Jase

Wachovia Downgrades AIG, Oppenheimer Downgrades Wachovia [Housing Tracker]

Downgrades are comical. The recent poster child for this mess, Indymac, is up over 300% in one day of trading. Something's brewing over there, it was bad, but not the doomsday scenario that was propogated in the media. I imagine that they will recover at lightning speed as the FDIC has likely found a buyer. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see their stock price back above $10 within a year.

'The Worst Is Over for Financials' - Really?

This is laughable. Look, the financial sector has already recovered. That said, it has sprung back a little quick, so I'm of the opinion that the markets will be heading lower again starting this week--we'll go back and test those March lows, but we certainly won't break them. I remind you that this is healthy, and normal, and expected. Let me go out on a limb and provide what I believe to be rare these days: a actual quantitative prediction. Take a look at UYG, it's a fairly decent snapshot of the overall health of the financial sector right now. It will trend lower to about $27, but that's it. That's the bottom. That's the lowest price you'll see for the rest of 2008. Buy the financial sector up hand over fist once we're there. Like prostate health, if your financials are healthy, everything else follows.