MNSL's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/188082/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/112936-are-home-prices-still-too-high?source=feed#comment-344592 344592 An Excellent article. Now some are trying to put up housing prices by force. This method will not long last and especially first home buyers should be very careful. Do not try to overpay for those housing market manipulators, pump and dump traders. In addition we should not overpay rent as well. In addition to housing prices now rent also collapsing globally.

Still home prices are over priced. We will see one of the worst burst in the housing sector in Asia during next 10 years. First home buyers should wait until 2013. During this period you will see direction of the housing market.

However post baby boomers are not as strong as baby boomers. Once present baby boomers retire housing market will collapse.

When you buy house now you will have to sell your house in the future at a loss. It is happening all over the world now. Do not get caught to debt trap, mortgage trap and traps of real estate brokers, bankers and real estate agents.

We must try to learn how to value houses, employment rate, world economic situation, demand and supply etc before buying houses. House has become a trading product for some speculators and corrupt investors.

Once houses prices come down by 70% then you can think about buying houses. According to some industrial expert some house prices can come down by 70% in the next 18 months globally.



]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 19:10:46 -0500 An Excellent article. Now some are trying to put up housing prices by force. This method will not long last and especially first home buyers should be very careful. Do not try to overpay for those housing market manipulators, pump and dump traders. In addition we should not overpay rent as well. In addition to housing prices now rent also collapsing globally.

Still home prices are over priced. We will see one of the worst burst in the housing sector in Asia during next 10 years. First home buyers should wait until 2013. During this period you will see direction of the housing market.

However post baby boomers are not as strong as baby boomers. Once present baby boomers retire housing market will collapse.

When you buy house now you will have to sell your house in the future at a loss. It is happening all over the world now. Do not get caught to debt trap, mortgage trap and traps of real estate brokers, bankers and real estate agents.

We must try to learn how to value houses, employment rate, world economic situation, demand and supply etc before buying houses. House has become a trading product for some speculators and corrupt investors.

Once houses prices come down by 70% then you can think about buying houses. According to some industrial expert some house prices can come down by 70% in the next 18 months globally.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111651-rough-economic-seas-toss-many-boats-including-oil-price?source=feed#comment-334476 334476
You have more facts than top economist and analysts. Really stock options and higher corporate compensation are part of current bubble.

]]> Sat, 20 Dec 2008 03:05:32 -0500
You have more facts than top economist and analysts. Really stock options and higher corporate compensation are part of current bubble.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111634-35-oil-steve-forbes-was-off-by-two-years?source=feed#comment-334472 334472
Steve Forbes is correct. Most top oil analysts, economists couldn’t forecast oil prices correctly.

They said oil is going to $ 200. Gold will go to $2000. Now oil is back to $35. Can we believe? I think it will go to $20 sooner than later.

Next in line there are many inflated assets and commodities to fall further. With wealth destruction and demand destruction how can we expect higher prices for assets?

In a way it is good for consumers. It is also good for many industries who struggling to survive. Inflation will come down. Consumer purchasing power will increase.

This is good lesson for all types of bubble funds who invested in hot sectors, derivatives, real estate and highly risk credit and interest derivatives etc, such as Sovereign funds, Top banks, Insurance giants, hedge funds etc. Really they have destroyed other people’s money, wealth, pension funds and retirement’s funds etc.

Could not they invest in some productive industries instead?
]]> Sat, 20 Dec 2008 02:52:23 -0500
Steve Forbes is correct. Most top oil analysts, economists couldn’t forecast oil prices correctly.

They said oil is going to $ 200. Gold will go to $2000. Now oil is back to $35. Can we believe? I think it will go to $20 sooner than later.

Next in line there are many inflated assets and commodities to fall further. With wealth destruction and demand destruction how can we expect higher prices for assets?

In a way it is good for consumers. It is also good for many industries who struggling to survive. Inflation will come down. Consumer purchasing power will increase.

This is good lesson for all types of bubble funds who invested in hot sectors, derivatives, real estate and highly risk credit and interest derivatives etc, such as Sovereign funds, Top banks, Insurance giants, hedge funds etc. Really they have destroyed other people’s money, wealth, pension funds and retirement’s funds etc.

Could not they invest in some productive industries instead?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106611-are-equities-still-a-better-investment-than-housing?source=feed#comment-312212 312212
We are still in the first stage of housing market downturn. Many houses are in negative equity. With falling employment, recession. Slower world growth, banking crisis and newly emerged credit mess will make housing market more and more vulnerable.

Stocks easily can sell even for loss now but not housing. As a result of this prices will drag down further. I do not think any recovery in the housing market for the next 10 years. By the end of next 10 years investment in equity will be better than invest in housing. We can just compare this at the end of next 10 years.

]]> Fri, 21 Nov 2008 21:30:43 -0500
We are still in the first stage of housing market downturn. Many houses are in negative equity. With falling employment, recession. Slower world growth, banking crisis and newly emerged credit mess will make housing market more and more vulnerable.

Stocks easily can sell even for loss now but not housing. As a result of this prices will drag down further. I do not think any recovery in the housing market for the next 10 years. By the end of next 10 years investment in equity will be better than invest in housing. We can just compare this at the end of next 10 years.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103185-this-is-only-the-first-round-of-selling?source=feed#comment-295547 295547
Can we believe their forecasts?

They said oil will go to $200 a barrel during this period. Now oil is trading around $60 a barrel

We should be very careful in selecting fund mangers, insurance companies, banks in the future.

They have overleveraged in almost all the areas:

Such as property
Commodity
Currency

In addition dealing in some of the highly risk instruments can bring down entire financial systems.

]]> Fri, 31 Oct 2008 22:31:47 -0400
Can we believe their forecasts?

They said oil will go to $200 a barrel during this period. Now oil is trading around $60 a barrel

We should be very careful in selecting fund mangers, insurance companies, banks in the future.

They have overleveraged in almost all the areas:

Such as property
Commodity
Currency

In addition dealing in some of the highly risk instruments can bring down entire financial systems.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102948-commodities-the-next-bubble?source=feed#comment-295540 295540
Now almost all types of assets prices are falling. Not only that now their currencies also falling.

We are at the beginning of commodity bear market.

It will take 05 to 10 years to form the next bubble in the commodity market.

Even OPEC cut or even investment banks write reports, still oil and other commodity prices will come down. Sooner than later oil will go down to$35 a barrel.

We know what happened to $200 oil reports? Where is the demand for commodities they said?

Reasons for commodity bubble:

Trading in derivatives.
Speculation
Activity of market participants including investment banks

Now they have created currency and credit card bubble as well.
]]> Fri, 31 Oct 2008 22:20:44 -0400
Now almost all types of assets prices are falling. Not only that now their currencies also falling.

We are at the beginning of commodity bear market.

It will take 05 to 10 years to form the next bubble in the commodity market.

Even OPEC cut or even investment banks write reports, still oil and other commodity prices will come down. Sooner than later oil will go down to$35 a barrel.

We know what happened to $200 oil reports? Where is the demand for commodities they said?

Reasons for commodity bubble:

Trading in derivatives.
Speculation
Activity of market participants including investment banks

Now they have created currency and credit card bubble as well.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103240-three-favorite-mining-investments?source=feed#comment-295533 295533
Current commoidty bear market will last until 2015.]]> Fri, 31 Oct 2008 22:08:44 -0400
Current commoidty bear market will last until 2015.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90935-how-far-will-the-us-dollar-rally?source=feed#comment-232208 232208
On other hand this time, Fed took bold decision by holding rate without any change. I think their main idea is controlling inflation. Sooner than later Fed will increase interest rate as well.

I strongly believe US Dollar will appreciate not only against Pound and Euro but also with baskets of currencies such as AUD, NZD, and YEN with some soft currencies
.
Euro is falling due to Weakness in the European Economy. They have more problems such as falling house prices, credits squeeze, inflation and falling employment etc.

We will see dramatic fall in commodity prices in the next 18 months and because of this American and European industries will have rapid growth especially in companies like Boeing, Airlines, heavy industries, Chicken sector etc.

Their market share for products and services will rise dramatically not only in Europe and The USA but also in newly emerging countries such as China, India, and Brazil etc.
]]> Sun, 17 Aug 2008 04:35:19 -0400
On other hand this time, Fed took bold decision by holding rate without any change. I think their main idea is controlling inflation. Sooner than later Fed will increase interest rate as well.

I strongly believe US Dollar will appreciate not only against Pound and Euro but also with baskets of currencies such as AUD, NZD, and YEN with some soft currencies
.
Euro is falling due to Weakness in the European Economy. They have more problems such as falling house prices, credits squeeze, inflation and falling employment etc.

We will see dramatic fall in commodity prices in the next 18 months and because of this American and European industries will have rapid growth especially in companies like Boeing, Airlines, heavy industries, Chicken sector etc.

Their market share for products and services will rise dramatically not only in Europe and The USA but also in newly emerging countries such as China, India, and Brazil etc.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89063-which-way-for-the-prices-of-oil-and-gold?source=feed#comment-223732 223732 Wed, 06 Aug 2008 04:16:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88576-3-investment-ideas-for-the-rest-of-2008-and-2009?source=feed#comment-221328 221328
As a resluts of this inflation will come down. There will be demand for product and services. Investmet will improve and there will be more job opportunities. Many sectors will recover.Finally we will see recovery in the financil sector and credit market. ]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 01:25:30 -0400
As a resluts of this inflation will come down. There will be demand for product and services. Investmet will improve and there will be more job opportunities. Many sectors will recover.Finally we will see recovery in the financil sector and credit market. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83128-are-airlines-stocks-a-contrarian-opportunity?source=feed#comment-208328 208328 Fri, 18 Jul 2008 03:25:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83685-steel-coal-and-agriculture-plays-turning-over?source=feed#comment-198805 198805
I think this is the time to sell our commodity stocks and commodities in in agriculture. energy and industrial materials.]]> Sat, 05 Jul 2008 02:22:54 -0400
I think this is the time to sell our commodity stocks and commodities in in agriculture. energy and industrial materials.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82984-time-to-short-both-long-term-bonds-and-crude?source=feed#comment-194623 194623
All hot commodity indexes including oil index will come down soon.

Very soon we will see collapse in the commodity market similar to property market. We are in the bubble stage now.

Oil prices will come down sooner than later.

This is the time to short all hot sectors such as oil and other hot commodities.

]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 05:43:25 -0400
All hot commodity indexes including oil index will come down soon.

Very soon we will see collapse in the commodity market similar to property market. We are in the bubble stage now.

Oil prices will come down sooner than later.

This is the time to short all hot sectors such as oil and other hot commodities.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82992-is-the-oil-index-set-to-fall?source=feed#comment-194622 194622
Yes definitely all hot commodity indexes including oil index will come down soon.

Very soon we will see collapse in the commodity market similar to property market. We are in the bubble stage now.

Oil prices will come down sooner than later.

This is the time to short all hot sectors such as oil and other hot commodities.
]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 05:32:48 -0400
Yes definitely all hot commodity indexes including oil index will come down soon.

Very soon we will see collapse in the commodity market similar to property market. We are in the bubble stage now.

Oil prices will come down sooner than later.

This is the time to short all hot sectors such as oil and other hot commodities.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82928-three-reasons-boeing-looks-powerful?source=feed#comment-194620 194620
I think this the one stock that we shoud keep in our watch list.

Oil prices will come down sooner than later. Demand for their products will increase in the long run.

Very soon we will see collapse in the commodity market similar to property market. We are in the bubble stage now

Therfore it is better to concentrate on stocks which are going to recover first while leaving hot sectors now. ]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 05:27:53 -0400
I think this the one stock that we shoud keep in our watch list.

Oil prices will come down sooner than later. Demand for their products will increase in the long run.

Very soon we will see collapse in the commodity market similar to property market. We are in the bubble stage now

Therfore it is better to concentrate on stocks which are going to recover first while leaving hot sectors now. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82150-can-saudi-arabia-push-down-the-price-of-oil?source=feed#comment-189931 189931
I think Saudi Arabia will increase their oil production very soon. Government in Saudi Arabia also wants solutions to the inflation now. They also fear about collapse of other industrial sectors. They think higher oil prices are not sustainable and it will hit hard their economy as well. In addition I think they have realized their future depend on strong world economy. They know that their investments also going to lose due to present credit crisis in the world.

With slower world growth oil consumption will come down. It is happening all over the world now. People are more careful now some use bicycles and scooters instead of cars now.

Now George Soros see bubble in the oil market
I heard Goldman analysts Arjun Murti has reiterated his view that oil prices could fall to $75/barell once demand come down.

Given above facts we can see strong correction in the oil market soon. I think this is the longest commodity bull market we ever had. Bull markets will not last for ever.
]]> Sat, 21 Jun 2008 22:42:33 -0400
I think Saudi Arabia will increase their oil production very soon. Government in Saudi Arabia also wants solutions to the inflation now. They also fear about collapse of other industrial sectors. They think higher oil prices are not sustainable and it will hit hard their economy as well. In addition I think they have realized their future depend on strong world economy. They know that their investments also going to lose due to present credit crisis in the world.

With slower world growth oil consumption will come down. It is happening all over the world now. People are more careful now some use bicycles and scooters instead of cars now.

Now George Soros see bubble in the oil market
I heard Goldman analysts Arjun Murti has reiterated his view that oil prices could fall to $75/barell once demand come down.

Given above facts we can see strong correction in the oil market soon. I think this is the longest commodity bull market we ever had. Bull markets will not last for ever.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81323-week-in-review-dollar-s-biggest-advance-vs-euro-in-3-years?source=feed#comment-185625 185625
]]> Sat, 14 Jun 2008 16:00:44 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81267-hayward-and-butler-comment-on-speculation-in-oil-markets?source=feed#comment-185621 185621
Everybody such as pension funds, index and ETF funds, banks, investment institutions, speculators and new comers etc into oil and commodity market now. I was so surprised even in third world country person know to talk about barrel of oil, price of grain etc now.

Some intelligent investors see commodity bubble as a major threat to the world growth than credit squeeze and even they expect imminent crash in the commodity market in the near future.

Anything appreciating too fast within short period is not a good sign. There are lot of short term players. In fact some long term players are slowly disposing their holding in the commodity market now. When speculators suddenly try to apply their investment strategies (derivatives and futures trading) in the same day what will happen to the market?

I think this is the best time to leave the commodity including oil market. Can you remember in1980s also they talked about oil peak. We know what happened to it. In addition we can see cyclical collapse in the commodity market as well. Just like other markets commodity market is not going to go up continuously. Therefore anything is possible in the near future.
]]> Sat, 14 Jun 2008 15:48:45 -0400
Everybody such as pension funds, index and ETF funds, banks, investment institutions, speculators and new comers etc into oil and commodity market now. I was so surprised even in third world country person know to talk about barrel of oil, price of grain etc now.

Some intelligent investors see commodity bubble as a major threat to the world growth than credit squeeze and even they expect imminent crash in the commodity market in the near future.

Anything appreciating too fast within short period is not a good sign. There are lot of short term players. In fact some long term players are slowly disposing their holding in the commodity market now. When speculators suddenly try to apply their investment strategies (derivatives and futures trading) in the same day what will happen to the market?

I think this is the best time to leave the commodity including oil market. Can you remember in1980s also they talked about oil peak. We know what happened to it. In addition we can see cyclical collapse in the commodity market as well. Just like other markets commodity market is not going to go up continuously. Therefore anything is possible in the near future.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81063-1-238-billion-barrels-of-oil-reserves-is-this-an-oil-price-bubble?source=feed#comment-185367 185367
We do not know much about derivatives, complex instruments involved in the oil futures market. Further we get all types of players in the market now. They play paper trading almost 24 hours per day. On top of that speculators and new players also very active now.

Very soon there will be burst in the commodity market together with oil.

Already people are converting their vehicles to LPG gas, replacing their cars to scooters and bicycles, using pool cars to work and more careful now in managing their fuels through out the world. Airlines are reducing capacity and travel routes. Some factories and plants are finding difficult to run their operations and planning to shut down soon. People are unwilling to pay current price for oil. If that is so will they pay $200 dollar per barrel. No way. If it happens not only there will be total collapse in the oil market but also in other sectors.

In addition Saudi Arabia is going t announce increase of oil production in next meeting.
Even these people have realized higher oil price going to hit them back hard in the long run. US Dollar will go up in next 12 months and even Fed will increase interest rate.
Currently we see rapid rise in some commodities. Similarly there will be rapid decline in these commodities in next 12 months. You can also see volatility in the market. What all these meant for?

So instead of going oil barrel to $200 it will come down below $70 a barrel of oil very soon.

Time to time people bring different theory to mislead people. In 1980s also they talked about peak oil. We know what happened to oil market then.

Still there is no scarcity in oil as such and can produce oil to meet demand.


]]> Fri, 13 Jun 2008 23:58:27 -0400
We do not know much about derivatives, complex instruments involved in the oil futures market. Further we get all types of players in the market now. They play paper trading almost 24 hours per day. On top of that speculators and new players also very active now.

Very soon there will be burst in the commodity market together with oil.

Already people are converting their vehicles to LPG gas, replacing their cars to scooters and bicycles, using pool cars to work and more careful now in managing their fuels through out the world. Airlines are reducing capacity and travel routes. Some factories and plants are finding difficult to run their operations and planning to shut down soon. People are unwilling to pay current price for oil. If that is so will they pay $200 dollar per barrel. No way. If it happens not only there will be total collapse in the oil market but also in other sectors.

In addition Saudi Arabia is going t announce increase of oil production in next meeting.
Even these people have realized higher oil price going to hit them back hard in the long run. US Dollar will go up in next 12 months and even Fed will increase interest rate.
Currently we see rapid rise in some commodities. Similarly there will be rapid decline in these commodities in next 12 months. You can also see volatility in the market. What all these meant for?

So instead of going oil barrel to $200 it will come down below $70 a barrel of oil very soon.

Time to time people bring different theory to mislead people. In 1980s also they talked about peak oil. We know what happened to oil market then.

Still there is no scarcity in oil as such and can produce oil to meet demand.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81070-dollar-krone-relationship-a-sign-of-peak-oil?source=feed#comment-184714 184714
I think we are close to cyclical collapse in the commodity market including oil market in next 12 months.

I think this is the time to make profit in the commodity market. Sharp increase in prices for some commodity recently is a signal for imminent collapse in the commodity market.

r your comment here]]> Fri, 13 Jun 2008 04:57:07 -0400
I think we are close to cyclical collapse in the commodity market including oil market in next 12 months.

I think this is the time to make profit in the commodity market. Sharp increase in prices for some commodity recently is a signal for imminent collapse in the commodity market.

r your comment here]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80406-ethanol-producers-in-trouble-as-corn-sets-new-record?source=feed#comment-181042 181042 Sat, 07 Jun 2008 20:41:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79536-two-ways-to-profit-from-frontier-markets?source=feed#comment-177393 177393
I think there will be great opportunities in frontier markets time to come especially in Asian frontier markets such as Vietnam, Sri-Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia.
Some of these markets trade below P/E rate below 10 now.

In addition frontier markets such as Peru and Uruguay will do well time to come.


]]> Sat, 31 May 2008 18:18:03 -0400
I think there will be great opportunities in frontier markets time to come especially in Asian frontier markets such as Vietnam, Sri-Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia.
Some of these markets trade below P/E rate below 10 now.

In addition frontier markets such as Peru and Uruguay will do well time to come.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79522-is-oil-a-bubble-part-two?source=feed#comment-177388 177388
Definitely we see speculation in the oil market in addition to demand factor. Everybody into commodity now. We know what happened to all types of bubbles in the history. Very soon oil bubble will burst. ]]> Sat, 31 May 2008 18:04:34 -0400
Definitely we see speculation in the oil market in addition to demand factor. Everybody into commodity now. We know what happened to all types of bubbles in the history. Very soon oil bubble will burst. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79492-u-s-market-setting-up-for-a-2nd-half-rally?source=feed#comment-177385 177385
Definitely we will see turn around in the US stock market in the 2nd half. US dollar will appreciate surprise to many while tumbling commodity prices. Inflation will come down from present level.

Now time to leave commodity oriented countries and put money in the USA and other promising stock markets worldwide to get above average returns from 2nd half rally.
]]> Sat, 31 May 2008 17:56:14 -0400
Definitely we will see turn around in the US stock market in the 2nd half. US dollar will appreciate surprise to many while tumbling commodity prices. Inflation will come down from present level.

Now time to leave commodity oriented countries and put money in the USA and other promising stock markets worldwide to get above average returns from 2nd half rally.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78798-crude-oil-prices-bears-will-soon-win-out?source=feed#comment-174115 174115 Mon, 26 May 2008 14:30:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78626-financials-back-to-oversold?source=feed#comment-173250 173250 We should look for best managed financial companies now.]]> Sat, 24 May 2008 14:41:32 -0400 We should look for best managed financial companies now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78622-conditions-of-new-bull-market-20-or-more-drop?source=feed#comment-173249 173249
]]> Sat, 24 May 2008 14:37:34 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78477-dollar-s-fall-could-be-limited-as-fed-signals-rate-pause?source=feed#comment-172812 172812 Fri, 23 May 2008 14:50:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78264-commodities-prices-speculation-exposed?source=feed#comment-172392 172392 Fri, 23 May 2008 04:16:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77707-oil-bubble-nope?source=feed#comment-169751 169751
History has proved no asset has appreciated continuously for ever. We had tulip mania, gold mania, technological mania, real estate mania, art and commodity mania time to time. We no what happened to those asset classes and many became bankrupt.

Commodities are cyclical in nature. On the other hand when prices go up their will be less demand. So automatically prices will adjust later on. Same thing is happened to stock market. When it developes into bubble stage it will burst accordingly. Always few intelligent investors are correct when we compare with market crowd. Commodity market is in bubble stage now. Almost everybody talking about commodity now. Further we can see more volatility now.

We are in the last stage of commodity bull market. Therefore what should we do now? We must take advantage of present prices and we must try to sell whenever there is a rally. When everybody tries to sell market will crash. Some investors are planning to short market now. We must remember some points everybody wants to sell to make money. When others sell in market crash we must buy and we must sell when everybody is chasing commodity. As media highlight there is a no shortage as such at the moment. Speculation has gone to the roof. So we must be very careful in investing commodity now.
]]> Sun, 18 May 2008 16:05:57 -0400
History has proved no asset has appreciated continuously for ever. We had tulip mania, gold mania, technological mania, real estate mania, art and commodity mania time to time. We no what happened to those asset classes and many became bankrupt.

Commodities are cyclical in nature. On the other hand when prices go up their will be less demand. So automatically prices will adjust later on. Same thing is happened to stock market. When it developes into bubble stage it will burst accordingly. Always few intelligent investors are correct when we compare with market crowd. Commodity market is in bubble stage now. Almost everybody talking about commodity now. Further we can see more volatility now.

We are in the last stage of commodity bull market. Therefore what should we do now? We must take advantage of present prices and we must try to sell whenever there is a rally. When everybody tries to sell market will crash. Some investors are planning to short market now. We must remember some points everybody wants to sell to make money. When others sell in market crash we must buy and we must sell when everybody is chasing commodity. As media highlight there is a no shortage as such at the moment. Speculation has gone to the roof. So we must be very careful in investing commodity now.
]]>