missed my point:

1. I do hold Gold, there's a place for it in my portfolio. I just don't worship it. It's a dead store of wealth as it generates nothing for me;

2. Brown was right in 2001, the US Dollar Index had topped out that year and it was an excellent year to dump gold. You mention that he dumped it at $250/oz. What you fail to mention is that the $250 referred to "2001 US Dollars", the buying power of a US Dollar in 2001 was over 40% more than is today. It's incorrect to compare gold's $1000/oz price in 2008 and think that gold appreciated by 400% since 2001. It absolutely did not. If it did, then an ounce of gold would buy 4x as much oil as it did in 2001. It does not, not even close. If the gold/oil ratio is anything to go by, oil is set to rocket and gold set to dump when viewed over the next 24 months.

As for your XLF comments, if it goes to zero, you won't have a vault to store your yellow metal, nor a functioning country. I suggest you lads sort out that problem in a hurry.

I maintain that the XLF will outperform gold, on a % basis, over the next 24 to 36 months. Gold belongs back below $500/oz, ready for the next generation of suckers.


]]>
Tue, 10 Feb 2009 15:45:58 -0500
You've missed my point:

1. I do hold Gold, there's a place for it in my portfolio. I just don't worship it. It's a dead store of wealth as it generates nothing for me;

2. Brown was right in 2001, the US Dollar Index had topped out that year and it was an excellent year to dump gold. You mention that he dumped it at $250/oz. What you fail to mention is that the $250 referred to "2001 US Dollars", the buying power of a US Dollar in 2001 was over 40% more than is today. It's incorrect to compare gold's $1000/oz price in 2008 and think that gold appreciated by 400% since 2001. It absolutely did not. If it did, then an ounce of gold would buy 4x as much oil as it did in 2001. It does not, not even close. If the gold/oil ratio is anything to go by, oil is set to rocket and gold set to dump when viewed over the next 24 months.

As for your XLF comments, if it goes to zero, you won't have a vault to store your yellow metal, nor a functioning country. I suggest you lads sort out that problem in a hurry.

I maintain that the XLF will outperform gold, on a % basis, over the next 24 to 36 months. Gold belongs back below $500/oz, ready for the next generation of suckers.


]]>
This Is Just the Beginning http://seekingalpha.com/article/119199-this-is-just-the-beginning?source=feed#comment-380501 380501
Thanks for the feedback. There are few indicators that together suggest that gold's upside is limited, the technical reason I commented on is just one such indicator. The gold/oil ratio, the US Dollar Index, interest rates, various sentiment indicators--all these paint a similar picture.

As far as I'm concerned, gold is a dead store of wealth. It doesn't interest me, save for its place as part of balanced/diversified portfolio (I hold about about 8% of my wealth in the form of bullion: 0% silver, 3% gold, 5% platinum. To me, holding gold via an ETN like GLD is missing the point entirely.)

If push comes to shove and the US dollar begins to decline substantially (personally, I believe it will eclipse 95 to 103 on the US Dollar Index before any such reversal materializes), then a balanced investor shouldn't be hurt materially by this. Holding ones wealth in a single currency is a stupid, stupid idea. 40% of my portfolio in is Canadian Dollars, about 25% in US Dollars, the balance is in a mix of Francs and Sterling (yes, Sterling--never, ever bet against the United Kingdom long term.). I'm also holding crude oil in several of these currencies as a hedge. Australian Dollars, Brazilian Real, Canadian Dollars--currencies from resource-rich nations, are a good way to protect oneself from future chaos. I consider currency losses a small price to pay for a good night's sleep. As you get older, such things matter.

I like the US Financial sector from a 5-year point of view. I like crude oil (and the solar sector, for that matter) over that same time-frame. I still really like tech and especially the digital content industries, longer term. 2009 and 2010 is the time to pick up some of these assets. You complained when they were too expensive, now they're really inexpensive. Buy something, learn technical analysis, and sit tight.

Peter makes some excellent points, but the fact of the matter is... the world isn't going to end. Let things worsen, those living life within their means (be it those with assets of 100k or 100M) shouldn't be affected in the least. If you're an entrepreneur, now is the time to build. If you have a job, now is the time to work harder for your company to improve its competitiveness globally. If you are young, now is the time to educate yourself. If you're no-so-young, enjoy yourself, you've earned it.

The cycle playing out right now is just that, a cycle. It's the logical end to the actions that were made during the past several decades. The reasons for it aren't important--they can't be changed. Focus on what you can control. Blue skies will return, they always do. Until then, go build something.


On Feb 08 10:20 PM ron_paulite wrote:

> Hi Jase
>
> Good contrarian view. Gold is in for a rough ride. I'm always
> very cautious when every pundit is saying the same thing, and now
> almost everybody, including all the Wall St investment banks, are
> saying Gold will go up -- and that's scary.
>
> Yes, I don't believe Gold has completed decoupled from the Dollar
> -- although lately that seems to be the case.
> But if the Dollar strengthens, even if Gold can still go up (as it
> has been doing so lately), its upside is limited.
> On the other hand, the Dollar weakens, Gold will go up by quite a
> bit.
>
> ]]>
Mon, 09 Feb 2009 01:12:33 -0500
Thanks for the feedback. There are few indicators that together suggest that gold's upside is limited, the technical reason I commented on is just one such indicator. The gold/oil ratio, the US Dollar Index, interest rates, various sentiment indicators--all these paint a similar picture.

As far as I'm concerned, gold is a dead store of wealth. It doesn't interest me, save for its place as part of balanced/diversified portfolio (I hold about about 8% of my wealth in the form of bullion: 0% silver, 3% gold, 5% platinum. To me, holding gold via an ETN like GLD is missing the point entirely.)

If push comes to shove and the US dollar begins to decline substantially (personally, I believe it will eclipse 95 to 103 on the US Dollar Index before any such reversal materializes), then a balanced investor shouldn't be hurt materially by this. Holding ones wealth in a single currency is a stupid, stupid idea. 40% of my portfolio in is Canadian Dollars, about 25% in US Dollars, the balance is in a mix of Francs and Sterling (yes, Sterling--never, ever bet against the United Kingdom long term.). I'm also holding crude oil in several of these currencies as a hedge. Australian Dollars, Brazilian Real, Canadian Dollars--currencies from resource-rich nations, are a good way to protect oneself from future chaos. I consider currency losses a small price to pay for a good night's sleep. As you get older, such things matter.

I like the US Financial sector from a 5-year point of view. I like crude oil (and the solar sector, for that matter) over that same time-frame. I still really like tech and especially the digital content industries, longer term. 2009 and 2010 is the time to pick up some of these assets. You complained when they were too expensive, now they're really inexpensive. Buy something, learn technical analysis, and sit tight.

Peter makes some excellent points, but the fact of the matter is... the world isn't going to end. Let things worsen, those living life within their means (be it those with assets of 100k or 100M) shouldn't be affected in the least. If you're an entrepreneur, now is the time to build. If you have a job, now is the time to work harder for your company to improve its competitiveness globally. If you are young, now is the time to educate yourself. If you're no-so-young, enjoy yourself, you've earned it.

The cycle playing out right now is just that, a cycle. It's the logical end to the actions that were made during the past several decades. The reasons for it aren't important--they can't be changed. Focus on what you can control. Blue skies will return, they always do. Until then, go build something.


On Feb 08 10:20 PM ron_paulite wrote:

> Hi Jase
>
> Good contrarian view. Gold is in for a rough ride. I'm always
> very cautious when every pundit is saying the same thing, and now
> almost everybody, including all the Wall St investment banks, are
> saying Gold will go up -- and that's scary.
>
> Yes, I don't believe Gold has completed decoupled from the Dollar
> -- although lately that seems to be the case.
> But if the Dollar strengthens, even if Gold can still go up (as it
> has been doing so lately), its upside is limited.
> On the other hand, the Dollar weakens, Gold will go up by quite a
> bit.
>
> ]]>
This Is Just the Beginning http://seekingalpha.com/article/119199-this-is-just-the-beginning?source=feed#comment-379984 379984 Sun, 08 Feb 2009 12:43:51 -0500 Is Electronic Arts a Clear Case of Institutional Manipulation? http://seekingalpha.com/article/118293-is-electronic-arts-a-clear-case-of-institutional-manipulation?source=feed#comment-375050 375050 Tue, 03 Feb 2009 22:54:18 -0500 Have We Reached an Historic Buying Opportunity? http://seekingalpha.com/article/118223-have-we-reached-an-historic-buying-opportunity?source=feed#comment-374819 374819
While we're at it, let's have a chat about 'looser' vs. 'loser':

looser: not firm, taut, or rigid
loser: you


]]>
Tue, 03 Feb 2009 16:39:21 -0500
While we're at it, let's have a chat about 'looser' vs. 'loser':

looser: not firm, taut, or rigid
loser: you


]]>
Opportunities in a High Correlation World http://seekingalpha.com/article/118177-opportunities-in-a-high-correlation-world?source=feed#comment-374811 374811
Excellent article. To what extent do large currency fluctuations contribute to this increased correlation? At the beginning of 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009, the value of US Dollar Index was at ~90, ~83, ~76, and ~81 respectively. Those are massive % swings. The run-up from its lows of 70.70 in March 2008 to its recent high of 88.46 in November of 2008 is an astounding, if not unprecedented, percentage gain. Surely this must influence your correlation results. My question is, how?]]>
Tue, 03 Feb 2009 16:32:53 -0500
Excellent article. To what extent do large currency fluctuations contribute to this increased correlation? At the beginning of 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009, the value of US Dollar Index was at ~90, ~83, ~76, and ~81 respectively. Those are massive % swings. The run-up from its lows of 70.70 in March 2008 to its recent high of 88.46 in November of 2008 is an astounding, if not unprecedented, percentage gain. Surely this must influence your correlation results. My question is, how?]]>
Microsoft Windows 7: The Tech Sector Impact http://seekingalpha.com/article/118020-microsoft-windows-7-the-tech-sector-impact?source=feed#comment-373785 373785 Mon, 02 Feb 2009 16:41:29 -0500 Banks: The Final Countdown? http://seekingalpha.com/article/115166-banks-the-final-countdown?source=feed#comment-359280 359280 Sun, 18 Jan 2009 17:06:47 -0500 Lookee Here: An IPO Filing! http://seekingalpha.com/article/112222-lookee-here-an-ipo-filing?source=feed#comment-337497 337497 Wed, 24 Dec 2008 10:26:28 -0500 Apple Drops MacWorld: Good Move, But Likely to Start Another Steve Jobs Rumor http://seekingalpha.com/article/111025-apple-drops-macworld-good-move-but-likely-to-start-another-steve-jobs-rumor?source=feed#comment-332316 332316

On Dec 17 12:16 PM brewer wrote:

> "I look forward to covering my short AAPL position at around those
> levels."
>
> Dream on.]]>
Wed, 17 Dec 2008 14:34:27 -0500

On Dec 17 12:16 PM brewer wrote:

> "I look forward to covering my short AAPL position at around those
> levels."
>
> Dream on.]]>
Apple Drops MacWorld: Good Move, But Likely to Start Another Steve Jobs Rumor http://seekingalpha.com/article/111025-apple-drops-macworld-good-move-but-likely-to-start-another-steve-jobs-rumor?source=feed#comment-331685 331685
Re. "... will go down with Thomas Edison"--that's a bit of a stretch. Taking nothing away from Jobs' ability to dream, design, think, simplify, outsmart, incessantly craft, and relentlessly persist... placing him in the same category as Edison, in my view, is a grossly inaccurate comparison. Names that perhaps ought to accompany Edison (or perhaps names that Edison ought to accompany, in no particular order) might include: Bardeen, Brattain, Shockley, Townes, Schawlow, Maiman, Tesla, Babbage, Turing, S. Christie, J. Fleming, Kemeny, Kurtz--you get the idea, this is a long list.

I acknowledge that my list is comprised of arbitrary names whose contributions vary considerably. Steve Jobs is an entrepreneur, calling him an inventor is unfair to those who truly invent. While Jobs created the first Apple computer, true elegance in computer design was first demonstrated by Jef Raskin. Jef Raskin is the real, long forgotten, creator of the Macintosh computer. Many are surprised to learn that on several occasions Jobs actually attempted to thwart the Macintosh development efforts at Apple.

Yes, Jobs is a vicious CEO and shrewd businessman, an excellent designer, and a master of aesthetics. He is, however, not an inventor.

Glad to hear that you were able to pick up Apple at $16 when it rose from the ashes. I look forward to covering my short AAPL position at around those levels.

]]>
Wed, 17 Dec 2008 03:30:18 -0500
Re. "... will go down with Thomas Edison"--that's a bit of a stretch. Taking nothing away from Jobs' ability to dream, design, think, simplify, outsmart, incessantly craft, and relentlessly persist... placing him in the same category as Edison, in my view, is a grossly inaccurate comparison. Names that perhaps ought to accompany Edison (or perhaps names that Edison ought to accompany, in no particular order) might include: Bardeen, Brattain, Shockley, Townes, Schawlow, Maiman, Tesla, Babbage, Turing, S. Christie, J. Fleming, Kemeny, Kurtz--you get the idea, this is a long list.

I acknowledge that my list is comprised of arbitrary names whose contributions vary considerably. Steve Jobs is an entrepreneur, calling him an inventor is unfair to those who truly invent. While Jobs created the first Apple computer, true elegance in computer design was first demonstrated by Jef Raskin. Jef Raskin is the real, long forgotten, creator of the Macintosh computer. Many are surprised to learn that on several occasions Jobs actually attempted to thwart the Macintosh development efforts at Apple.

Yes, Jobs is a vicious CEO and shrewd businessman, an excellent designer, and a master of aesthetics. He is, however, not an inventor.

Glad to hear that you were able to pick up Apple at $16 when it rose from the ashes. I look forward to covering my short AAPL position at around those levels.

]]>
John Hussman: The Market Is Not in Uncharted Territory http://seekingalpha.com/article/106411-john-hussman-the-market-is-not-in-uncharted-territory?source=feed#comment-309384 309384
Listen, I'm having trouble with a math problem. Can you help me prove this: "Every even integer greater than 2 can be written as the sum of two primes."

Thanks

]]>
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 18:52:19 -0500
Listen, I'm having trouble with a math problem. Can you help me prove this: "Every even integer greater than 2 can be written as the sum of two primes."

Thanks

]]>
Four Commonsense Clues to a Genuine Market Bottom http://seekingalpha.com/article/106668-four-commonsense-clues-to-a-genuine-market-bottom?source=feed#comment-309270 309270
Take a look at Jeff Rubin's (CIBC World Markets) report that attempts to provide hard evidence that each major economic downturn this century was immediately preceded by a spike in oil prices. Note that I'm not saying that *I* believe that this is the case, I'm just pointing out a potential body of evidence that argues the point counter to yours. Make up your own mind. Here's the link to the report:

research.cibcwm.com/ec...

The chart/data that I'm citing is found at the bottom of page 4.

]]>
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 16:30:53 -0500
Take a look at Jeff Rubin's (CIBC World Markets) report that attempts to provide hard evidence that each major economic downturn this century was immediately preceded by a spike in oil prices. Note that I'm not saying that *I* believe that this is the case, I'm just pointing out a potential body of evidence that argues the point counter to yours. Make up your own mind. Here's the link to the report:

research.cibcwm.com/ec...

The chart/data that I'm citing is found at the bottom of page 4.

]]>
John Hussman: The Market Is Not in Uncharted Territory http://seekingalpha.com/article/106411-john-hussman-the-market-is-not-in-uncharted-territory?source=feed#comment-308562 308562
It's difficult to respond to your post as your initial comments are "I don't know what your exact method is, but..." then the remainder of your diatribe goes on to challenge what you imagine my method to be.

What shall I comment on--the actual methods that I use or the words that you've put in my mouth?

When you elect to pelt me with comments like: "You seem to believe that making these kinds of returns is easy" and "Do you believe that you can establish cause and effect based on 8 trades?" and "I guess it must be easy for you but impossible for the rest", it suggests to me that you're having a conversation with yourself, not me.

Here's the spill:

1. The eight trades that I listed weren't the only trades that I've made this year, there were many more trades, and many, many were losers. Each losing trade, however, incurred a maximum loss of 6% on only a partial initial position size. In other words, if I intend to commit a total of $100,000 to a position, I will never lose more than $1800 plus commissions. No exceptions. I add to all successful positions using very strict guidelines and I'm not afraid of taking partial profits.

2. Yes, I do this full-time. I lost $30M earlier this year when the financing for my software company fell through (investment bank went tits up due to subprime exposure, among other things). The capital that I use to trade is all that I have left in this world--so I take trading very, very seriously.

3. I don't care about profits. All I care about is managing risk.

4. I have patience. More than 70% of my gains are realized in the last 20% of the time that I hold my positions. I'm still working at mastering the skill of sitting still; this is really, really hard. That said, I've been taking profits much more quickly during October and November. I'm sitting in a relatively high % cash right now.

5. Yes, I'm still in the market. Of the eight trades that I've mentioned, I'm still holding the BRK/B short, still holding USD against CAD, and I'm still short crude oil... there are a few others.

In your comments, you used the word "believe" several times. I don't trade what I believe. Frankly, the market doesn't give a shit what I think. I only trade what's right there in front of me, what I'm seeing occur. If a trade isn't going my way and I'm stopped out (100% of my trades have stops in place, no exceptions), all it means is that I was wrong. That's it, I was wrong. So what? I try to let it go like a bad first serve in tennis, my second serve doesn't have to be affected by my poor first serve--unless I choose to let it adversely affect me. Hopefully you get the idea.

I'm not going to comment on technical analysis here because my description of it won't make you understand it any more than you think you do now. As for being special, believe me, I'm not. I'm just interested in making some money and repaying my investors so that I can get back to my research in number theory.

Best of luck in your future trades.



On Nov 17 08:30 PM Vladimir Senkov wrote:

> Jase,
>
> Congrats on your 8 good trades and your high YTD return.
> Why do you think that any of this has something to do with TA?<br/>I
> don't know what your exact method is, but most TA methods I'm familiar
> with are an attempt at pattern recognition. Human brain is very good
> at confirmation bias. If you already believed that gold was "expensive"
> your TA would always confirm it.
> Do you believe that you can establish cause and effect based on 8
> trades? Have you closed all of them yet? My guess is no, since you
> are still in the market.
> You seem to believe that making these kinds of returns is easy.<br/>I
> guess if it's so easy you have probably already quit your day job.
>
> I guess it must be easy for you but impossible for the rest. What
> makes you so special? I know we are all special, but seriously?<br/>
>
> Good luck climbing the easy money mountain!
>
> On Nov 17 07:26 PM Jase wrote:]]>
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 01:06:19 -0500
It's difficult to respond to your post as your initial comments are "I don't know what your exact method is, but..." then the remainder of your diatribe goes on to challenge what you imagine my method to be.

What shall I comment on--the actual methods that I use or the words that you've put in my mouth?

When you elect to pelt me with comments like: "You seem to believe that making these kinds of returns is easy" and "Do you believe that you can establish cause and effect based on 8 trades?" and "I guess it must be easy for you but impossible for the rest", it suggests to me that you're having a conversation with yourself, not me.

Here's the spill:

1. The eight trades that I listed weren't the only trades that I've made this year, there were many more trades, and many, many were losers. Each losing trade, however, incurred a maximum loss of 6% on only a partial initial position size. In other words, if I intend to commit a total of $100,000 to a position, I will never lose more than $1800 plus commissions. No exceptions. I add to all successful positions using very strict guidelines and I'm not afraid of taking partial profits.

2. Yes, I do this full-time. I lost $30M earlier this year when the financing for my software company fell through (investment bank went tits up due to subprime exposure, among other things). The capital that I use to trade is all that I have left in this world--so I take trading very, very seriously.

3. I don't care about profits. All I care about is managing risk.

4. I have patience. More than 70% of my gains are realized in the last 20% of the time that I hold my positions. I'm still working at mastering the skill of sitting still; this is really, really hard. That said, I've been taking profits much more quickly during October and November. I'm sitting in a relatively high % cash right now.

5. Yes, I'm still in the market. Of the eight trades that I've mentioned, I'm still holding the BRK/B short, still holding USD against CAD, and I'm still short crude oil... there are a few others.

In your comments, you used the word "believe" several times. I don't trade what I believe. Frankly, the market doesn't give a shit what I think. I only trade what's right there in front of me, what I'm seeing occur. If a trade isn't going my way and I'm stopped out (100% of my trades have stops in place, no exceptions), all it means is that I was wrong. That's it, I was wrong. So what? I try to let it go like a bad first serve in tennis, my second serve doesn't have to be affected by my poor first serve--unless I choose to let it adversely affect me. Hopefully you get the idea.

I'm not going to comment on technical analysis here because my description of it won't make you understand it any more than you think you do now. As for being special, believe me, I'm not. I'm just interested in making some money and repaying my investors so that I can get back to my research in number theory.

Best of luck in your future trades.



On Nov 17 08:30 PM Vladimir Senkov wrote:

> Jase,
>
> Congrats on your 8 good trades and your high YTD return.
> Why do you think that any of this has something to do with TA?<br/>I
> don't know what your exact method is, but most TA methods I'm familiar
> with are an attempt at pattern recognition. Human brain is very good
> at confirmation bias. If you already believed that gold was "expensive"
> your TA would always confirm it.
> Do you believe that you can establish cause and effect based on 8
> trades? Have you closed all of them yet? My guess is no, since you
> are still in the market.
> You seem to believe that making these kinds of returns is easy.<br/>I
> guess if it's so easy you have probably already quit your day job.
>
> I guess it must be easy for you but impossible for the rest. What
> makes you so special? I know we are all special, but seriously?<br/>
>
> Good luck climbing the easy money mountain!
>
> On Nov 17 07:26 PM Jase wrote:]]>
John Hussman: The Market Is Not in Uncharted Territory http://seekingalpha.com/article/106411-john-hussman-the-market-is-not-in-uncharted-territory?source=feed#comment-308416 308416
Your comments regarding the futility of TA are amusing. "And did any squiggle-people predict the current bear market?" Yes, many did. But most of them wouldn't bother telling you about it. Unfortunately, you still think you understand what technical analysis is by reading about it from a Wikipedia page while eating a sandwich. It takes time to learn the art behind the science; in time you'll see the charts in a completely different way. This is about as kind a message as I can proffer considering that I gain nothing by telling you this. If you must know, this year I "used the squiggles" to:

- short gold (DZZ) at $970/ounce;
- short Encana (ECA) at $92/share;
- buy SKF at $89/share (more than once);
- short Goldman (GS) at $137/share;
- short crude oil (HOD.TO) at $119/barrel;
- sell CAD against USD at parity;
- short SPY at 130.00/share (via SDS); and last but not least
- short BRK/B at $4390/share.

The list goes on. How many long-side trades do you see? I've only been doing this for 18 months and my measly initial couple of hundred grand bankroll isn't big enough to crack the billion mark yet; this and this alone is the reason that I'm writing you--I'm still in the market. My 135% year to date return, however, suits me just fine. Doubt me? Send me your postal address and I'll fedex you my trade tickets. Take this advice: keep your toilet shut before discounting a method you know absolutely nothing about.

]]>
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 19:26:55 -0500
Your comments regarding the futility of TA are amusing. "And did any squiggle-people predict the current bear market?" Yes, many did. But most of them wouldn't bother telling you about it. Unfortunately, you still think you understand what technical analysis is by reading about it from a Wikipedia page while eating a sandwich. It takes time to learn the art behind the science; in time you'll see the charts in a completely different way. This is about as kind a message as I can proffer considering that I gain nothing by telling you this. If you must know, this year I "used the squiggles" to:

- short gold (DZZ) at $970/ounce;
- short Encana (ECA) at $92/share;
- buy SKF at $89/share (more than once);
- short Goldman (GS) at $137/share;
- short crude oil (HOD.TO) at $119/barrel;
- sell CAD against USD at parity;
- short SPY at 130.00/share (via SDS); and last but not least
- short BRK/B at $4390/share.

The list goes on. How many long-side trades do you see? I've only been doing this for 18 months and my measly initial couple of hundred grand bankroll isn't big enough to crack the billion mark yet; this and this alone is the reason that I'm writing you--I'm still in the market. My 135% year to date return, however, suits me just fine. Doubt me? Send me your postal address and I'll fedex you my trade tickets. Take this advice: keep your toilet shut before discounting a method you know absolutely nothing about.

]]>
UltraShort ETFs: At a Tipping Point? http://seekingalpha.com/article/106125-ultrashort-etfs-at-a-tipping-point?source=feed#comment-306750 306750
]]>
Sat, 15 Nov 2008 13:07:45 -0500
]]>
Ban on Short Sale Ends - Hold Your Breath http://seekingalpha.com/article/99127-ban-on-short-sale-ends-hold-your-breath?source=feed#comment-277571 277571
I'm fully aware that SKF tracks the Dow Jones Financial Index. I'm also fully aware that ProShares calculates the NAV based on pricing of the underlying at 4PM EST. My point was simply that the closing price of the underlying (DJUSFN) at market close yesterday was still below the closing price back on July 14th (approx. 270 vs. 287, respectively).]]>
Thu, 09 Oct 2008 07:59:58 -0400
I'm fully aware that SKF tracks the Dow Jones Financial Index. I'm also fully aware that ProShares calculates the NAV based on pricing of the underlying at 4PM EST. My point was simply that the closing price of the underlying (DJUSFN) at market close yesterday was still below the closing price back on July 14th (approx. 270 vs. 287, respectively).]]>
IBM: Reassurance from Big Blue http://seekingalpha.com/article/99121-ibm-reassurance-from-big-blue?source=feed#comment-277515 277515
IBM is clueless. Do you really think that beyond their 1-year outlook that revenue will remain steady? Way too much exposure to emerging markets, way too optimistic an outlook. IBM should be trading below $40 if we're going to price in what's in store for them in this economy. Take a look at SAP. It's tanking. IBM is extremely overvalued. I wouldn't pay more than 5x forward for this bloated thing. Want to change my mind? Do two things for me: tell IBM to triple their dividend; and show me some earnings that don't rely so heavily on luck in the currency markets.

]]>
Thu, 09 Oct 2008 03:50:08 -0400
IBM is clueless. Do you really think that beyond their 1-year outlook that revenue will remain steady? Way too much exposure to emerging markets, way too optimistic an outlook. IBM should be trading below $40 if we're going to price in what's in store for them in this economy. Take a look at SAP. It's tanking. IBM is extremely overvalued. I wouldn't pay more than 5x forward for this bloated thing. Want to change my mind? Do two things for me: tell IBM to triple their dividend; and show me some earnings that don't rely so heavily on luck in the currency markets.

]]>
Ban on Short Sale Ends - Hold Your Breath http://seekingalpha.com/article/99127-ban-on-short-sale-ends-hold-your-breath?source=feed#comment-277512 277512
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Thu, 09 Oct 2008 03:37:17 -0400
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3 Stocks That Are Begging To Be Bought http://seekingalpha.com/article/98539-3-stocks-that-are-begging-to-be-bought?source=feed#comment-274371 274371 ]]> Sun, 05 Oct 2008 23:15:58 -0400 ]]> 36 Opportunities for the Beginning of the Bull http://seekingalpha.com/article/98564-36-opportunities-for-the-beginning-of-the-bull?source=feed#comment-274301 274301 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 21:04:01 -0400 European Banks To Consider - Barron's http://seekingalpha.com/article/98544-european-banks-to-consider-barron-s?source=feed#comment-274298 274298

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Sun, 05 Oct 2008 21:00:07 -0400

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Five Energy Companies That Spell Opportunity http://seekingalpha.com/article/98248-five-energy-companies-that-spell-opportunity?source=feed#comment-274236 274236 PTR) is astoundingly cheap right now. Their dividends have generally been over $2 per share, I don't see this changing; PTR will continue to pay to wait. Here are some more stats on PTR (pardon the formatting):

Total Returns %, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, YTD
Stock, 205.8, -1.4, 60.9 ,79.1, 29.2, -43.0
+/- Industry, 171.3, -21.5, 36.0, 58.6, 2.2, -11.0
+/- S&P 500, 179.4, -10.4, 57.9, 65.4, 25.7, -17.8

They are down over 60% from their 52-week and 5-year highs. Global recession, mild correction, major correction, upcoming depression--whatever your viewpoint is, China isn't going to stop growing. It may slow somewhat, but it will not stop. McKinsey's findings:

"By 2025, an additional 5 million buildings — including up to 50,000 skyscrapers, or the equivalent of 10 New York Cities — could be built in China, the McKinsey Global Institute, a U.S. consulting firm, predicted in a March report.

China could end up with as many as 221 cities that each have a population above 1 million, as a result of hundreds of millions of farmers moving to urban areas."

Add to this fact that a few hundred new vehicles (300M+) will be added to Chinese roads by 2015--this growth story may slow, but it WILL NOT stop. We are looking at the world's new super power jockeying for position.

Disclosure: I'm long platinum (ELR.TO, the commodity itself, and a few ETF's; catalytic converters will still be in heavy demand going forward), I'm long Petrochina for the reasons stated above, and I'm long steel and infrastructure (MT is strategically positioned to service China's growing demand).

In my view, this global market meltdown--though seemingly severe right now--will look like a hiccup when viewed in context in five years from now.

The world is not ending. We are just about to commence the biggest bull market in the history of civilization.

Bottoms are violent.

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Sun, 05 Oct 2008 18:44:58 -0400 PTR) is astoundingly cheap right now. Their dividends have generally been over $2 per share, I don't see this changing; PTR will continue to pay to wait. Here are some more stats on PTR (pardon the formatting):

Total Returns %, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, YTD
Stock, 205.8, -1.4, 60.9 ,79.1, 29.2, -43.0
+/- Industry, 171.3, -21.5, 36.0, 58.6, 2.2, -11.0
+/- S&P 500, 179.4, -10.4, 57.9, 65.4, 25.7, -17.8

They are down over 60% from their 52-week and 5-year highs. Global recession, mild correction, major correction, upcoming depression--whatever your viewpoint is, China isn't going to stop growing. It may slow somewhat, but it will not stop. McKinsey's findings:

"By 2025, an additional 5 million buildings — including up to 50,000 skyscrapers, or the equivalent of 10 New York Cities — could be built in China, the McKinsey Global Institute, a U.S. consulting firm, predicted in a March report.

China could end up with as many as 221 cities that each have a population above 1 million, as a result of hundreds of millions of farmers moving to urban areas."

Add to this fact that a few hundred new vehicles (300M+) will be added to Chinese roads by 2015--this growth story may slow, but it WILL NOT stop. We are looking at the world's new super power jockeying for position.

Disclosure: I'm long platinum (ELR.TO, the commodity itself, and a few ETF's; catalytic converters will still be in heavy demand going forward), I'm long Petrochina for the reasons stated above, and I'm long steel and infrastructure (MT is strategically positioned to service China's growing demand).

In my view, this global market meltdown--though seemingly severe right now--will look like a hiccup when viewed in context in five years from now.

The world is not ending. We are just about to commence the biggest bull market in the history of civilization.

Bottoms are violent.

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On WaMu's Birthday, JPMorgan Takes the Cake http://seekingalpha.com/article/97495-on-wamu-s-birthday-jpmorgan-takes-the-cake?source=feed#comment-265972 265972
I applaud JP Morgan's patience and opportunistic (if not predatory) actions. Clever bastards. Good for them. And I won't shed a tear for WaMu's shareholders (don't talk to me about post-bankruptcy pain, I was a shareholder of BRLC and IMBD; both went tits up earlier this year but I was absolutely aware of the risks involved).

I'm certain of one thing, when all this nonsense settles down (weeks, months, years from now), those that are left standing will be stronger. While it may not be apparent now, I'm of the opinion that that benefits us all.

If you think my comments are crass, I recommend that you skip work tomorrow, arm yourself with a bowl of ice cream, and sit down cross-legged in front of your TV and take in a few hours of old-school nature shows. Kenya, lions, impalas, African plains, all that.

Pay close attention: weak things die.

Happy Birthday WaMu.
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Fri, 26 Sep 2008 11:26:09 -0400
I applaud JP Morgan's patience and opportunistic (if not predatory) actions. Clever bastards. Good for them. And I won't shed a tear for WaMu's shareholders (don't talk to me about post-bankruptcy pain, I was a shareholder of BRLC and IMBD; both went tits up earlier this year but I was absolutely aware of the risks involved).

I'm certain of one thing, when all this nonsense settles down (weeks, months, years from now), those that are left standing will be stronger. While it may not be apparent now, I'm of the opinion that that benefits us all.

If you think my comments are crass, I recommend that you skip work tomorrow, arm yourself with a bowl of ice cream, and sit down cross-legged in front of your TV and take in a few hours of old-school nature shows. Kenya, lions, impalas, African plains, all that.

Pay close attention: weak things die.

Happy Birthday WaMu.
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Oppose the Treasury's Bailout Plan http://seekingalpha.com/article/96491-oppose-the-treasury-s-bailout-plan?source=feed#comment-260838 260838
Despite his uncle-that-never-seems... appearances, Ben Bernanke is brilliant. Really. I got fantastically liquored up once and elected to read:

"Long-Term Commitments, Dynamic Optimization, and the Business Cycle by Beb Shalom Bernanke, MIT 1979"

This is Ben's doctoral thesis. I kid you not--he's a smart, smart lad. But alas, Mighty Ben of the Academic Jungle, there are grander rules at play at all times--rules that, in time, will make a violent mockery of your bailout efforts. Long term stochastic processes get very, very angry if they are tampered with.

I'm not American...I'm Canadian. I beg of you, for your sake, for my sake, for the sake of the world: do not, under any circumstances, allow this bill to pass in Congress. You're about to distribute into public coffers the assets that the private sector itself was unwilling to buy.

This should frighten you to your core.

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Sun, 21 Sep 2008 15:50:20 -0400
Despite his uncle-that-never-seems... appearances, Ben Bernanke is brilliant. Really. I got fantastically liquored up once and elected to read:

"Long-Term Commitments, Dynamic Optimization, and the Business Cycle by Beb Shalom Bernanke, MIT 1979"

This is Ben's doctoral thesis. I kid you not--he's a smart, smart lad. But alas, Mighty Ben of the Academic Jungle, there are grander rules at play at all times--rules that, in time, will make a violent mockery of your bailout efforts. Long term stochastic processes get very, very angry if they are tampered with.

I'm not American...I'm Canadian. I beg of you, for your sake, for my sake, for the sake of the world: do not, under any circumstances, allow this bill to pass in Congress. You're about to distribute into public coffers the assets that the private sector itself was unwilling to buy.

This should frighten you to your core.

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The Artificial Inflation of Stock Prices, Due to the Short Selling Ban http://seekingalpha.com/article/96400-the-artificial-inflation-of-stock-prices-due-to-the-short-selling-ban?source=feed#comment-260464 260464
After October 2nd this thing will start a volatile and bumpy journey onwards and upwards and eventually break $300. ]]>
Sun, 21 Sep 2008 03:32:25 -0400
After October 2nd this thing will start a volatile and bumpy journey onwards and upwards and eventually break $300. ]]>
There's Only So Much That Goldman Can Do http://seekingalpha.com/article/96112-there-s-only-so-much-that-goldman-can-do?source=feed#comment-258250 258250
The context of my sentiment was directed at the fact that if you look at the laundry list of IPO's, what sense does it make to kill the beast itself? "You can shear a sheep many times, but..."

I'd be delighted to send you a t-shirt silk-screened with my pre-market short order ticket for GS at 138.00; believe me, I remain entirely unemotional.

You can't play tennis if you kill the company that produces the tennis balls.

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Thu, 18 Sep 2008 14:26:22 -0400
The context of my sentiment was directed at the fact that if you look at the laundry list of IPO's, what sense does it make to kill the beast itself? "You can shear a sheep many times, but..."

I'd be delighted to send you a t-shirt silk-screened with my pre-market short order ticket for GS at 138.00; believe me, I remain entirely unemotional.

You can't play tennis if you kill the company that produces the tennis balls.

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There's Only So Much That Goldman Can Do http://seekingalpha.com/article/96112-there-s-only-so-much-that-goldman-can-do?source=feed#comment-258037 258037
1-800-Flowers.com Inc//AFC Enterprises//ANDA Networks Inc////Acme Packet Inc//Active Power Inc//Active Software Inc//Actuate Software Corp//Advertising.com Inc////AeroVironment Inc//Agency.com Ltd//Alaska Commun Sys Grp Inc//Allied Riser Communications Co//Allied World Assur Co Hldgs//Allscripts Inc//Amscan Holdings Inc////Anteon International Corp//Anthem Inc//Archipelago Holdings Inc//ArrowPoint Communications Inc//Asbury Automotive Group Inc//Ashford.Com Inc//Aurora Foods Inc//Axcelis Technologies(Eaton)//B... Escentuals Inc//Barnesandnoble.co... Inc//Bill Barrett Corp//Blue Martini Software Inc//Bluelinx Holdings Inc//Bucyrus International Inc//CP&P Inc/////Cabot Microelectronics Corp//Calico Commerce Inc//Calumet Specialty Products//Capital Maritime & Trading///Capstone Turbine Corp//Carters Inc//Charter Communications Inc//ChemConnect Inc////Citadel Broadcasting Corp//Classic Communications Inc//CoSine Communications Inc//Coach Inc//Cobalt Networks Inc//College Park Communities Trust////Columbia Sportswear Co//Commerx Inc///Convergent Communications Inc//Convio Inc////Corio Inc//Crystal Decisions Inc/////Cytokinetics Inc//DJ Orthopedics Inc//Directed Electronics Inc//Dorel Industries Inc///DoubleClick Inc//E-Loan Inc//E-Tek Dynamics Inc//EBay Inc//EToys Inc//EXE Technologies Inc////Edocs Inc////Education Management Corp////El Paso Energy Management LLC///Elmos Semiconductor AG///Enbridge Energy Management LLC//Encore Acquisition Co//Engage Technologies Inc//Entrust Technologies Inc//Equinix Inc//Esprit Europe AG///Evolving Systems Inc//Exelixis Inc//Exodus Communications Inc//First Marblehead Corp//Fitness Holdings Inc///Focus Media Holding Ltd//Furniture.com Inc////GTx Inc//Galyan's Trading Co Inc//Garage.com Inc///GeoCities//Glass... Technologies Inc////Glu Mobile Inc//Golden State Vintners Inc//Goldman Sachs Group Inc//Goldman Sachs Group LP////Greenhill & Co Inc//HOB Entertainment Inc////Heller Financial Inc//Hewitt Associates LLC//Holly Energy Partners LP//Hornbeck Offshore Services Inc//Hornbeck-Leevac Marine Svcs////Hugoton Royalty Trust//Hutchison Telecommun Intl Ltd//IAsia Works Inc//ISS Group Inc//IVillage Inc//IXOS Software AG//Icon PLC//Idealab////Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc//Illumina Inc//Inet Technologies Inc//Infinera Corp//Inforte Corp//Initiate Systems Inc////Inktomi Corp//InsWeb Corp//Internet Initiative Japan Inc//Intira Corp////Ipass Inc/////Julius Baer Americas Inc////Juniper Networks Inc//Kana Communications Inc//Kinder Morgan Inc////Kinder Morgan Mgmt LLC////Las Vegas Sands Corp//Lazard Ltd//LeMaitre Vascular Inc//LeadersOnline Inc////Leadis Technology Inc//Liberty Lane Acquisition Corp///Limelight Networks Inc//LookSmart Ltd//Lydian Trust Co///MONY Group Inc//Marvell Technology Group Ltd//MatrixOne Inc//Maxygen Inc//Medibuy.Com Inc////Mercata Inc///Metals USA Holdings Corp////Metropark USA Inc////Microtune Inc//Mobius Management Systems Inc//Monolithic Power Systems Inc//Monsanto Co//Move.Com Inc (Cendant Corp)///Net2000 Communications Inc//NetScreen Technologies Inc//Netcom Systems Inc///Network Plus Corp//Netzero Inc//Neuberger Berman Inc////Newpage Group Inc///Nextel International Inc//Nextel Partners Inc//Niku Corp//Noosh Inc///NorthPoint Communications Grp//Novirio Pharmaceuticals Inc///Nuance Communications Inc//ONI Systems Corp//Ocean Energy Inc//Ocean Energy Royalty Trust///OpNext Inc//OptionsXpress Holdings Inc//Orbitz Inc//Organic Inc//Orion Power Holdings Inc//PYA/Monarch Inc///Packaging Corp of America//Palm Inc//PaperExchange.com Inc/////PcOrder.com//P... Exploration & Prod////PlanetRx.com Inc//Plug Power Inc//Plumtree Software Inc//Portal Software Inc//Principal Financial Group Inc//Prudential Financial Inc//Red Hat Inc//Reliant Pharmaceuticals Inc/////Reliant Resources Inc//Renovis Inc//Resonate Inc//Restoration Hardware Inc//Rivals.com Inc////Riverbed Technology Inc//Saba Software Inc//School Specialty Inc//Seminis Inc//Shamrock Logistics LP//Shanda Interactive Ent Ltd//Shopping com Ltd//SkyStream Networks Inc////Snowball.com Inc//Solarfun Power Hldgs Ltd//Sonic Innovations Inc//Sonus Networks Inc//Sparkling Spring Water///StanCorp Financial Group Inc//StarMedia Network Inc//Steelcase Inc//Stereotaxis Inc//Storagenetworks Inc//Strategic Hotel Capital Inc//Strategix Solutions Inc////Sun Apparel Inc////Synchronoss Technologies Inc//TC Pipelines LP//TIBCO Software Inc//TRX Inc/////Tality Corp///Telenor ASA//Telergy Inc////TenFold Corp//Texas Genco Inc////Texas Permian Royalty Trust//TheStreet.com Inc//Timberland Growth Corporation///Times Company Digital///TradeOut.com Inc////Tritel Inc//Turner Investments Inc//Turnstone Systems Inc//Under Armour Inc//United Pan-Europe Comm NV//Universal Access Inc//ValueClick Inc//Verigy Ltd//Viant Corp//Viasystems Group Inc/////Virtual Radiologic Corp//VistaPrint Ltd//Visual Networks//Volterra Semiconductor Corp//WP Stewart & Co Ltd//Wavesplitter Technologies Inc///WebEx Communications Inc]]>
Thu, 18 Sep 2008 11:52:01 -0400
1-800-Flowers.com Inc//AFC Enterprises//ANDA Networks Inc////Acme Packet Inc//Active Power Inc//Active Software Inc//Actuate Software Corp//Advertising.com Inc////AeroVironment Inc//Agency.com Ltd//Alaska Commun Sys Grp Inc//Allied Riser Communications Co//Allied World Assur Co Hldgs//Allscripts Inc//Amscan Holdings Inc////Anteon International Corp//Anthem Inc//Archipelago Holdings Inc//ArrowPoint Communications Inc//Asbury Automotive Group Inc//Ashford.Com Inc//Aurora Foods Inc//Axcelis Technologies(Eaton)//B... Escentuals Inc//Barnesandnoble.co... Inc//Bill Barrett Corp//Blue Martini Software Inc//Bluelinx Holdings Inc//Bucyrus International Inc//CP&P Inc/////Cabot Microelectronics Corp//Calico Commerce Inc//Calumet Specialty Products//Capital Maritime & Trading///Capstone Turbine Corp//Carters Inc//Charter Communications Inc//ChemConnect Inc////Citadel Broadcasting Corp//Classic Communications Inc//CoSine Communications Inc//Coach Inc//Cobalt Networks Inc//College Park Communities Trust////Columbia Sportswear Co//Commerx Inc///Convergent Communications Inc//Convio Inc////Corio Inc//Crystal Decisions Inc/////Cytokinetics Inc//DJ Orthopedics Inc//Directed Electronics Inc//Dorel Industries Inc///DoubleClick Inc//E-Loan Inc//E-Tek Dynamics Inc//EBay Inc//EToys Inc//EXE Technologies Inc////Edocs Inc////Education Management Corp////El Paso Energy Management LLC///Elmos Semiconductor AG///Enbridge Energy Management LLC//Encore Acquisition Co//Engage Technologies Inc//Entrust Technologies Inc//Equinix Inc//Esprit Europe AG///Evolving Systems Inc//Exelixis Inc//Exodus Communications Inc//First Marblehead Corp//Fitness Holdings Inc///Focus Media Holding Ltd//Furniture.com Inc////GTx Inc//Galyan's Trading Co Inc//Garage.com Inc///GeoCities//Glass... Technologies Inc////Glu Mobile Inc//Golden State Vintners Inc//Goldman Sachs Group Inc//Goldman Sachs Group LP////Greenhill & Co Inc//HOB Entertainment Inc////Heller Financial Inc//Hewitt Associates LLC//Holly Energy Partners LP//Hornbeck Offshore Services Inc//Hornbeck-Leevac Marine Svcs////Hugoton Royalty Trust//Hutchison Telecommun Intl Ltd//IAsia Works Inc//ISS Group Inc//IVillage Inc//IXOS Software AG//Icon PLC//Idealab////Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc//Illumina Inc//Inet Technologies Inc//Infinera Corp//Inforte Corp//Initiate Systems Inc////Inktomi Corp//InsWeb Corp//Internet Initiative Japan Inc//Intira Corp////Ipass Inc/////Julius Baer Americas Inc////Juniper Networks Inc//Kana Communications Inc//Kinder Morgan Inc////Kinder Morgan Mgmt LLC////Las Vegas Sands Corp//Lazard Ltd//LeMaitre Vascular Inc//LeadersOnline Inc////Leadis Technology Inc//Liberty Lane Acquisition Corp///Limelight Networks Inc//LookSmart Ltd//Lydian Trust Co///MONY Group Inc//Marvell Technology Group Ltd//MatrixOne Inc//Maxygen Inc//Medibuy.Com Inc////Mercata Inc///Metals USA Holdings Corp////Metropark USA Inc////Microtune Inc//Mobius Management Systems Inc//Monolithic Power Systems Inc//Monsanto Co//Move.Com Inc (Cendant Corp)///Net2000 Communications Inc//NetScreen Technologies Inc//Netcom Systems Inc///Network Plus Corp//Netzero Inc//Neuberger Berman Inc////Newpage Group Inc///Nextel International Inc//Nextel Partners Inc//Niku Corp//Noosh Inc///NorthPoint Communications Grp//Novirio Pharmaceuticals Inc///Nuance Communications Inc//ONI Systems Corp//Ocean Energy Inc//Ocean Energy Royalty Trust///OpNext Inc//OptionsXpress Holdings Inc//Orbitz Inc//Organic Inc//Orion Power Holdings Inc//PYA/Monarch Inc///Packaging Corp of America//Palm Inc//PaperExchange.com Inc/////PcOrder.com//P... Exploration & Prod////PlanetRx.com Inc//Plug Power Inc//Plumtree Software Inc//Portal Software Inc//Principal Financial Group Inc//Prudential Financial Inc//Red Hat Inc//Reliant Pharmaceuticals Inc/////Reliant Resources Inc//Renovis Inc//Resonate Inc//Restoration Hardware Inc//Rivals.com Inc////Riverbed Technology Inc//Saba Software Inc//School Specialty Inc//Seminis Inc//Shamrock Logistics LP//Shanda Interactive Ent Ltd//Shopping com Ltd//SkyStream Networks Inc////Snowball.com Inc//Solarfun Power Hldgs Ltd//Sonic Innovations Inc//Sonus Networks Inc//Sparkling Spring Water///StanCorp Financial Group Inc//StarMedia Network Inc//Steelcase Inc//Stereotaxis Inc//Storagenetworks Inc//Strategic Hotel Capital Inc//Strategix Solutions Inc////Sun Apparel Inc////Synchronoss Technologies Inc//TC Pipelines LP//TIBCO Software Inc//TRX Inc/////Tality Corp///Telenor ASA//Telergy Inc////TenFold Corp//Texas Genco Inc////Texas Permian Royalty Trust//TheStreet.com Inc//Timberland Growth Corporation///Times Company Digital///TradeOut.com Inc////Tritel Inc//Turner Investments Inc//Turnstone Systems Inc//Under Armour Inc//United Pan-Europe Comm NV//Universal Access Inc//ValueClick Inc//Verigy Ltd//Viant Corp//Viasystems Group Inc/////Virtual Radiologic Corp//VistaPrint Ltd//Visual Networks//Volterra Semiconductor Corp//WP Stewart & Co Ltd//Wavesplitter Technologies Inc///WebEx Communications Inc]]>