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m8

m8
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  • Kinder Morgan Continues Down Unsustainable Path [View article]
    "However, at over 2 billion shares outstanding....what's another 20 million?"

    my daughter says something like that to me, I tell her show me how to save 20 rather than spend an extra 20. every storm starts with a breeze.

    and your comment that capex remains the only unfunded expense is IMHO a big can of worms.

    KMI wants to be a steady dividend grower, god bless em, but if it can only do so with financial engineering it will be a bumpy ride that may quite possibly end in tears.
    Jul 18, 2015. 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Continues Down Unsustainable Path [View article]

    mind sharing your safer, more conservatively run holdings ? I have a similar appetite.

    separately, can anyone tell the sensitivity to oil and NG prices, so example a $10 drop in the oil price will reduce FCF by x%, ditto for a 50c change in NG prices ?

    out of KMI long ago. always interested in it but don't fully understand the financials and sensitivities.
    Jul 18, 2015. 12:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Photo That Will Convince You To Sell China [View article]
    what if this guy is an out of work PhD who used to write algo's ? selling banana's doesn't mean he's brainless (his algo's weren't so good ?).
    Jul 7, 2015. 08:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Overweight But I Still Want More Income [View article]

    Little tangential, but which other energy MLP's and refiners do you like ? I hold NTI and with it NS - both have excellent growth plans. Anyone here like seemingly undervalued smaller companies such as UAN and CVRR, or HFC ? And surely the refiners are solid dividend champs - seasonally, granted, MRO VLO and now that merged Kinder Morgan - KMI is back down near pre merger valuations, and WMB is 10% off its Kinder-style recontruction, arguably with better growth prospects than KMI.

    This is an excellent flow of comments from a thoughtful piece that strikes to the heart of most of us SA-ites. So thanks to all.
    Jun 14, 2015. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Unilever Is Currently A Better Investment Than Procter & Gamble [View article]


    What is the Asian equivalent of unilever and P&G ? Surely thats where the growth lies ? on demographics.. every chinese and indian male shaving ? grabbing a bar of "Dove", brushing their teeth ....
    Jun 3, 2015. 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Long-Term Story Remains Intact [View article]

    Define bright. Surely the best returns among them is the only relevant barometer.
    May 17, 2015. 09:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technology: Long-Term Story Remains Intact [View article]
    Why does your position matter to anyone here ?
    May 17, 2015. 09:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deleverage Your Portfolio Before The Market Forces You To [View article]

    No its not. PHK is like buying something for $15 that pays you $1.65 every year. I've owned PHK for close to a decade with a double digit yield, so I'm on the author's side on this one. And I've watched the pro PHKs and the doomsdayers face off, and I still collect my double digit yield. What I've also done is watch the monthly and weekly RSI and exit above a particular reading and every year I get them back buck or two lower. They have a doomsdayer vomit once a year. Now when Gross left, they cut back their leverage (never THAT high), so I've cut back my quantity accordingly. I've been expecting some softness and it hasn't come the last couple of days while all headlines speak of high yields and bonds selling off. Not PHK. Please explain !! Respect has to be given, nonetheless to some very basic principles being splashed around here. When things heat up, too much debt will bury you. Check assets, liabilities, coverage and quarterlies and as the saying goes, do something about risk before risk does something to you. Long live PHK !
    May 5, 2015. 09:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Partners Doubles Down In The Utica [View article]

    Great article, thank you.
    Which is better ? WMB or WMZ ? Bit like KMI and KMP right ? (Mr Kinder just owned KMI). Anyone have a strong view on that ? Much appreciated.
    Apr 9, 2015. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Make Over 8.5% With A Multi-Sector CEF Bond Portfolio [View article]


    Sure thing. dreyfus is DHF. Bit of a roller coaster with 30% leverage.
    Apr 5, 2015. 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Make Over 8.5% With A Multi-Sector CEF Bond Portfolio [View article]

    Nice article. Thank you. Not knowing how they'll perform when the Fed begins to raise rates needs some coverage. I suggest looking at for duration. Can you supply the duration of your 7 funds.... ? (shame PHK is not there.. love that fund.. but NAV issues to a lot of people). To duration, its my belief that if you keep your duration low 3 to 4 years, the bonds will roll over into bonds of the new rate environment one we're off ZIRP and life will go on with a nice yield. There's a dreyfus high yield that has a 3 yr duration, paying out 9%+.

    :)
    Apr 5, 2015. 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 12.96% Advantage For 5 MLP Highest Yield, Lowest Price, April Dividend Dogs [View article]


    I like this approach, but how do you reconcile the possibility that a high yield predicts a reduction in dividend ? The Dow 30 are all stocks generally held to be around for a long time - big solid corporations. Not so with a broader universe of less substantial entities, right ? Linn energy comes to mind - they were fast about lowering the dividend, but how do we tell when others might ? Lower prices ? and so higher yields ? Value or a value trap. Need to do a lot more that simply rely on the analysts 12 month projection. Forward price projection in the energy patch are notoriously fickle.
    Apr 4, 2015. 12:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rocket Fuel May Be Swallowed By The Trend Of Programmatic In-House Advertising [View article]

    a bit harsh - but fair. I get the feeling FUEL's sales force might not quite be gettin it done. they're cutting edge technologically.

    anyone who sells stock short down 82% needs to review the principles of trade location.
    Feb 26, 2015. 05:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Case For A Crude Oil Boomerang [View article]
    If the front month spread differential begins to close (1st month discount to second) it means there are users of oil concerned they mat not be able to get what they need - its a matter of degree. So if the current front spread, April May, for example (March expires this week) were to suddenly come in to -30c (april under may), some balance has returned to the market.


    My reference to calls was made in response to an earlier comment that wanted to play a long position in the futures using calls on more distant months. The erosion of value due to rolling longs in a deep contango market make this a very difficult strategy from which to profit. The front spread is currently -80c. So if you're long WTI at say $50, on one day either last week or this, you have to sell that contract at $50 / barrel and buy the soon to be front month at $50.80. You're immediately 80c worse off. Now imagine doing that every month until storage allays are concerned. In 2009, Q1 saw 1 month spreads as deep as $9/month - you had to sell your mach oil at $35 and replace it with oil that cost you $44.
    That's what happens with any long investment strategy using the futures markets. If you want to be long oil think of it as existing either below ground or above ground. If owing it above ground (futures) subjects you to the costs I just described, own it below ground, so through equities in the majors - do all the leveraged length you like - the odds are far more favorable. Calls, call spreads.

    So to your question of $70 vs $12. Pull up a chart of the NYMEX WTI futures contract beginning in March of 2009 and overlay it on the chart of the USO ETF. The low in WTI futures $35, high $105 - $115. USO started the same period at $30 and never got above roughly $42 and all it owns are WTI futures contracts, nothing else. So there's your $70 to $12. Pull up the charts. Owning energy through the futures based ETF's is a fool's game.

    :)
    Feb 16, 2015. 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Case For A Crude Oil Boomerang [View article]
    Storage is not near full. Cushing, the delivery point for the WTI futures contract holds 41.5mil with capacity for 75 - 80 mil. But this time of year inventory builds, on average, every week through mid May so all eyes are on whether the limits are approached. The builds so far this year have been well above average however when the national inventories build at say 10.0mil, cushing often only builds 2mil. The front futures market 1st month vs 2nd month spread (currently ~ 80c under) will tell you how things look.

    See my earlier comment about buying calls in a deep contango market. the USO own futures contracts, nothing else. When WTI oil rallied $70+, USO never managed better than about a $12 gain.
    Feb 8, 2015. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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