Jase

Opportunities in a High Correlation World

Geoff,

Excellent article. To what extent do large currency fluctuations contribute to this increased correlation? At the beginning of 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009, the value of US Dollar Index was at ~90, ~83, ~76, and ~81 respectively. Those are massive % swings. The run-up from its lows of 70.70 in March 2008 to its recent high of 88.46 in November of 2008 is an astounding, if not unprecedented, percentage gain. Surely this must influence your correlation results. My question is, how?

Four Commonsense Clues to a Genuine Market Bottom

Sean M,

Take a look at Jeff Rubin's (CIBC World Markets) report that attempts to provide hard evidence that each major economic downturn this century was immediately preceded by a spike in oil prices. Note that I'm not saying that *I* believe that this is the case, I'm just pointing out a potential body of evidence that argues the point counter to yours. Make up your own mind. Here's the link to the report:

research.cibcwm.com/ec...

The chart/data that I'm citing is found at the bottom of page 4.