AndyMan's Comments

Today in Commodities: A Fitting End

Sat, 22 Aug 2009 09:31:26 -0400

I don't think the fed can raise interest rates.....the market will try to force them. Since most of americas debt is short term ARMs.....they will need to print and print just to cover the massive interest on the debt. We will be money printing machines.

The Truth About Fossil Fuels and Renewable Energy (Part II)

Sun, 09 Aug 2009 22:35:25 -0400

I think most of us have come to the conclusion that wind and solar are not yet viable alternatives yet.....and I agree with the author that we should remove all subsidies and see which come to the top. That goes for everything...not only energy related.

But it seems as though the stock recommendations are somewhat making bets on which fuel we are going to use in the future.....and I am sure some will be good bets (I invest in NG, oil, coal, uranium producers) but wouldn't it be a better bet to just bet on electricity demand increasing? If this is so, wouldn't companies that produce electricity benefit? They also would benefit from any advances in energy gathering/way of producing energy.

The only downfall I can think of is energy efficiency reducing demand. But if we do go to electric cars, I would imagine they would be a gold mine for an investment opportunity....and they also provide solid dividends.....plus with all the money printing going on, they typically hold a lot of debt....and they can pay this debt down with a currency which is consistently going down. icing on the cake.

So it doesn't matter what power source is used....we need power....and if electricity demand increases...we win as investors. Anything I am overlooking?

And in terms of efficiency.....thinking out of the box here. We spend a lot of the energy on moving a car and person......the car itself takes a lot of energy to move, perhaps the car and even the person doesn't need to be moved, but only the items? What if we make a infastructure where only goods are transferred from place to place...it could be a magnetic train set up, a compressed air set up, fossil fuel based, electrical, whatever. This would cut down demand HUGE. We could basically order everything over the phone or internet.

Oil Is Still the Key to U.S. Economic Future

Wed, 05 Aug 2009 23:04:37 -0400

most things are a joke.

I mean.....you realize that when they test cars they take a reading of so many particles per gas emitted.....you could measure it in parts per million or some other form....but its a percentageof emission from a tailpipe.

So you could emit a very high amount of a toxic substance but as long as you emit a shitload more non-toxic byproducts...you are ok...since its a percentage. This just doesn't make sense to me????

Shouldn't we be looking at total byproduct of toxins released per mile? Is it possible to have a very lean running car which emits hardly any toxins on a per MPG basis....but might be 100% toxins when coming from the tailpipe......but the overall toxin amount emitted per mile is just a fraction of a percent of what emitted from our cars today?

wouldn't that be the ultimate goal of a car anyway? efficiency.

I don't think most of the policies are well thought out, and I am questioning how this government is run. I can't believe that our government is this inept, I think there is a higher power running our government......whomever that may be....yea conspiracy theory stuff. who knows.

I just DO NOT want them making any decisions at all. I want to choose how to live my life....and spend my money.

How to Invest in Peak Oil

Mon, 13 Jul 2009 08:24:36 -0400

Oil and NG are going to be pretty difficult to replace....it will take some time.

With all the technological advancement.......over all these years...we still haven't been able to use other forms of transportation or heating.

Wind has been around for many years......and Solar may never become the low cost solution people think it might be (atleast not in my lifetime).

Huge investments would be needed to make these intermittant sources even workable......as in trillions of dollars just in electrical grid upgrades...and power lines to the renewable sources........then trillions for the renewable sources....maybe even more. We don't even know the evironmental effects of putting wind turbines everywhere....and remember...we already put these turbines in a lot of the best areas.....much like oil and NG production....more and more wind turbines or solar installed will go into less and less returning areas with time.

I am sticking with the oil and NG investments........and only have a small exposure to alternative energy.....as many years have passed when the two have coexisted with not much headway....low prices or not.

Stay Away from U.S. Treasuries - Invest in Energy Stocks

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 17:32:47 -0400

We first need to cut spending like no other....abolish the fed reserve, get rid of departments on the federal level...shrink government everywhere we can....let the market control interest rates, etc.

We should have a recession...let credit contract and build a solid foundation.

Once we do these steps.....businesses will come back...taxes will be low.....and people will need to work again. Borrowing will decrease...home prices will probably continue to fall to affordable levels....the price of education will fall.....the dollar with strengthen...commodities will cheapen.....and savers will not get killed through decreased purchasing power.

On Jun 15 04:50 PM jack kreg wrote:

> A1234, you are right about the coming collapse of the Obama dollar,
> with Trillion $$/year borrowing, and FED buying up 30yr treasury's,
> sure the US dollar is expected to weaken alot in coming years.
Why
> not cut this extrodinary explosion in gov spending, infact, if the
> economy seems to be getting on track, why not cancel the "Stimulus",
> that would cut the deficit a cool Trillion over the next year or
> so.
> Then, with NGV's and a strengthen dollar, at least relative to a
> collaspe, America's cost of energy will be lower, AND we will be
> buying our energy from ourselves, paying American salary's instead
> of OPEC's bank accounts,
> And please dont forget where much of the $$ that funds ME terrorist
> organizations, PS, from American car drivers.
> So, lets buy an American fuel, NG.

My Thoughts on Oil

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 22:58:03 -0400

I see a lot of people commenting about GDP....GDP really isn't a good indicator of anything.

Its a doctored number....and only measures output.

Say you are building cities......you build 1 city per year on top of all the cities the years before. GDP is 1 city. So 1 extra city for people to live in.

Let's say a disaster comes and knocks down a city that your country has previously built. The next year the GDP doubles and rebuilds one city that was knocked down and builds 1 new city.

GDP doubles....yet only 1 new city was added. Productivity collectively has only grown in real terms by 1 city from the previous year before.

I think GDP numbers aren't a good measure to go by...and are definitely manipulated to some degree....just MO. What effect does this have? The government overinflated GDP and underinflated inflation.....when in real value.....we have been declining for years...some more than it shows. Most people value things by purchasing power of a commodity, gold or some other tangible thing to get a better gauge on productivity growth/dollar growth and inflation.

My Thoughts on Oil

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 22:50:06 -0400

I think what people tend to forget is energy density.....and when it comes to battery powered cars.....you can only pack so much energy in a battery....so battery technology and the weight of the vehicle become very important when considering batteris.

I am pretty sure you could manufacture gasoline or diesel engines that are more efficient than a battery powered car of todays technology. You could probably even muster a 300MPG vehicle....the problem lies in the size of the vehicle. No one in thier right mind would be driving such a small efficient vehicle on 4 wheels next to huge vehicles...and a huge vehicle could be a chevrolet aveo...weighing 2400lbs....but a small fuel efficient vehicle might have a weight of only a few hundred pounds.

In order for vehicles to work with batteries of todays technology....I believe they would need to be a lot lighter....atleast if you are going to go any distance with them.

I look around me and everyone strives to be the most inefficient they can be. Its even engraved into most peoples DNA.

I mean...lets take a look at girls for instance. They typically like guys who own vehicles who suck down gas.....trucks, sports cars, luxury cars....limo's, airplanes (huge plus there), etc.

How much action does the guy get for taking a bus or train? come on!

Think about the size of homes....striving to be bigger and bigger....and half the house isn't even used....bigger TV's etc.

We need the price of oil to increase in real terms for anything to change....oil has been up and down with money supply growth/destruction and nothing else really.

Analysts on Canadian Oil Sands' Higher Than Expected Distribution Cut

Thu, 29 Jan 2009 21:15:07 -0500

sometimes there is no explenation.....and when someone explains a drop or pop....they might not even explain it right.

Five Key Quotes From Monsanto's FQ109 Conference Call

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 17:21:54 -0500

Well if thats the case....all medicine could be deemed bad. As people with genetic deficincies live long enough to breed those bad genes back into the gene pool.

eventually everyone will be on drugs for their cystic fibrosis or whatever else is wrong.

I am simply using this as an example.

The Outlook for Corn

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 17:18:57 -0500

If you back the currency with some sort of value...like gold.....you essentially lock most commodities down.

There wouldn't be much price swings from yr to yr....and people like you and me wouldn't have to speculate on stocks to maintain the purchasing power of our dollar if we decided to save.

a dollar now would be a dollar 20 yrs from now.

You would eliminate every bubble scenario....there would be no depression in the 30's....no tech bubble or housing bubble, (atleast nothing nearly as large). Interest rates should be controlled by the market. Austrian economics work.......its this cheap money fake money coming into existance backed by nothing along with horrible government policies which create the largest bubbles in history.

This is an all out paper war between countries......

Americans Forget High Oil Prices Too Quickly

Mon, 08 Dec 2008 23:08:32 -0500

I bought my Chevrolet Aveo brand new in 2005 for $7,700 at a huge discount sale.

You can buy cars under $10,000.

Oil will go higher at some point....this is all demand destruction from the financial fall out....oil is just trading alongside the stock market it seems. Just be patient...wait for the investment to dry up in new projects...which it is....and wait for the declines from conventional oil to set in.....pick up the cheap shares today...collect the dividends...and wait.

On Dec 08 06:41 PM Wadhamite wrote:

> I am awaiting the day when China produces and sells in the USA a
> $10,000 fuel-efficient small car. Does anyone really doubt that it
> will happen? When it does, the implications for "big oil" and "Detroit
> 3" should be obvious. And, in today's cheap-oil and auto-bailout
> scenario, there might be just enough time for America to beat the
> Chinese. If we lose this opportunity, it's gone for a long time.

Roger Wiegand: 'Severe Bull Market' Ahead for Gold

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 21:40:33 -0400

I also am not a huge gold or silver fan. I still believe that any commodity in short supply will be the large winner.

I could live my life without ever owning a precious metal. But I cannot live without food, heat, water, and shelter. I will do anything for these items....any money or work will have to be for these items. What will be in short supply in the future. I am thinking probably energy, possibly food, and clean water.

Sure gold and silver may rise during inflation or deflation......but history has shown that inflation of the money supply is the long trend.......buy the assets during the deflation period for the super long haul....and you should be a winner. Buy the producers/miners as well at steep discounts. Get some big dividend payers.

Technology is our savior and our enemy at the same time.

Just my .02.

$300/Barrel Oil Is Coming - Barron's Interview

Sun, 07 Sep 2008 21:29:40 -0400

tough to say where oil goes long term.....in terms of price.

But I can say that oil is getting heavier.....we are going to deeper waters, taking on more expensive projects....and exporting countries are all cannabolizing their exports with growing internal demand....and/or declining production aside from a few countries.

in 5-7 yrs....$300 is easily doable.

The deep sea oil fields will be getting smaller and smaller....mexico will be a net importer of oil....all new hybrids or NG cars will not be phased in to make up the lost amount of oil...etc.etc.etc

Reevaluating Coal

Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:26:22 -0400

P/E's and fair value should be spoken about with respect to their growth....

and as stvcomment or a look at their PEG ratio...a measly .44 means this sucker is underpriced and going higher.

I don't see coal prices drastically decreasing anytime soon (next few yrs) in fact, peak exports of oil and the introduction of electric cars by 2010 could have robust pricing for a very long time.

Petrobras: Buy and Sit Tight Like Soros

Tue, 19 Aug 2008 20:59:32 -0400

Heebner is a great fund manager....I agree with most of his decisions on the companies he invests in.......don't take short term volitility to heart.

If you whip out the 10 best stocks over the last 10 years....I am willing to bet almost all of them have had corrections of over 30-40% on their way to returning thousands if not tens of thousands of percents. of returning 30-200 baggers over the 10 year period.

Wind's Our Future, but Natural Gas Is Now

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 20:59:08 -0400

My vote goes to all electric vehicles.

infastructure is there.

Control pollution at the power plants......add whatever you want to generate the power. its much more resiliant than NG cars.

You can add coal power plants, NG, Nuclear, wind solar, etc.

Wind's Our Future, but Natural Gas Is Now

Thu, 07 Aug 2008 20:56:33 -0400

I don't think hydrogen will really ever get off its feet. its too inefficient to break down molecules.

I mean think about all the energy lost to gather the energy....transmist the energy...and then use energy to break the molecules apart. How much power actually gets stored? like 10-25% of the initial amount of the source? This doesn't seem very efficient at all....battery technology today is MUCH more efficient than that. basically limited to the 35-40% loss of the transmission, and a little to charge the batteries.

NG may have large reserves.....and the E&P companies are proving up large reserves of shale gas. But what is the EROEI on shale gas? Are the flow rates comparable to conventional gas? Do we have enough rigs to drill to maintain growth?

We know from oil that there is a lot of shale out there....but the EROEI is low.....and the cost of infastructure is high......and to do any meaningful addition of FLOW rates to the existing production is difficult.

I feel this is the same for shale gas...although I do own the shale E&P companies for investment.

efficiency and flow rates.......

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Tue, 24 Jun 2008 17:23:41 -0400

We can argue all day....eventually we will find out when the peak is....I am willing to bet we see a peak within 10 yrs from now. I guess we will have to wait and see:)

Energy Demand: China vs. the World

Mon, 23 Jun 2008 22:57:41 -0400

great article.....good job with the graphs on displaying the demand destruction and growth of each country/area.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Mon, 23 Jun 2008 22:22:30 -0400

Well.....it depends on many factors.

I think the argument for peak oil happening right now is legit. let's review some things happening in the industry.

1) Conventional sources are depleting...they have been since the first well ever drilled. But the flow rates of convential oil are flat at best....and most likely declining.

2) The decline rates need to be absorbed and reversed for peak oil to be only a theory, therefore unconventional sources need to be developed in order to reverse the decline of conventional oil.

3) Each year oil production goes higher.....the declines also go higher from the existing base. Let's say you have a steady decline rate of 6% on the existing fields....if you produce 85 MBPD...you need 5.1 MBPD just to remain flat. if you produce 100MBPD...you need 6 MBPD to remain flat....and this number grows exponentially on the way up. its almost like trying to travel the speed of light and your mass approaches infinity the faster you travel.

4) Each passing year high EROEI oil is being replaced with lower EROEI oil. this can be from the same exact oil field (heavier oils are at the bottom of the well and need water + pressure to be lifted) and the low hanging fruit is taken first from the oil sands or anywhere else....and replaced with harder to extract or mining operations.

5) lower EROEI projects yield less return and make it less economical to produce....raising production costs.

6) Less free energy to do work results from all the above....either decreased total production, replacing high EROEI oil with low EROEI oil with flat production, etc.

We are seeing the industry bomb rushing oil shales, oil sands, and deep sea deposits. This indicates that all conventional oil open to major oil companies and most national oil companies are found....otherwise the high margin easy to pump oil would be developed....and is being developed. This is proof in itself....although I believe world oil production could be lifted to higher levels if the major private oil companies had access to all area's....although the decline rates on the backside of the curve would be much more viscious.

I think peak oil is much easier to see once its in the rear view mirror.....but replacing 5 MBPD year after year for every single year is pretty difficult to do. look at the projects coming online....and we aren't seeing anywhere close to that number coming online.

We would need to add a cumulative 25 MBPD production of new oil the next 5 years to remain flat.......where is this going to come from? I don't see this happening with oil sands or shales....as the above ground infastructure isn't in place to grow that quickly.....furthermor... are replacing high EROEI oil....so the number is more like 31-32MBPD since the EROEI is lower....thats 36MBPD more than what we are producing today.....and if you want to reach 100MBPD in 5 yrs...we would need to find 50 MBPD. Thats not possible in my view.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Mon, 23 Jun 2008 20:18:28 -0400

Let's assume all oil is abiotic oil...peak oil still applies.

peak oil is not a theory but a fact.

you can only produce as much oil as the rate of regeneration. The regeneration can form pools of oil in pockets under the earth's crust....but if we could extract at infinite rates....we would hit a peak at some point (when the pools are drained) and decline to the rate of the regeneration source.

In order for peak oil to be incorrect....we would need to be able to extract a resource at infinites rates from an infinite source...otherwise peak oil is true. nothing really to argue about.

ergo sum Peak oil is fact....its just a matter of when.

and we may never hit the peak rate of extraction in terms of physical limitation of equipment.....because most of the oil becomes uneconomical to produce at some point....and alternatives come online to make oil outdated.

Now is it possible to find another source of energy to outdate oil? is it possible to make renewable technology solely on renewables....I dunno......but we will find out at some point.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Sun, 22 Jun 2008 22:14:11 -0400

I think the fact that we have so many responses that counter his article is pretty amazing.

peak oil is starting to be understood by most everyone on the net who reads the financial sections.

Good job to everyone.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Sun, 22 Jun 2008 16:03:29 -0400

What commodity in the world goes up in price and is less plentiful on the market?

Oil:)

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Sun, 22 Jun 2008 14:08:07 -0400

Here is an oil insider describing peak oil theory. He does a very good job of describing it.

youtube.com/watch?v=u5...

the person said this in 2005.

"The International Energy Agency (IEA) are forecasting 1.6% increase in oil demand. Last year it was over 3%, and this year it's forecast at 1.9%. This demand is coming from China, India, and as with the world, the world grows and develops. So if you extrapolate those numbers from where we are today, the world needs 130 million barrels a day. More than 50% more than what it's producing today within the next 25 years. At the same time the world is being consuming more oil since 1985 than what it's been finding. It's been catching up by revising the reserves of existing fields. That simply cannot continue, and if you take a very conservative 6% decline rate on the existing 85 million barrels a day of production and assume we don't develop any new oil or find any new oil, which is obviously not correct, but then the production which we currently have will drop to 15 million barrels a day in that 25 year period. This basically means that we need to find over 100 million barrels a day of new inverted common oil. In my view, sitting where I am in the industry at the moment, and looking how difficult it is to find oil; the big oilfields have been found, I firmly believe that is not possible. "

Basically we need to find 100 MPD of new oil.....and according to the CEO of Linden oil in sweden.....its not possible.

Black Gold or Yellow Gold?

Sun, 08 Jun 2008 16:00:13 -0400

the US produces 5.5 million barrels of oil....and I believe the demand is 21 million barrels.

do the numbers and we actually import 73.8% of our oil.

We are also starting to import more gasoline.......we may be worse off than you think.

Options Trader: Monday Outlook

Mon, 02 Jun 2008 19:03:17 -0400

If we are at peak oil....at what price do we kill demand at 3-5-10% decline rates year over year. Its not a fact if people can afford it or not....its the fact that oil will need to be priced out of 50-80% of the affordability of the population world wide....and of those who mainly import oil. Higher mileage cars keep increasing that price point...technology just drives it higher and higher with break even points at possibly $100/gallon if technoloy can squeeze 300MPG out of a 1 gallon of gas.

I think who said it best was an oil executive at imperial oil company.

Journalist: The second question is about an intense debate that have been circulating in some Swedish newspaper the last couple of days. It has got to do with the Peak Oil theory and the ideas of professor Kjell Aleklett in Uppsala University. I know that Lundin has in partly been financing his researches and his work. What's your view on the Peak Oil theory and professor Aleklett's ideas about that?

Ashley Heppenstall: I very much believe in the theory of Peak Oil. I think the big question is when will Peak Oil occur. It's no question in my mind that it will occur. I think that the for the last two or three years we've been talking about Peak Oil as a company and we were interested in helping professor Aleklett in terms of that work because we think it's extremely important. The simple facts are to me very easy to understand. We have continued increasing demand for oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) are forecasting 1.6% increase in oil demand. Last year it was over 3%, and this year it's forecast at 1.9%. This demand is coming from China, India, and as with the world, the world grows and develops. So if you extrapolate those numbers from where we are today, the world needs 130 million barrels a day. More than 50% more than what it's producing today within the next 25 years. At the same time the world is being consuming more oil since 1985 than what it's been finding. It's been catching up by revising the reserves of existing fields. That simply cannot continue, and if you take a very conservative 6% decline rate on the existing 85 million barrels a day of production and assume we don't develop any new oil or find any new oil, which is obviously not correct, but then the production which we currently have will drop to 15 million barrels a day in that 25 year period. This basically means that we need to find over 100 million barrels a day of new inverted common oil. In my view, sitting where I am in the industry at the moment, and looking how difficult it is to find oil; the big oilfields have been found, I firmly believe that is not possible. Therefore, the only thing that can give is that something got to happen on the demand side. Today is 70% of oil consumption used in transportation. Whether we like it or not, people talk about alternative forms of fueling transportation, we haven't found a viable substitute at this point. Even if one looks at electricity or electrical cars, the huge costs in terms of transferring our fleet to electricity will mean that it will take years to be able to achieve that. So I do agree with the Peak Oil theory. The big question is when it occurs. Ultimately, if we do reach the Peak Oil then oil prices are going to go up and at some point it's got to have an impact on demand. The world's a very bright place; there's a lot of intelligent people around and somebody will find an alternative. That's in part, I think, driving the oil price, or part of the oil price, today.

Oil Manipulations Exposed

Tue, 27 May 2008 23:22:09 -0400

For abiotic oil to save the day....the rate of that would need to regenerate itself at hundreds of millions of barrels a day.

I highly doubt that we can grow exponential and have the RATE of oil production meet our demand......abiotic, if true, could only cover a very small portion of demand.

There is nothing on this earth or solar system that can cover exponential growth.....the argument can be food, metals, energy, etc. Sure we can probably produce a lot more of food or energy...or possibly metals from other metals....but we aren't god...and we cannot make something from nothing when it comes to that point.

Baidu: A Train Heading for Derailment?

Sun, 04 May 2008 14:03:39 -0400

As peak oil approaches....oil prices/fuel prices will rise...rise....rise..m... airline companies will go bankrupt as we are seeing. As prices rise all around the world...people will have to focus a larger portion of their income on energy/food/basic needs. I would suspect air travel to drastically decrease from the retail sector as time goes on. As technology progresses...businesse... will also travel less as teleconferencing will be preferred from a cost and time basis.

A companies fair value is both present value and forward looking.....I would see airlines as horrible investments as I think they will all go bankrupt with time if they continue to use jet fuel....and there isn't many alternatives right now. Biofuel with a 60-70% energy density of jet fuel most likely can't be used (maybe?). This is all coming from someone within the aerospace industry.

More and more people will spend time online....as they can't afford to drive around when fuel prices are $8-10-12/gallon in the near future. Baidu is a market leader......Google hasn't been able to take market share from them.....and Baidu plays on an uneven playing field....not held to US regulations....which I see as a HUGE advantage.

The shares are overpriced some....but nothing hugely out of the ordinary for the growth they are experiencing and will experience.

Just MO.