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m8

m8
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  • Williams Partners Doubles Down In The Utica [View article]

    Great article, thank you.
    Which is better ? WMB or WMZ ? Bit like KMI and KMP right ? (Mr Kinder just owned KMI). Anyone have a strong view on that ? Much appreciated.
    Apr 9, 2015. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Make Over 8.5% With A Multi-Sector CEF Bond Portfolio [View article]


    Sure thing. dreyfus is DHF. Bit of a roller coaster with 30% leverage.
    Apr 5, 2015. 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Make Over 8.5% With A Multi-Sector CEF Bond Portfolio [View article]

    Nice article. Thank you. Not knowing how they'll perform when the Fed begins to raise rates needs some coverage. I suggest looking at for duration. Can you supply the duration of your 7 funds.... ? (shame PHK is not there.. love that fund.. but NAV issues to a lot of people). To duration, its my belief that if you keep your duration low 3 to 4 years, the bonds will roll over into bonds of the new rate environment one we're off ZIRP and life will go on with a nice yield. There's a dreyfus high yield that has a 3 yr duration, paying out 9%+.

    :)
    Apr 5, 2015. 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 12.96% Advantage For 5 MLP Highest Yield, Lowest Price, April Dividend Dogs [View article]


    I like this approach, but how do you reconcile the possibility that a high yield predicts a reduction in dividend ? The Dow 30 are all stocks generally held to be around for a long time - big solid corporations. Not so with a broader universe of less substantial entities, right ? Linn energy comes to mind - they were fast about lowering the dividend, but how do we tell when others might ? Lower prices ? and so higher yields ? Value or a value trap. Need to do a lot more that simply rely on the analysts 12 month projection. Forward price projection in the energy patch are notoriously fickle.
    Apr 4, 2015. 12:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rocket Fuel May Be Swallowed By The Trend Of Programmatic In-House Advertising [View article]

    a bit harsh - but fair. I get the feeling FUEL's sales force might not quite be gettin it done. they're cutting edge technologically.

    anyone who sells stock short down 82% needs to review the principles of trade location.
    Feb 26, 2015. 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Case For A Crude Oil Boomerang [View article]
    If the front month spread differential begins to close (1st month discount to second) it means there are users of oil concerned they mat not be able to get what they need - its a matter of degree. So if the current front spread, April May, for example (March expires this week) were to suddenly come in to -30c (april under may), some balance has returned to the market.


    My reference to calls was made in response to an earlier comment that wanted to play a long position in the futures using calls on more distant months. The erosion of value due to rolling longs in a deep contango market make this a very difficult strategy from which to profit. The front spread is currently -80c. So if you're long WTI at say $50, on one day either last week or this, you have to sell that contract at $50 / barrel and buy the soon to be front month at $50.80. You're immediately 80c worse off. Now imagine doing that every month until storage allays are concerned. In 2009, Q1 saw 1 month spreads as deep as $9/month - you had to sell your mach oil at $35 and replace it with oil that cost you $44.
    That's what happens with any long investment strategy using the futures markets. If you want to be long oil think of it as existing either below ground or above ground. If owing it above ground (futures) subjects you to the costs I just described, own it below ground, so through equities in the majors - do all the leveraged length you like - the odds are far more favorable. Calls, call spreads.

    So to your question of $70 vs $12. Pull up a chart of the NYMEX WTI futures contract beginning in March of 2009 and overlay it on the chart of the USO ETF. The low in WTI futures $35, high $105 - $115. USO started the same period at $30 and never got above roughly $42 and all it owns are WTI futures contracts, nothing else. So there's your $70 to $12. Pull up the charts. Owning energy through the futures based ETF's is a fool's game.

    :)
    Feb 16, 2015. 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Case For A Crude Oil Boomerang [View article]
    Storage is not near full. Cushing, the delivery point for the WTI futures contract holds 41.5mil with capacity for 75 - 80 mil. But this time of year inventory builds, on average, every week through mid May so all eyes are on whether the limits are approached. The builds so far this year have been well above average however when the national inventories build at say 10.0mil, cushing often only builds 2mil. The front futures market 1st month vs 2nd month spread (currently ~ 80c under) will tell you how things look.

    See my earlier comment about buying calls in a deep contango market. the USO own futures contracts, nothing else. When WTI oil rallied $70+, USO never managed better than about a $12 gain.
    Feb 8, 2015. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Case For A Crude Oil Boomerang [View article]


    Buying calls in deep contango futures markets is a shocking trade other than for extermely short term time intervals. Pull up a chart of WTI vs the USO ETF. In march 2009 USO was trading in the low $30's, WTI $35. In the following oil price rise to well over $100 on several occasions, USO never traded much over $40. The value lost in rolling futures contracts in a deep contango market should a deal breaker every time.

    Oil is approaching one of two periods of every year when the weather can't punish shorts - the end of winter and the end of summer. . we're about out of the risk that a prolonged cold snap can run shorts in, refiners are about to "switch" which means less oil is refined (so stocks build)... to be leveraged long coming into such a physical market structure is battling some very serious headwinds. Far better is a strategy of long call spreads in the major stocks. They are far better insulated from front-end downside price vacuums.

    Not unlike gold, oil just experienced a massive liquidation of long term ownership and some of that is possibly being rebuilt - and who can fault that - but like the gold market it will probably swan around, with attractive volatility, for a considerable period of time. The $75 - $110 of the last 5 years has probably shifted down to $45 - $80 for the immediate future.
    Feb 8, 2015. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Of Industries About To Be Upended [View article]


    What a great article. Although I confess I'm more inclined to buy Intel than Coke on the valuation metrics you present probably because of the barriers to entry. Most salient, perhaps, is that the market has priced that which you address.
    Its somewhat a wrestle between branded and generic. Brand names in technology are on a far more wobbly footing than are brands in the consumer indicies.
    Feb 1, 2015. 09:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Capital Flight: What Western 'Analysts' Forget [View article]

    vandoo... i didn't know about the canadian oil hitting europe.. thx for that. that a new pipeline heading east ? that's pretty significant. more capacity to follow I'd think.
    Jan 18, 2015. 09:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Capital Flight: What Western 'Analysts' Forget [View article]

    I think Putin pales in comparison to the machinations of the US Corporate juggernaut. The global economy collapsed a while back in case you've forgotten, on the back of US corporate excesses.
    Jan 18, 2015. 01:22 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Capital Flight: What Western 'Analysts' Forget [View article]

    I agree. I think its all about the Crimea - Putin gets his seaport and the Ukraine is a distraction (but a nice feather in the cap - after all, Ukraine has five land grabs under its belt since 1922).
    Jan 18, 2015. 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Capital Flight: What Western 'Analysts' Forget [View article]
    The Russian central bank will surely sure up their balance sheets the way the Fed did back when. Plenty of room on the balance sheet. Little harder to sell sovereign paper perhaps but lets not forget there's all that oil and gas and China not so far away.
    Jan 18, 2015. 12:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And The SSD Market [View article]


    tongue in cheek, but what does buy aggressively mean ? louder ? your analysis is great. it cuts to the chase. this entire article and subsequent stream of comments is a wonderful source of information to us quasi-tech lay-persons. thanks to all.
    Jan 17, 2015. 02:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The Best Dividend Champion To Invest In Today? [View article]

    DOV. I don't see the relative value. Significantly higher debt, significantly lower yield.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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