AndyMan

Today in Commodities: A Fitting End

I don't think the fed can raise interest rates.....the market will try to force them. Since most of americas debt is short term ARMs.....they will need to print and print just to cover the massive interest on the debt. We will be money printing machines.

My Thoughts on Oil

I see a lot of people commenting about GDP....GDP really isn't a good indicator of anything.

Its a doctored number....and only measures output.

Say you are building cities......you build 1 city per year on top of all the cities the years before. GDP is 1 city. So 1 extra city for people to live in.

Let's say a disaster comes and knocks down a city that your country has previously built. The next year the GDP doubles and rebuilds one city that was knocked down and builds 1 new city.

GDP doubles....yet only 1 new city was added. Productivity collectively has only grown in real terms by 1 city from the previous year before.

I think GDP numbers aren't a good measure to go by...and are definitely manipulated to some degree....just MO. What effect does this have? The government overinflated GDP and underinflated inflation.....when in real value.....we have been declining for years...some more than it shows. Most people value things by purchasing power of a commodity, gold or some other tangible thing to get a better gauge on productivity growth/dollar growth and inflation.

My Thoughts on Oil

I think what people tend to forget is energy density.....and when it comes to battery powered cars.....you can only pack so much energy in a battery....so battery technology and the weight of the vehicle become very important when considering batteris.

I am pretty sure you could manufacture gasoline or diesel engines that are more efficient than a battery powered car of todays technology. You could probably even muster a 300MPG vehicle....the problem lies in the size of the vehicle. No one in thier right mind would be driving such a small efficient vehicle on 4 wheels next to huge vehicles...and a huge vehicle could be a chevrolet aveo...weighing 2400lbs....but a small fuel efficient vehicle might have a weight of only a few hundred pounds.

In order for vehicles to work with batteries of todays technology....I believe they would need to be a lot lighter....atleast if you are going to go any distance with them.

I look around me and everyone strives to be the most inefficient they can be. Its even engraved into most peoples DNA.

I mean...lets take a look at girls for instance. They typically like guys who own vehicles who suck down gas.....trucks, sports cars, luxury cars....limo's, airplanes (huge plus there), etc.

How much action does the guy get for taking a bus or train? come on!

Think about the size of homes....striving to be bigger and bigger....and half the house isn't even used....bigger TV's etc.

We need the price of oil to increase in real terms for anything to change....oil has been up and down with money supply growth/destruction and nothing else really.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

We can argue all day....eventually we will find out when the peak is....I am willing to bet we see a peak within 10 yrs from now. I guess we will have to wait and see:)

Energy Demand: China vs. the World

great article.....good job with the graphs on displaying the demand destruction and growth of each country/area.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Well.....it depends on many factors.


I think the argument for peak oil happening right now is legit. let's review some things happening in the industry.

1) Conventional sources are depleting...they have been since the first well ever drilled. But the flow rates of convential oil are flat at best....and most likely declining.

2) The decline rates need to be absorbed and reversed for peak oil to be only a theory, therefore unconventional sources need to be developed in order to reverse the decline of conventional oil.

3) Each year oil production goes higher.....the declines also go higher from the existing base. Let's say you have a steady decline rate of 6% on the existing fields....if you produce 85 MBPD...you need 5.1 MBPD just to remain flat. if you produce 100MBPD...you need 6 MBPD to remain flat....and this number grows exponentially on the way up. its almost like trying to travel the speed of light and your mass approaches infinity the faster you travel.

4) Each passing year high EROEI oil is being replaced with lower EROEI oil. this can be from the same exact oil field (heavier oils are at the bottom of the well and need water + pressure to be lifted) and the low hanging fruit is taken first from the oil sands or anywhere else....and replaced with harder to extract or mining operations.

5) lower EROEI projects yield less return and make it less economical to produce....raising production costs.

6) Less free energy to do work results from all the above....either decreased total production, replacing high EROEI oil with low EROEI oil with flat production, etc.


We are seeing the industry bomb rushing oil shales, oil sands, and deep sea deposits. This indicates that all conventional oil open to major oil companies and most national oil companies are found....otherwise the high margin easy to pump oil would be developed....and is being developed. This is proof in itself....although I believe world oil production could be lifted to higher levels if the major private oil companies had access to all area's....although the decline rates on the backside of the curve would be much more viscious.

I think peak oil is much easier to see once its in the rear view mirror.....but replacing 5 MBPD year after year for every single year is pretty difficult to do. look at the projects coming online....and we aren't seeing anywhere close to that number coming online.

We would need to add a cumulative 25 MBPD production of new oil the next 5 years to remain flat.......where is this going to come from? I don't see this happening with oil sands or shales....as the above ground infastructure isn't in place to grow that quickly.....furthermor... are replacing high EROEI oil....so the number is more like 31-32MBPD since the EROEI is lower....thats 36MBPD more than what we are producing today.....and if you want to reach 100MBPD in 5 yrs...we would need to find 50 MBPD. Thats not possible in my view.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Let's assume all oil is abiotic oil...peak oil still applies.

peak oil is not a theory but a fact.

you can only produce as much oil as the rate of regeneration. The regeneration can form pools of oil in pockets under the earth's crust....but if we could extract at infinite rates....we would hit a peak at some point (when the pools are drained) and decline to the rate of the regeneration source.


In order for peak oil to be incorrect....we would need to be able to extract a resource at infinites rates from an infinite source...otherwise peak oil is true. nothing really to argue about.

ergo sum Peak oil is fact....its just a matter of when.

and we may never hit the peak rate of extraction in terms of physical limitation of equipment.....because most of the oil becomes uneconomical to produce at some point....and alternatives come online to make oil outdated.

Now is it possible to find another source of energy to outdate oil? is it possible to make renewable technology solely on renewables....I dunno......but we will find out at some point.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

I think the fact that we have so many responses that counter his article is pretty amazing.

peak oil is starting to be understood by most everyone on the net who reads the financial sections.

Good job to everyone.

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

What commodity in the world goes up in price and is less plentiful on the market?

Oil:)

The 'Peak Oil' Myth: New Oil Is Plentiful

Here is an oil insider describing peak oil theory. He does a very good job of describing it.

youtube.com/watch?v=u5...

the person said this in 2005.

"The International Energy Agency (IEA) are forecasting 1.6% increase in oil demand. Last year it was over 3%, and this year it's forecast at 1.9%. This demand is coming from China, India, and as with the world, the world grows and develops. So if you extrapolate those numbers from where we are today, the world needs 130 million barrels a day. More than 50% more than what it's producing today within the next 25 years. At the same time the world is being consuming more oil since 1985 than what it's been finding. It's been catching up by revising the reserves of existing fields. That simply cannot continue, and if you take a very conservative 6% decline rate on the existing 85 million barrels a day of production and assume we don't develop any new oil or find any new oil, which is obviously not correct, but then the production which we currently have will drop to 15 million barrels a day in that 25 year period. This basically means that we need to find over 100 million barrels a day of new inverted common oil. In my view, sitting where I am in the industry at the moment, and looking how difficult it is to find oil; the big oilfields have been found, I firmly believe that is not possible. "


Basically we need to find 100 MPD of new oil.....and according to the CEO of Linden oil in sweden.....its not possible.

Oil Manipulations Exposed

For abiotic oil to save the day....the rate of that would need to regenerate itself at hundreds of millions of barrels a day.

I highly doubt that we can grow exponential and have the RATE of oil production meet our demand......abiotic, if true, could only cover a very small portion of demand.

There is nothing on this earth or solar system that can cover exponential growth.....the argument can be food, metals, energy, etc. Sure we can probably produce a lot more of food or energy...or possibly metals from other metals....but we aren't god...and we cannot make something from nothing when it comes to that point.