AndyMan

Oil Is Still the Key to U.S. Economic Future

most things are a joke.

I mean.....you realize that when they test cars they take a reading of so many particles per gas emitted.....you could measure it in parts per million or some other form....but its a percentageof emission from a tailpipe.

So you could emit a very high amount of a toxic substance but as long as you emit a shitload more non-toxic byproducts...you are ok...since its a percentage. This just doesn't make sense to me????

Shouldn't we be looking at total byproduct of toxins released per mile? Is it possible to have a very lean running car which emits hardly any toxins on a per MPG basis....but might be 100% toxins when coming from the tailpipe......but the overall toxin amount emitted per mile is just a fraction of a percent of what emitted from our cars today?

wouldn't that be the ultimate goal of a car anyway? efficiency.

I don't think most of the policies are well thought out, and I am questioning how this government is run. I can't believe that our government is this inept, I think there is a higher power running our government......whomever that may be....yea conspiracy theory stuff. who knows.

I just DO NOT want them making any decisions at all. I want to choose how to live my life....and spend my money.

Stay Away from U.S. Treasuries - Invest in Energy Stocks

We first need to cut spending like no other....abolish the fed reserve, get rid of departments on the federal level...shrink government everywhere we can....let the market control interest rates, etc.

We should have a recession...let credit contract and build a solid foundation.

Once we do these steps.....businesses will come back...taxes will be low.....and people will need to work again. Borrowing will decrease...home prices will probably continue to fall to affordable levels....the price of education will fall.....the dollar with strengthen...commodities will cheapen.....and savers will not get killed through decreased purchasing power.




On Jun 15 04:50 PM jack kreg wrote:

> A1234, you are right about the coming collapse of the Obama dollar,
> with Trillion $$/year borrowing, and FED buying up 30yr treasury's,
> sure the US dollar is expected to weaken alot in coming years. <br/>Why
> not cut this extrodinary explosion in gov spending, infact, if the
> economy seems to be getting on track, why not cancel the "Stimulus",
> that would cut the deficit a cool Trillion over the next year or
> so.
> Then, with NGV's and a strengthen dollar, at least relative to a
> collaspe, America's cost of energy will be lower, AND we will be
> buying our energy from ourselves, paying American salary's instead
> of OPEC's bank accounts,
> And please dont forget where much of the $$ that funds ME terrorist
> organizations, PS, from American car drivers.
> So, lets buy an American fuel, NG.

My Thoughts on Oil

I see a lot of people commenting about GDP....GDP really isn't a good indicator of anything.

Its a doctored number....and only measures output.

Say you are building cities......you build 1 city per year on top of all the cities the years before. GDP is 1 city. So 1 extra city for people to live in.

Let's say a disaster comes and knocks down a city that your country has previously built. The next year the GDP doubles and rebuilds one city that was knocked down and builds 1 new city.

GDP doubles....yet only 1 new city was added. Productivity collectively has only grown in real terms by 1 city from the previous year before.

I think GDP numbers aren't a good measure to go by...and are definitely manipulated to some degree....just MO. What effect does this have? The government overinflated GDP and underinflated inflation.....when in real value.....we have been declining for years...some more than it shows. Most people value things by purchasing power of a commodity, gold or some other tangible thing to get a better gauge on productivity growth/dollar growth and inflation.

My Thoughts on Oil

I think what people tend to forget is energy density.....and when it comes to battery powered cars.....you can only pack so much energy in a battery....so battery technology and the weight of the vehicle become very important when considering batteris.

I am pretty sure you could manufacture gasoline or diesel engines that are more efficient than a battery powered car of todays technology. You could probably even muster a 300MPG vehicle....the problem lies in the size of the vehicle. No one in thier right mind would be driving such a small efficient vehicle on 4 wheels next to huge vehicles...and a huge vehicle could be a chevrolet aveo...weighing 2400lbs....but a small fuel efficient vehicle might have a weight of only a few hundred pounds.

In order for vehicles to work with batteries of todays technology....I believe they would need to be a lot lighter....atleast if you are going to go any distance with them.

I look around me and everyone strives to be the most inefficient they can be. Its even engraved into most peoples DNA.

I mean...lets take a look at girls for instance. They typically like guys who own vehicles who suck down gas.....trucks, sports cars, luxury cars....limo's, airplanes (huge plus there), etc.

How much action does the guy get for taking a bus or train? come on!

Think about the size of homes....striving to be bigger and bigger....and half the house isn't even used....bigger TV's etc.

We need the price of oil to increase in real terms for anything to change....oil has been up and down with money supply growth/destruction and nothing else really.

Americans Forget High Oil Prices Too Quickly

I bought my Chevrolet Aveo brand new in 2005 for $7,700 at a huge discount sale.


You can buy cars under $10,000.


Oil will go higher at some point....this is all demand destruction from the financial fall out....oil is just trading alongside the stock market it seems. Just be patient...wait for the investment to dry up in new projects...which it is....and wait for the declines from conventional oil to set in.....pick up the cheap shares today...collect the dividends...and wait.


On Dec 08 06:41 PM Wadhamite wrote:

> I am awaiting the day when China produces and sells in the USA a
> $10,000 fuel-efficient small car. Does anyone really doubt that it
> will happen? When it does, the implications for "big oil" and "Detroit
> 3" should be obvious. And, in today's cheap-oil and auto-bailout
> scenario, there might be just enough time for America to beat the
> Chinese. If we lose this opportunity, it's gone for a long time.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

We can argue all day....eventually we will find out when the peak is....I am willing to bet we see a peak within 10 yrs from now. I guess we will have to wait and see:)

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Well.....it depends on many factors.


I think the argument for peak oil happening right now is legit. let's review some things happening in the industry.

1) Conventional sources are depleting...they have been since the first well ever drilled. But the flow rates of convential oil are flat at best....and most likely declining.

2) The decline rates need to be absorbed and reversed for peak oil to be only a theory, therefore unconventional sources need to be developed in order to reverse the decline of conventional oil.

3) Each year oil production goes higher.....the declines also go higher from the existing base. Let's say you have a steady decline rate of 6% on the existing fields....if you produce 85 MBPD...you need 5.1 MBPD just to remain flat. if you produce 100MBPD...you need 6 MBPD to remain flat....and this number grows exponentially on the way up. its almost like trying to travel the speed of light and your mass approaches infinity the faster you travel.

4) Each passing year high EROEI oil is being replaced with lower EROEI oil. this can be from the same exact oil field (heavier oils are at the bottom of the well and need water + pressure to be lifted) and the low hanging fruit is taken first from the oil sands or anywhere else....and replaced with harder to extract or mining operations.

5) lower EROEI projects yield less return and make it less economical to produce....raising production costs.

6) Less free energy to do work results from all the above....either decreased total production, replacing high EROEI oil with low EROEI oil with flat production, etc.


We are seeing the industry bomb rushing oil shales, oil sands, and deep sea deposits. This indicates that all conventional oil open to major oil companies and most national oil companies are found....otherwise the high margin easy to pump oil would be developed....and is being developed. This is proof in itself....although I believe world oil production could be lifted to higher levels if the major private oil companies had access to all area's....although the decline rates on the backside of the curve would be much more viscious.

I think peak oil is much easier to see once its in the rear view mirror.....but replacing 5 MBPD year after year for every single year is pretty difficult to do. look at the projects coming online....and we aren't seeing anywhere close to that number coming online.

We would need to add a cumulative 25 MBPD production of new oil the next 5 years to remain flat.......where is this going to come from? I don't see this happening with oil sands or shales....as the above ground infastructure isn't in place to grow that quickly.....furthermor... are replacing high EROEI oil....so the number is more like 31-32MBPD since the EROEI is lower....thats 36MBPD more than what we are producing today.....and if you want to reach 100MBPD in 5 yrs...we would need to find 50 MBPD. Thats not possible in my view.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Let's assume all oil is abiotic oil...peak oil still applies.

peak oil is not a theory but a fact.

you can only produce as much oil as the rate of regeneration. The regeneration can form pools of oil in pockets under the earth's crust....but if we could extract at infinite rates....we would hit a peak at some point (when the pools are drained) and decline to the rate of the regeneration source.


In order for peak oil to be incorrect....we would need to be able to extract a resource at infinites rates from an infinite source...otherwise peak oil is true. nothing really to argue about.

ergo sum Peak oil is fact....its just a matter of when.

and we may never hit the peak rate of extraction in terms of physical limitation of equipment.....because most of the oil becomes uneconomical to produce at some point....and alternatives come online to make oil outdated.

Now is it possible to find another source of energy to outdate oil? is it possible to make renewable technology solely on renewables....I dunno......but we will find out at some point.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

I think the fact that we have so many responses that counter his article is pretty amazing.

peak oil is starting to be understood by most everyone on the net who reads the financial sections.

Good job to everyone.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

What commodity in the world goes up in price and is less plentiful on the market?

Oil:)

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Here is an oil insider describing peak oil theory. He does a very good job of describing it.

youtube.com/watch?v=u5...

the person said this in 2005.

"The International Energy Agency (IEA) are forecasting 1.6% increase in oil demand. Last year it was over 3%, and this year it's forecast at 1.9%. This demand is coming from China, India, and as with the world, the world grows and develops. So if you extrapolate those numbers from where we are today, the world needs 130 million barrels a day. More than 50% more than what it's producing today within the next 25 years. At the same time the world is being consuming more oil since 1985 than what it's been finding. It's been catching up by revising the reserves of existing fields. That simply cannot continue, and if you take a very conservative 6% decline rate on the existing 85 million barrels a day of production and assume we don't develop any new oil or find any new oil, which is obviously not correct, but then the production which we currently have will drop to 15 million barrels a day in that 25 year period. This basically means that we need to find over 100 million barrels a day of new inverted common oil. In my view, sitting where I am in the industry at the moment, and looking how difficult it is to find oil; the big oilfields have been found, I firmly believe that is not possible. "


Basically we need to find 100 MPD of new oil.....and according to the CEO of Linden oil in sweden.....its not possible.

Black Gold or Yellow Gold?

the US produces 5.5 million barrels of oil....and I believe the demand is 21 million barrels.

do the numbers and we actually import 73.8% of our oil.

We are also starting to import more gasoline.......we may be worse off than you think.

Oil Manipulations Exposed

For abiotic oil to save the day....the rate of that would need to regenerate itself at hundreds of millions of barrels a day.

I highly doubt that we can grow exponential and have the RATE of oil production meet our demand......abiotic, if true, could only cover a very small portion of demand.

There is nothing on this earth or solar system that can cover exponential growth.....the argument can be food, metals, energy, etc. Sure we can probably produce a lot more of food or energy...or possibly metals from other metals....but we aren't god...and we cannot make something from nothing when it comes to that point.