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Insurance agent and Private Trader My orientation is that of a swing trader, intent on converting perceptions to profit. 1. I believe market volume and price interact similar to the laws of physics governing ballistics: price reflects what participants think; volume, what they feel. 2.... More
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MagicQuote Insurance Services
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Northwest Biotherapeutics Inc. Promise Of A “Cure For Cancer” Attracts Attention
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  • Mannkind, A Study In Market Behavior

    This a purely technical trader's comment on $MNKD's price action since April 2, 2014 to today June 11, 2014.

    Price range top at 11.13 on June 5, current price as I write this is 10.07.

    (I assume by now anyone interested in Mannkind has read over the history of written coverage of Alfred Mann and his historic diabetes related research work including the invention of the insulin pump, and the current coverage of the FDA pending approval of Afreeza --on April, 2, 2014 - MannKind Corp. MNKD said a Food and Drug Administration advisory committee recommended approval of the biopharmaceutical company's, and now the market awaits the July 15th scheduled approval of the FDA review committee).

    Technical charts can be likened to a form of Rorschach ink blot in that different observers interpret the same thing differently. (there are no 2 identical charts)

    A question I have regards Mannkind in particular: (some charts are more readable than others

    At the end of the day, the difference between a chart and an ink blot is the payoff.

    The question for me as a trader is can I discern a predictable pattern from the variety of technical indicators in order to execute a profitable trading plan?

    At present I have no position. I previously purchased and sold stock and options at a profit based on what I saw from both my readings of the current fundamental issues, and technical price action. In attempting to be empirical I am now on the sidelines.

    Here in summary is what I see:

    Since the price peak of 11.11 on June 5th, Thursday, I see gradual distribution and sell off of 10% on lighter volume. There is no hidden accumulation or underlying trend for the last 5 trading days that indicates that this distribution is tailing off. The slope (as measured by the rise and fall of the linear curve of the price over time during the last 6 days is exactly at -.046%. If you are mathematically inclined this is simply a mathematical verification of the price falling from 11.11 to 10.065 as I write this blog.

    A. It is the smoothed curve of the fall and in no way is an indication of the actual fall.

    B. The slope has no predictive value in and of itself.

    However, as an active observer I will be watching the slope, along with many other indicators, in the future, to try to get a reading on what I should do as a trader.

    Good Luck traders,


    Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in MNKD over the next 72 hours.

    Jun 12 1:57 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Mannkind's FDA Advisory Board Approval And Current Market Dynamics Effecting The Stock Price

    Given the FDA advisory guidance and the current market dynamics surrounding $MNKD tomorrow's market price action will be fascinating for interested parties. It should be a classic lesson in market behavior in the face of a short squeeze.

    1. Current Market # of current outstanding shares is 360 million with a float

    of 227.5 million shares $MNKD Mannkind Corporation, yahoo statistics

    1. Current percentage of float is approximately 41 % with 63 million shares short with average trade volume of 6.3 million shares daily. Nasdaq Short Interest Report
    1. With 18% of institutions and 46% insider holdings reducing the float to a smaller size than normal for a company with this market capitalization of 1.45 billion, the creation of a vacuum with 10 days of outstanding shorts as of close on March 31, 2014 reported.
    2. In a strict sense, there is no such thing as a total short vacuum that will force a stock price up -as there will be some sellers tomorrow. However, the one-sidedness of available stock combined with the news release of the FDA advisory panels approval will cause market instability that bears close watching tomorrow.

    "The FDA's advisory committee voted 13-1 to recommend Affrezza be given marketing approval for treating type 1 diabetes, and 14-0 for treating type 2 diabetes. The PDUFA date for the FDA to complete its review of Afrezza is set for April 15."

    1. You might consider using tested technical indicators to watch the market fluctuations if you are long the stock or options and want to maximize your profits.
    2. Look for double topping action as a sign the panic on the part of shorts has abated. Do not sell on the first huge spike up, and do not be afraid of the first pullback.
    3. Look for the comparative volume on the up moves versus the down moves.
    4. You might use the Chaikin Money Flow indicator in order to assist you in calculating the actual flow of buying and selling that goes on in an intraday period.
    5. Use the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator to see if your relative price moves over different period of times moves up or down 12-26-9 crossovers are generally used as typical settings.
    6. You might also use Alexander Elder's Impulse system, which is a price indicator similar to HLC or like Candlesticks indicates with a color system that an exponential moving average (usually set at 13), and the MACD (again normal setting 12-16-9) are in synchronization. If both are going up your chart will show Green. If both are going down it will be red, which is a signal that bears are temporarily in control. If your chart is Blue it means that the market is in some period of struggle for control by buyers and sellers.

    Good Luck Traders. MQ

    Apr 01 6:30 PM | Link | 3 Comments
  • Standard And Poors 500, Which Direction Tommorow After March 13th Selloff?

    Beware the ideas of March. Wither go the short term direction of the $SPY? and the market?

    "You have too many market gurus in this country. They have told you what to do, what to think, what to practice. Think for yourself." fn.

    Remember to trade what you see in the next few days, and turn off the volume of the financial TV stations. Look at price and volume interaction- and I can't emphasize this enough! think and look for yourself.

    Observation: The Arms Index Trin is very high at 2.46 at the close on Thursday March 13th. Odds favor a quick snapback in the morning, but after that be especially alert. The futures S&P March contract is trading at 1848.15 as this is being written (9 pm PST.) But that really does not tell you that much.

    Good luck Traders,


    Mar 13 11:47 PM | Link | Comment!
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