AndyMan

Today in Commodities: A Fitting End

I don't think the fed can raise interest rates.....the market will try to force them. Since most of americas debt is short term ARMs.....they will need to print and print just to cover the massive interest on the debt. We will be money printing machines.

The Truth About Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy (Part II)

I think most of us have come to the conclusion that wind and solar are not yet viable alternatives yet.....and I agree with the author that we should remove all subsidies and see which come to the top. That goes for everything...not only energy related.

But it seems as though the stock recommendations are somewhat making bets on which fuel we are going to use in the future.....and I am sure some will be good bets (I invest in NG, oil, coal, uranium producers) but wouldn't it be a better bet to just bet on electricity demand increasing? If this is so, wouldn't companies that produce electricity benefit? They also would benefit from any advances in energy gathering/way of producing energy.

The only downfall I can think of is energy efficiency reducing demand. But if we do go to electric cars, I would imagine they would be a gold mine for an investment opportunity....and they also provide solid dividends.....plus with all the money printing going on, they typically hold a lot of debt....and they can pay this debt down with a currency which is consistently going down. icing on the cake.

So it doesn't matter what power source is used....we need power....and if electricity demand increases...we win as investors. Anything I am overlooking?

And in terms of efficiency.....thinking out of the box here. We spend a lot of the energy on moving a car and person......the car itself takes a lot of energy to move, perhaps the car and even the person doesn't need to be moved, but only the items? What if we make a infastructure where only goods are transferred from place to place...it could be a magnetic train set up, a compressed air set up, fossil fuel based, electrical, whatever. This would cut down demand HUGE. We could basically order everything over the phone or internet.

Oil Is Still the Key to U.S. Economic Future

most things are a joke.

I mean.....you realize that when they test cars they take a reading of so many particles per gas emitted.....you could measure it in parts per million or some other form....but its a percentageof emission from a tailpipe.

So you could emit a very high amount of a toxic substance but as long as you emit a shitload more non-toxic byproducts...you are ok...since its a percentage. This just doesn't make sense to me????

Shouldn't we be looking at total byproduct of toxins released per mile? Is it possible to have a very lean running car which emits hardly any toxins on a per MPG basis....but might be 100% toxins when coming from the tailpipe......but the overall toxin amount emitted per mile is just a fraction of a percent of what emitted from our cars today?

wouldn't that be the ultimate goal of a car anyway? efficiency.

I don't think most of the policies are well thought out, and I am questioning how this government is run. I can't believe that our government is this inept, I think there is a higher power running our government......whomever that may be....yea conspiracy theory stuff. who knows.

I just DO NOT want them making any decisions at all. I want to choose how to live my life....and spend my money.

How to Invest in Peak Oil

Oil and NG are going to be pretty difficult to replace....it will take some time.

With all the technological advancement.......over all these years...we still haven't been able to use other forms of transportation or heating.

Wind has been around for many years......and Solar may never become the low cost solution people think it might be (atleast not in my lifetime).

Huge investments would be needed to make these intermittant sources even workable......as in trillions of dollars just in electrical grid upgrades...and power lines to the renewable sources........then trillions for the renewable sources....maybe even more. We don't even know the evironmental effects of putting wind turbines everywhere....and remember...we already put these turbines in a lot of the best areas.....much like oil and NG production....more and more wind turbines or solar installed will go into less and less returning areas with time.

I am sticking with the oil and NG investments........and only have a small exposure to alternative energy.....as many years have passed when the two have coexisted with not much headway....low prices or not.

Stay Away from U.S. Treasuries - Invest in Energy Stocks

We first need to cut spending like no other....abolish the fed reserve, get rid of departments on the federal level...shrink government everywhere we can....let the market control interest rates, etc.

We should have a recession...let credit contract and build a solid foundation.

Once we do these steps.....businesses will come back...taxes will be low.....and people will need to work again. Borrowing will decrease...home prices will probably continue to fall to affordable levels....the price of education will fall.....the dollar with strengthen...commodities will cheapen.....and savers will not get killed through decreased purchasing power.




On Jun 15 04:50 PM jack kreg wrote:

> A1234, you are right about the coming collapse of the Obama dollar,
> with Trillion $$/year borrowing, and FED buying up 30yr treasury's,
> sure the US dollar is expected to weaken alot in coming years. <br/>Why
> not cut this extrodinary explosion in gov spending, infact, if the
> economy seems to be getting on track, why not cancel the "Stimulus",
> that would cut the deficit a cool Trillion over the next year or
> so.
> Then, with NGV's and a strengthen dollar, at least relative to a
> collaspe, America's cost of energy will be lower, AND we will be
> buying our energy from ourselves, paying American salary's instead
> of OPEC's bank accounts,
> And please dont forget where much of the $$ that funds ME terrorist
> organizations, PS, from American car drivers.
> So, lets buy an American fuel, NG.

My Thoughts on Oil

I see a lot of people commenting about GDP....GDP really isn't a good indicator of anything.

Its a doctored number....and only measures output.

Say you are building cities......you build 1 city per year on top of all the cities the years before. GDP is 1 city. So 1 extra city for people to live in.

Let's say a disaster comes and knocks down a city that your country has previously built. The next year the GDP doubles and rebuilds one city that was knocked down and builds 1 new city.

GDP doubles....yet only 1 new city was added. Productivity collectively has only grown in real terms by 1 city from the previous year before.

I think GDP numbers aren't a good measure to go by...and are definitely manipulated to some degree....just MO. What effect does this have? The government overinflated GDP and underinflated inflation.....when in real value.....we have been declining for years...some more than it shows. Most people value things by purchasing power of a commodity, gold or some other tangible thing to get a better gauge on productivity growth/dollar growth and inflation.

My Thoughts on Oil

I think what people tend to forget is energy density.....and when it comes to battery powered cars.....you can only pack so much energy in a battery....so battery technology and the weight of the vehicle become very important when considering batteris.

I am pretty sure you could manufacture gasoline or diesel engines that are more efficient than a battery powered car of todays technology. You could probably even muster a 300MPG vehicle....the problem lies in the size of the vehicle. No one in thier right mind would be driving such a small efficient vehicle on 4 wheels next to huge vehicles...and a huge vehicle could be a chevrolet aveo...weighing 2400lbs....but a small fuel efficient vehicle might have a weight of only a few hundred pounds.

In order for vehicles to work with batteries of todays technology....I believe they would need to be a lot lighter....atleast if you are going to go any distance with them.

I look around me and everyone strives to be the most inefficient they can be. Its even engraved into most peoples DNA.

I mean...lets take a look at girls for instance. They typically like guys who own vehicles who suck down gas.....trucks, sports cars, luxury cars....limo's, airplanes (huge plus there), etc.

How much action does the guy get for taking a bus or train? come on!

Think about the size of homes....striving to be bigger and bigger....and half the house isn't even used....bigger TV's etc.

We need the price of oil to increase in real terms for anything to change....oil has been up and down with money supply growth/destruction and nothing else really.

Analysts on Canadian Oil Sands' Higher Than Expected Distribution Cut

sometimes there is no explenation.....and when someone explains a drop or pop....they might not even explain it right.

Five Key Quotes From Monsanto's FQ109 Conference Call

Well if thats the case....all medicine could be deemed bad. As people with genetic deficincies live long enough to breed those bad genes back into the gene pool.

eventually everyone will be on drugs for their cystic fibrosis or whatever else is wrong.

I am simply using this as an example.

The Outlook for Corn

If you back the currency with some sort of value...like gold.....you essentially lock most commodities down.

There wouldn't be much price swings from yr to yr....and people like you and me wouldn't have to speculate on stocks to maintain the purchasing power of our dollar if we decided to save.

a dollar now would be a dollar 20 yrs from now.


You would eliminate every bubble scenario....there would be no depression in the 30's....no tech bubble or housing bubble, (atleast nothing nearly as large). Interest rates should be controlled by the market. Austrian economics work.......its this cheap money fake money coming into existance backed by nothing along with horrible government policies which create the largest bubbles in history.

This is an all out paper war between countries......

Americans Forget High Oil Prices Too Quickly

I bought my Chevrolet Aveo brand new in 2005 for $7,700 at a huge discount sale.


You can buy cars under $10,000.


Oil will go higher at some point....this is all demand destruction from the financial fall out....oil is just trading alongside the stock market it seems. Just be patient...wait for the investment to dry up in new projects...which it is....and wait for the declines from conventional oil to set in.....pick up the cheap shares today...collect the dividends...and wait.


On Dec 08 06:41 PM Wadhamite wrote:

> I am awaiting the day when China produces and sells in the USA a
> $10,000 fuel-efficient small car. Does anyone really doubt that it
> will happen? When it does, the implications for "big oil" and "Detroit
> 3" should be obvious. And, in today's cheap-oil and auto-bailout
> scenario, there might be just enough time for America to beat the
> Chinese. If we lose this opportunity, it's gone for a long time.

Roger Wiegand: 'Severe Bull Market' Ahead for Gold

I also am not a huge gold or silver fan. I still believe that any commodity in short supply will be the large winner.

I could live my life without ever owning a precious metal. But I cannot live without food, heat, water, and shelter. I will do anything for these items....any money or work will have to be for these items. What will be in short supply in the future. I am thinking probably energy, possibly food, and clean water.

Sure gold and silver may rise during inflation or deflation......but history has shown that inflation of the money supply is the long trend.......buy the assets during the deflation period for the super long haul....and you should be a winner. Buy the producers/miners as well at steep discounts. Get some big dividend payers.

Technology is our savior and our enemy at the same time.

Just my .02.

$300/Barrel Oil Is Coming - Barron's Interview

tough to say where oil goes long term.....in terms of price.

But I can say that oil is getting heavier.....we are going to deeper waters, taking on more expensive projects....and exporting countries are all cannabolizing their exports with growing internal demand....and/or declining production aside from a few countries.

in 5-7 yrs....$300 is easily doable.

The deep sea oil fields will be getting smaller and smaller....mexico will be a net importer of oil....all new hybrids or NG cars will not be phased in to make up the lost amount of oil...etc.etc.etc

Reevaluating Coal

P/E's and fair value should be spoken about with respect to their growth....

and as stvcomment or a look at their PEG ratio...a measly .44 means this sucker is underpriced and going higher.

I don't see coal prices drastically decreasing anytime soon (next few yrs) in fact, peak exports of oil and the introduction of electric cars by 2010 could have robust pricing for a very long time.

Petrobras: Buy and Sit Tight Like Soros

Heebner is a great fund manager....I agree with most of his decisions on the companies he invests in.......don't take short term volitility to heart.

If you whip out the 10 best stocks over the last 10 years....I am willing to bet almost all of them have had corrections of over 30-40% on their way to returning thousands if not tens of thousands of percents. of returning 30-200 baggers over the 10 year period.