Jase

Apple Drops MacWorld: Good Move, But Likely to Start Another Steve Jobs Rumor

Dream on? I began my short position at $161 back on September 8th. I've covered only a partial portion of my position (at $86/share; then added to my short again at $112). Do you have any idea of how many longs are trapped above $120 per share? You've had two failed moves to attempt to capture the old floor at $115.44. Go on, pull up a chart of AAPL. Notice the pending death cross of the 200MA over the 600MA? The pissy 50-day moving average is now just north of $100/share. Let me guess, you think the lows were put in at $79.14? You're ready to cite how iPhones sales are such and such, and the monthly revenue from iPhones contracts are going to fatten up that balance sheet, and the future is all lollipops and unicorns and rainbows blah blah. Here's a newflash, homeslice: it's all priced in--that's *why* it traded at $180 to $200 all those months ago. Do yourself a favour: sell your stock or go short. 12-times current forward is at around $60/share--I wouldn't even think about touching AAPL until those levels are reached. Wouldn't surprise me to see it trading in the high 40's or 50's at some point in 2009 on ratings/revenue downgrades. Whatever the case, good luck with your trades.


On Dec 17 12:16 PM brewer wrote:

> "I look forward to covering my short AAPL position at around those
> levels."
>
> Dream on.

Apple Drops MacWorld: Good Move, But Likely to Start Another Steve Jobs Rumor

Arbitrage Cons.,

Re. "... will go down with Thomas Edison"--that's a bit of a stretch. Taking nothing away from Jobs' ability to dream, design, think, simplify, outsmart, incessantly craft, and relentlessly persist... placing him in the same category as Edison, in my view, is a grossly inaccurate comparison. Names that perhaps ought to accompany Edison (or perhaps names that Edison ought to accompany, in no particular order) might include: Bardeen, Brattain, Shockley, Townes, Schawlow, Maiman, Tesla, Babbage, Turing, S. Christie, J. Fleming, Kemeny, Kurtz--you get the idea, this is a long list.

I acknowledge that my list is comprised of arbitrary names whose contributions vary considerably. Steve Jobs is an entrepreneur, calling him an inventor is unfair to those who truly invent. While Jobs created the first Apple computer, true elegance in computer design was first demonstrated by Jef Raskin. Jef Raskin is the real, long forgotten, creator of the Macintosh computer. Many are surprised to learn that on several occasions Jobs actually attempted to thwart the Macintosh development efforts at Apple.

Yes, Jobs is a vicious CEO and shrewd businessman, an excellent designer, and a master of aesthetics. He is, however, not an inventor.

Glad to hear that you were able to pick up Apple at $16 when it rose from the ashes. I look forward to covering my short AAPL position at around those levels.

3 Stocks That Are Begging To Be Bought

Sorry mate, I'm of the opinion that you've severely underestimated the severity of the conditions of the overall market. Apple isn't a buy until it reaches $45 to $50. Google is a buy at $130 to $150. And Priceline will dump another 40 to 50%, at least, from current levels. All continue to be short candidates. The market has been using these as stores of value within their portfolio for years. As the market continues unwind and convert to cash, these marquee names are the first to be liquidated. There are an abundance of sellers at the moment. Don't believe me? Let's talk in a month.

Panic on Wall Street - Fast Money Recap (9/17/08)

You must be kidding me. Never, ever bet against Goldman. Half that buying today was probably GS buying back their own shares. Earnings are estimated to be $14 per share this year--if history is anything to go by, they'll probably beat by a landslide; earnings above $20 per share wouldn't surprise me in the least. They thrive in this volatile environment. Anyone that thinks the Investment Bank model is broken has to get their head checked. Leverage (read: derivatives) are a useful instruments when used appropriately--they are excellent tools to protect wealth, for example. If you read GS's earnings report issued two days ago, they actually bought back millions of their shares at $180. GS will be fine. The shorts will get killed in the upcoming days when this thing is back above $175. There's no reason why they can't take out their old highs of $250 within the next six quarters--there are deals out there in the market and Goldman are experts at finding them and unlocking value. Their book value is 99.30; at 10x earnings on a surprise of $20 next year (last year their earnings were $24 per share) they are a $200 stock.

Nokia Tumbles, Dragging Handsets Down

Qualcomm will also suffer a great if Nokia continues to weaken.