quality

4 Comments

    • ON: Mon Sep 1st 16:46 PM
      Commented on:
      Adams Express: A Cheap Closed-End Fund
      In looking deeper at the situatin I discovered I had not included a few small divis in the calculation of the total NAV return for ADX. Turns out the 5 year compound NAV return is 7.07% when those corrections were made. Still short of the S & P 500 index and even the SPY's performance but somewhat better nonetheless.
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    • ON: Mon Sep 1st 15:31 PM
      Commented on:
      Adams Express: A Cheap Closed-End Fund
      I appreciate the disclaimer note of Adamse, but I questioned the chart posted on the Adams Express website for the 5 yr performance history of ADX and the S & P 500 figure as well for that matter although the posted S & P 500 value is close enough to the SPY results to be possibly correct. The 5 yr chart on the Adams site for the S & P 500 shows a total annualized return of 7.6% through 6/30/08 yet the SPY showsannual return of only 7.42%.. There of course is some drag but I thought that a little high as the operating charges for SPY are soo modest. Still all and all they are close enough for Gvt work.

      But the #s for ADX are way off. There is no way that the NAV return for ADX has exceeded even the SPY results let alone the index itself. The NAV return for ADX has averaged only 6.75% per year for the 5 years since 6/30/03.

      Doing the #s there were dist/divs of $4.44 over 5 years on an intitial NAV of 13.06 with a close NAV on 6/30/08 of only $13.74. No way does that add up to an 8% compound annual rate. To get an 8% return in 5 years NAV would have had to rise to $19.18, less the effect of div compounding, or ADX would had to pay out $5.20 plus in divs/dist over the 5 years or some combination in-between to get to an 8% return.

      Only if the chart took the NAV div and then blended into at market discount and then valued the principal at NAV might one calc the higher 8% figure, but that's not possible as the principal would have to valued at mkt if your reupping at mkt. Incidentally the mkt return on ADX was less than the NAV return, because the discount increased from 03 to 08 from 9.6% to 13.1%. That could mean mkt returns will be better for the next 5 years but it definitely hurt mkt returns for the past 5 years.


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    • ON: Sun May 11th 10:48 AM
      Commented on:
      Home Builders Reluctant to Shrink Footprint
      Good points about the local character of the building industry. Your subject title is well supported by the text.

      Some of the builders will have to cut back or I believe many of them will fail unless they are willing to add equity capital at discounts to their posted book values.
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    • ON: Sun May 4th 21:41 PM
      Commented on:
      Morgan Stanley: What's Behind Mexico's Extraordinary Resilience?
      Interesting thesis that the current Mexican administration is underplaying the changes in energy policy to soften political opposition. Its a provacative observation and may well be true. I think by hook or by crook Mexico has gotten a good administration that is showing an impressive level of competence.
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