Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View MagicQuote2014's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • A Safe Bet On Volatility [View article]
    MQ here:
    Extensive research on volatility studies have not identified profitable predictive short term models for the general market ($SPX). However, one could direct your attention to the expansion of short term Bollinger Band or Keltner Channels constructed for shorter term horizons as a way to track volatility. I prefer Keltner.
    One technique, I use a Breakout system which calculates Average True Range using the Keltner Channels.
    (The first number (20) sets the periods for the exponential moving average. The second number (2.0) is the ATR multiplier. The third number (10) is the number of periods for Average True Range (ATR). These default parameters set the channels 2 ATR values above/below the 20-day EMA for any stock or issue.)
    Example : Take $SPX and put 2 Keltner channels across it for a daily - hourly chart of shorter term is desired)
    Try this:
    1. (10,1.0,10) for a 10 period Exponential Moving Average of Average True Range of 1.0
    2. (20,10,10) for a 20 period Exponential Moving Average of the Average True Range of 1.0
    or other combinations you prefer.

    This renders an envelope that is measurable and consistent over different time spans.
    Last suggestion. I prefer the TVIX which is a factor of 2x VIX, as it will show how the overall 30 day average Option Premiums for $SPX are actually acting in a clearer manner, either expanding or contracting.
    Caveat Emptor... This is a derivative of a derivative, therefore the lag time on this is multiplied by an unknown factor. (Consider that a crash occurs, either external or internal- like a High Frequency Dark pool crash as occurred in the past-. First the $SPX call and put buyers have to react on the futures market. The VIX has to react and be calculated. Only then will there be a stable price without a large real time gap be available to consider to trade and make a decision
    Very difficult to accurately time, as others have commented

    MQ. Good Luck Traders
    Jun 10, 2014. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is A Giant Leap For MannKind Possible? [View article]
    MQ here, joining this thread.
    Overall observation: in my opinion previous contributor Ihartl has made a sensible suggestion above, to quote.
    "An option trade I made was to sell the Jan 2016 12.00 put for 7.00 per share. This gives me 7.00 of protection while the future of this company is established. I only loose money if the stock is under 5.00 in 18 months. (Not likely) And if the price is over 12.00 in 18 months (very likely) I will add 7.00 per share profit to the gains on my long position."
    Not to belittle the work of Mr. Trevor Lowenthal, I would turn his short option position on it's head:
    I would like to add the following opinion:
    Using multiple costly purchases and sales of options to create a profitable band around an extremely volatile stock requires a prescience that any reasonable man admits is impossible in the case of Mannkind. Note the disagreement in just this thread above - there is no consensus as to the reaction of the marketplace :
    1. I suggest adjusting your present long stock position according to your risk tolerance. If you already locked in some profits, then sell a portion and use the proceeds as follows, if you must....and then
    2. If you have some cash to risk, I suggest a simple long option combination
    purchase of a put at or near present price of $MNKD. and a simultaneous purchase of a call at or near present price. If there is a large price change you have a better chance of capturing profit.
    Actual Example. $MNKD is priced at $10.53 as I write this as of 3 pm June 10th, Tuesday.
    The July 21,2014 call for $10 is trading at $1.89-1.98 with a volume today of 10,228 options traded.
    The Put Call for $10 is trading at $1.74-1.82 with volume today of 6435.

    While I don't like the expanded premiums, if $MNKD trades outside a band of approximately 40% between now and July 20, the option position could be closed out profitably. ($12.63- 8.66).
    The short options are just not as interesting to me as they create a floor and ceiling of price contraction and expansion. I am not confident of being able to do that. The long combination avoids that .
    An amusing scenario:
    Theoretically, if $MNKD spikes to say a price of $25 on a runaway squeeze ( the shorts are already short of breath and taking imagined margin calls from their brokers while longs are dreaming of the yacht they are certain to purchase with their windfall) or falls to $3 or $4 ( the committed longs are staring in their stale beers, bleakly contemplating their long Monday morning commute).
    Good Luck Traders,
    Jun 10, 2014. 06:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile Analysis: Enough With The He Said/She Said! [View instapost]
    MQ, I encourage you to continue to contribute your balanced observations. In my opinion $NQ that represents a decent speculative long provided you follow your own suggestion of a tight stop, near or at $9.00.
    Good Luck Traders.
    Jun 9, 2014. 04:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The IBB Likely To Move Higher Along With These Biotechs With Catalysts Upcoming [View article]
    MQ here, opinion and technical comment: I just can't help myself
    1. Opinion: When I spend time-energy looking "at the thing itself" and following the technical buy sell indicators, instead of looking a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, ect derivative opinions of others, I gain the confidence to invest aggressively and profitably. (Remember in High school when you finished a problem set in mathematics and a friend would come up and ask to copy your homework? He didn't learn anything.)

    2. $MNKD, Technical comment: $MNKD price moved from $7.00 on April 2 to $10.28 on June 6th today, equals 46% move while waiting for July 15th FDA review, despite restriction on margin buying. $Learn, $Learn. We have till July 15th as the battle goes on between buyers and sellers.
    Suggestion to Control risk by setting price limits of the middle of a Keltner channel (ATR-set appropriate bands limits EMA length, atr,#of periods ) of reasonable length and your choice. The slope of the Keltner channel is 1. less volatile, 2.avoids central measure of tendency distortions and variation (like Moving average X over false signals) and 3. filters out surges of short term volume buy-sell distortions, finally, 4. filters out after hour gaps in ECN trading overnight -that so often confuse retail traders at the opening of the retail trading day, as I am sure you have experienced almost everyday.
    This is one of many techniques you can design to give you a unique wave pattern with minimal distortion in order to make informed buy sell hold decisions
    Learn and $ Earn. A Socratic Exercise:Summary Keltner- slope- stop design stops:When slope is increasing- Buy,
    When Decreasing avoid or Sell. When Neutral- hold or abstain .
    This technique can be applied to any situation.
    MQ here, Good luck traders.
    Long live J. Welles Wilder Jr., a genius before his time and before personal computers existed.
    Jun 7, 2014. 04:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Shares Of MNKD? Yes... [View instapost]
    MQ here:
    Anyone out there tried to purchase $MNKD on a margin account at Scottrade?It was refused. I just included the inquiry in stock talk for $MNKD. I would appreciate other traders' experience with their broker.
    Thank you, MQ here
    Good luck traders
    Jun 3, 2014. 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Calm Before The Storm [View article]
    MQ here:
    Hi John: the measure of response of the 2 previous comments indicates that your observations have evoked emotional consternation. I don't think the negativity of the 2 previous comments is merited.
    In my opinion,your article is a thoughtful longer term view of the market conditions and offers something of substance to think about, unlike so many other inflammatory, and bombastic contributions.
    If you accept the fact that all things rise and fall, upon reflection one might add $TVIX to a watch list at a low price of $4.20 here. This EFT represents a 2x leveraged short term representative of market volatility. It has come down from $11.5 in February 2014 to a close of $4.20 as of today, while the market recovered from it's February close. $TVIX is less expensive than shorting the $SVXY, and could be a good opportunity if the $SPX market corrects back to around $1780 from Feb lows, near the 200 day MA. That would be 250% increase for those investors looking for a hedge against a sudden correction.
    As always, Good luck traders, wishing everyone well.
    May 30, 2014. 12:19 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stalled State Of MannKind [View article]
    MQ here, no problem.
    I always encourage everyone to keep learning and be curious. It's important to learn to trust your own perceptions when trading with your money.
    Good luck traders.
    May 24, 2014. 01:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stalled State Of MannKind [View article]
    MQ here: regards query about Stages in Stock moves
    Definitions of the Stages and Sub-stages

    Stage 1A Start of a base. Needs much more time.
    Stage 1 Basing Phase. May begin accumulation.
    Stage 1B Late in base-building phase. Watch for breakout.

    Stage 2A Early in uptrend stage. Ideal time to buy aggressively.
    Stage 2 Advancing Stage.
    Stage 2B Getting late in uptrend.

    Stage 3A Looks as if a top is starting to form. Be sure to protect holdings with a close stop.
    Stage 3 The Top Area. Start to reduce positions.
    Stage 3B Has become increasingly toppy. Use rallies for at least partial selling.

    Stage 4A Stock has entered Downtrend Stage. Close out remaining positions.
    Stage 4 The Declining Stage. Avoid on the long side.
    Stage 4B Late in downtrend. Much too soon to consider buying.
    Stage 4B- Although not yet “officially” in Stage 1A, stock has now seen its low for the cycle.

    FYI:Stan Weinstein, one of the stock technical guru icons was very active in defining stages in stock moves. Google for more.

    Good Luck Traders
    May 22, 2014. 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stalled State Of MannKind [View article]
    MQ here:Technical comment for those interested.
    1. since my last technical comment on April 18th on this thread $MNKD has moved significantly higher from $6.25 to $7.39 as of close on May 19th, while the Standard and Poor's is up only 1% and the Russell 2000 (small cap index) is down 2.5%.
    2. this 18% increase was accompanied by increasing volume.

    Summary: Evidence of sustained intermediate accumulation.( Borrowing from Stan Weinstein's stage moves, it looks like a 2 A move.)

    Good luck traders

    Good luck Traders
    May 19, 2014. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does The Low Market Volatility Mean? [View article]
    Hi John: MQ here:

    You speak about the market as if it is animated and has a life of it's own. I assume that your comments are metaphorical, and that you realize that you are conceptualizing, but more important you comments are inaccurate
    1. The Average True Range of the $SPX is 39.021 over the last 14 weeks.
    2.The ATR for the $SPX over the last 50 weeks is 36.46.
    3. The Average True Range for the $SPx for the last 4 weeks is 41.08, 12% greater variance than the last 50 weeks of trading.
    4. Consult your reality about variance and direction. Advise you study Wilder features ATR in his 1978 book, New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, before you deciminate more misinformation.
    5. The weekly $Vix (Volitility Index) is presently at 12.63. The 200 day Moving Averge of $VIX is 14.28. That is 13% below the average for the last 40 trading weeks.
    In conclusion your article is inaccurate and misleading. Suggest you do some more observation before submitting articles, unless your intention is to self-advertise rather than educate.
    Good luck traders.
    May 4, 2014. 02:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stalled State Of MannKind [View article]
    Aside from the above opinions, I have a Technical comment to contribute for those who want stay in touch with something other than their own discursive machinations and opinions:
    1 I looked at the comparative performance of $MNKD compared to the Standard and Poors Index : since the April 2 high of $8.08 after the announcement of delay by FDA for further consideration . to Thursday, April 17, $MNKD price closed at $6.25. A decline of 27%. (this is as near I can get to coinciding with announcement of the FDA postponement to reconvene on July 15th as it hit the market.)
    At the same time the most followed index , representing 75% of all the equity in the market , Standard and Poors, EFT $SPY is at 186 versus 188, a decline of only 1%. (From what I see, the market has not corrected as much as the comments above seem to conclude - a major bear market is confirmed. (on the contrary that is not yet confirmed-rotation to utilities and oil sector counteract the rotation out of the popular sectors- I believe that aside from some heavy hedge fund short selling the average money manager is rotating to a late stage bull market, but not pulling the plug indiscriminately. Check your sector rotations to confirm)
    2. The trading volume in $MNKD has declined from 167 million for the week ending 3/31 to 82 million for the week ending 4/7 to only 28 million shares trading in the 4 day week ending this Thursday( a new low of only 4.4 million shares on Friday, by the way) That is a very rapid contraction into indifference and indecisiveness.
    Summary: I draw the following conclusions from what I see :
    1.There is no net accumulation of shares.
    2.There has been a net out-flow of money out of Mannkind since April 2nd.
    3. If indeed, Afreeza represents an opportunity of a lifetime if approved, then there appears to be a lack of conviction on the part of those who have more then words to contribute to the market debate.
    4. I see no evidence of a massive short covering having ever occurred.
    5. I do not have reliable data on the current percentage of shorts outstanding in Mannkind.
    6.Further disclosure, I have not studied the action in the derivatives, but have noticed that the premiums are contracted. I aknowledge as a bet worth taking,that I held some options that I bought and sold at a loss, and that I have a very small position along with some Leaps in Mannkind.
    Lastly. from my readings I believe many people suffering from diabetes would greatly benefit from the approval of Afreeza in leading more balenced and normal lives in managing their blood sugar levels so as to minimize damage to their immune systems.

    Best wishes and Good Luck Traders and Happy Easter Holiday.
    Apr 18, 2014. 02:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Really Wants To Be A Banker These Days? [View article]
    Hi John:
    (I want to let you know I have enjoyed your last contributions, and as such I put you into my followers file.) . I have a long comment to make for fun.
    I am sure you are familiar Ludvig Von Mises, Human Action. Financial Alchemy has always been a paradoxical proposition. For periods of time it can create a surplus or deficit of monetary supply,velocity; and affect market forces of supply and demand. As it works its way through the circulatory system of the economy it gives the appearance of Alchemy- creation of true wealth via the manipulation of elements ( lead - gold metaphor with low interest rates over-leveraged real estate loans resulting in real estate booms and busts (note over 2,000,000 empty homes in the US that have been abandoned by the banks that created the mortgage backed securities that the Federal Govt. guaranteed)

    (** see as of the first quarter of 2013, there are just over 133 million housing units in America and 10.7 percent of them — more than 14. 2 million — are vacant all year round for some reason or another, according to the Census Bureau.

    To continue the thread, the astute observer should always look for imbalances creating opportunity.
    Example of an imbalance: I was just curious to see that Yelp that was at a price $101 is now below $70, within 5 weeks. A tidy sum for the short sellers (a non-productive company that provides a dubious service, and was created with public floating of stock to the public. Worth over 4 billion dollars of stock, with a Return on Assets (ttm): -1.41% negative ). Never earned any money, but the investment banking people made millions on commissions underwriting the company.
    The bright, creative people move\ to the side of opportunity by virtue of their instincts and skillfulness in spotting opportunity. They generally have the capacity to observe and think for themselves. George Soros, the Alchemy of Finance, an excellent book, illustrates the creation of huge profits that George made in the 1970's due to the Real Estate Leverage. This is subject A reading for the earstwhile $ manager. ( the short sellers here have made many times their risk capital in a very short period of time.)
    The market always presents opportunities to profit. Developing the skillfulness to move from a place of victim to victimizer requires a lot of observation and work.
    I look forward to your next contribution. Take a look at my profile. I arrange life insurance etc. as a livelihood, but trade for fun and profit.
    Good Luck Traders.
    Apr 6, 2014. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mannkind's FDA Advisory Board Approval And Current Market Dynamics Effecting The Stock Price [View instapost]
    HI Grow: As I have always felt, I do not judge any time horizon from one day to 10 years for any trader or investor, whether for myself or others. I do maintain that it is better to know than not know about the movement of the wave that you are riding.
    Take Care,
    Apr 1, 2014. 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NYSE Margin Debt Hits All-Time High Of $465.72 Billion In February, With Risk Rank At No. 2 [View article]
    Excellent article JJ. My 2 cents:
    1. It is difficult and useless to fight expansion of credit both in the market and by the Fed. the market has continued to recycle from new emerging stocks back to old timers like MSFT and INTC. One commentator posed a question , What other choices are there with zero interest rate for 401k contributions except to keep dollar cost averaging until the market falls off a cliff like in 2008 in the event of financial markets having a new crisis? Meanwhile, I am day-trading the S +P and watching and have no long term paper stock positions
    Mar 29, 2014. 10:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGAZ - Higher Levels Ahead [View instapost]
    10-4 , I value your opinion. I am still long.
    Mar 28, 2014. 04:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment